Sunday, April 27, 2008

MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 5

This week's rankings also serve as a soapbox about the foolishness of "results-ism". The Galaxy crushed the Goats this weekend 5-2 in the Superclasico. But yet, here they are, ranked a place below Chivas USA in the rankings. You don't get ranked higher than another team just by beating them, especially in front of your home fans.

That said, there's a new #1...

#1. New England. (Last week: #2, beat #1 FCD)

Winning 1-0 away is exactly the kind of result that Revs coach Steve Nichol built his career on. It's easy to forget that, before the Revs became an offensive powerhouse, they were a brutally ugly but efficient team.

#2. Dallas. (Last week: #1, lost to #2 Revs)

Last week, Dallas was in first by default. This week, they're in second because they couldn't extend their unbeaten run against New England. They had their chances against the Revs, but got punished by a cohesive, efficient team.

#3. DC United. (Last week: #5, beat #14 RSL)


The crushing win against league lapdogs Real Salt Lake was expected, so they barely deserve this ranking. Their first half against RSL was bad. Emilio still hasn't gotten back on track. And Fred, perhaps United's brightest player this season, went out with injury. But who would you pick over them in a cage match? And how about Gallardo's goal?

#4. Houston Dynamo (Last week: #2, lost to #8 Crew).


I might just cut and paste the following: "Houston looked good at times and will certainly get back on track at some point."

That said, Pat Onstad made a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes in goal. Reports of his demise have been, not only exagerated, but premature by years, but this team is only a couple of backup Tony Caig horror shows from digging itself into a very deep hole.

#5. Chicago Fire. (Last week: #6, beat #10 Colorado).


Well, the Fire should beat the Rapids in Chicago, so this isn't a game that will answer many questions about them (plus, I couldn't watch the game on HDNet...) But isn't it nice to see John Thorrington score a brace?

#6. Columbus. (Last week: #8, beat #3 Houston).
Is Alejandro Moreno ready for a career year? I'm still not sold on the Crew, but I've always thought that all they needed was a little more seasoning. Maybe they're there.

#7 Toronto. (Last week: #9, beat #4 KC).
Last week I said, "At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players." Amado Guevara puts on a great show and wins the game for the Reds.

The bad news? The fact that Guevara is on fire now can only mean one thing: he'll go nuts in a few weeks.

The other bad news? Just because Rohan Ricketts spent time in the premiership doesn't mean he got the better of KC's Harrington. I feel like each of Toronto's new signings and key players is like a character in a Greek tragedy, blessed with specific talents that will lead them to great success, but also each stricken with a fatal flaw. Robert can give incredible service, but seems to drift out of games. Ricketts is fast but might need a few tricks, as well as better distribution to be truly effective. Guevara is a star, but he's nuttier than squirrel doo.

#8. Kansas City. (Last week #4, lost to #9 TFC)
I think people need to get used to this: good teams will drop points in Toronto. So, despite the loss by KC, I feel like I got a better sense of who they are. Chance Myers and Michael Harrington did a lot of constructive things. Roger Espinoza needs some work. As commentator Bruce Arena pointed out, KC would play some good D before coughing up the ball needlessly. And the vaunted attack never quite got going.

#9. Chivas USA. (Last week #7, lost to #12 LAG)
The good: the Goats come back twice in 60 minutes. The bad: the Goats go down by three goals in the last 30 minutes, including two strikes from former leper Alan Gordon. Chivas looks like they're still trying to get into the season and injuries haven't helped. But I think they're a playoff team that can count themselves lucky that they don't have to play against an enraged Landon Donovan every week. That has a tendency to make things seem worse than they really are, which is how I'm going to view this past week's result.

#10. LA Galaxy. (Last week: #12, beat #7 CUSA)
Donovan leads the league in goals by a mile. Beckham leads the league in assists. And the Galaxy are a .500 team. Part of that is that the Galaxy are still great at making me smile: Xavier is good for at least one moment of comedy each game. I thought it was instructive that Gullit singled out young defender Sean Franklin for praise after the game. If the Gals are to be anything more than a .500 team, even with Donovan crushing the league, they need more contributions from players like Franklin.

Scary bad question for Gullit: Will the return of Carlos Ruiz help or hurt this team?

Scary good question for the league and its fans: How awesome would it be if the Gals and Chivas USA were fighting it out for the last playoff spot? It's early and midseason acquisitions can completely change teams, but both teams look to be on the fringe right now.

#11. New York. (Last week: #11, beat #13 SJ)
It's good that they managed to win without Angel, but they still look like a team that's missing something.

#12. Colorado. (Last week: #10, lost to #6 Chicago)
I didn't expect the kids to get it done away to Chicago-- that's asking for a lot.

#13. San Jose. (Last week: #13, lost to #11 NY)
They'll be in more games than they're out of. And if Peguero is able to recover the form he had in his first MLS stay, I woudln't be shocked to see the Quakes climb a little in the west.

#14. Real Salt Lake. (Last week: #14, lost to #5 DCU)
After crushing DCU at home, you kind of expected the Gulls to get crushed when they visited the District. And so it was.

Their next game against the Galaxy could be fascinating. If RSL cant' get anything positive out of that, is it too early to think about moves they need to make?

Next week (Last week: 3-4)
The next week looks awesome. We're going to learn alot. The two most enigmatic teams, KC and Cbus, face off. The Revs face a supposedly tough Chicago team.

Thursday
Toronto-NYRB- Toronto win
Revs-Chicago- Revs win
Crew-KC- Crew win
Dynamo-CUSA- Dynamo win
RSL-LAG- RSL win
SJ-FCD- FCD win
Rapids-DCU- DCU win

Monday, April 21, 2008

MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week Four

So, I've always wanted to try this, even though it seems like an impossible task.

It's one of those things that people argue about, mostly because they don't agree on what rankings should mean: do they mean the best team at this moment? Should they rank teams by their potential to reach the highest peak? Or should they reward consistency over the season?

For me, the answer is both. These attempted rankings combine both my assessment of a team's potential (which is why United isn't near the bottom) and their current form (which is why KC and Dallas do well).

To see if these rankings have any predictive power, I'm also going to test them against next week's results. Home teams will be considered favorites to win, unless a team is three spots above them in the rankings. In that case, a draw is predicted, unless the team is a total of six spots above their opponent in the rankings. We'll see...

1. FC Dallas. D looked shakey in the first couple of matches, but they might be settling down. Cooper is in form. That said, Dallas is first by default.

2. New England. I loved how they played in the face of adversity against Chicago and again against New York this past week. But ask yourself why they're always putting themselves into adverse situations?

3. Houston. A point on the road is good. Yes, they are in last place in the West. And I still don't know if Houston will be able to score, but I like the team otherwise. If Houston only has one problem, I expect that it will get fixed by Kinnear.

4. Kansas City. They are here because of results. I haven't watched enough games to get comfortable with the idea that Michael Harrington, Chance Myers, Kurt Morsink, Jack Jewsbury, Roger Espinoza and Tyson Wahl form the no-name backbone of an elite MLS team the same way that Brian Carrol, Brian Namoff and Josh Gros did with DC United. You underrate lesser known guys in MLS at your peril, so I'm not trying to do that here.

5. DC United. Gallardo might be an upgrade over Christian Gomez, but he doesn't give the team precisely what it needs, which is what Gomez did so well. The team also needs Ben Olsen's bite and leadership-- but Benny might not be returning soon. And Jaime Moreno is, indeed, a year older. The reworked defense has been both bad and unlucky. So why is United so high? C'mon. The team constructed to win the Champions Cup ought to be able to show a little professionalism in MLS and start winning games.

6. Chicago. I think they're underachievers. Justin Mapp had a good game yesterday against KC. Blanco was dangerous. Chad Barrett, when he wasn't imitating Shea Salinas, showed that he is useful. Frankowski does little things that MLS forwards don't do. But when you put it all together, they frequently look terrible.

7. Chivas USA. Something seems off in Goatland. Mendoza needs to develop into a true 10. Razov needs to stay healthy. Klejstan needs to stay on the field. Maybe the defeat against Dallas is because none of those things happened. But I'm not sure this year's Chivas is a #1 seed.

8. Columbus. They're 3-1-0, so it's probably harsh to rank them here, but I guess I just don't believe it. Then I look at their roster against DC:

1 - Will Hesmer (GK)
2 - Frankie Hejduk
4 - Gino Padula
5 - Danny O'Rourke
7 - Guillermo Barros Schelotto
10 - Alejandro Moreno
12 - Eddie Gaven 63
14 - Chad Marshall
16 - Brian Carroll
19 - Robbie Rogers 90
22 - Adam Moffat 85

To me, that looks like a good MLS roster, full of potential MLS superstars. That said, the Crew has been full of potential superstars for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked out well.

9. Toronto FC. I might be ranking them too high here, but I'm impressed by Robert's efficiency. Guevara is an MLS superstar. Jeff Cunningham can score goals. Edu is awesome. At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players.

10. Colorado. I know the kids are supposed to be budding superstars, all. Colin Clark, indeed, looks like the real deal, but I haven't watched enough of DiRaimundo and LaBrocca to say for sure. But I do know that young players hit walls and that Colorado's defense includes both Erpen and Burciaga. I think they're heading for a fall.

11. New York. I want to rank them highly. I really do. When Angel returns from injury (permanently), they'll do better. But I think we've seen the league pass this team by. They've got a lot of question marks all over the field (even up top: can Wolyniec still be spark plug off the bench?)

12. LA. They just look like a deeply flawed team. Some of the problems might be easier to fix (surely, somewhere in the world, there's got to be a better forward who will take the $70,000 that Alan Gordon is getting). But there's just too much non-descript talent on this team right now. That said, if any tandem in the league can put a team into the playoffs on pure talent and willpower, it is LD and Beckham.

13. SJ. LA pretty comprehensively handled SJ, but I think the California Derby should be good stuff this year. SJ really took it to Chicago and finally got their deserved points at Colorado. They are dangerous, but probably need a little more seasoning before they'll convert regularly.

14. RSL. Another team I'd like to rank more highly. I like Kreis's team-first philosophy. But outside of Kovalenko and Beckerman, is there anyone on the roster that isn't an enigma?

So, going by these rankings, here are the predictions for the week...

Thursday:
FCD-Revs: FCD win
Saturday:
TFC-KC: draw
Crew-Dynamo: draw
DCU-RSL: DCU win
Fire-Rapids: Fire win
Sunday:
LAG-CUSA: draw
NY-SJ: NY win

The Road to MLS Cup XIII, Week Four

1. LA-Houston
LA forward Alan Gordon was removed at halftime for the defensive-minded new acquisition Joey Franchino when the Galaxy was down a goal. Not a typical move for a team that's chasing a game, but in this case, it gave the Galaxy the possession they needed and they go on to score two goals.

The Galaxy are a weird team, huh? As much as I don't like the Gals geriatric movement where they essentially traded away all of their young prospects to make cap space for Xavier, Klein and Vanney, I do like the move for Franchino. His cap number is low (only $50,000) but he's a bulldog. Rumored personal issues probably contributed to his exit from New England, but the guy has bite-- something that the lackadaisical Galaxy frequently lack.

So where does this leave Gordon? I'll be curious to see whether he starts the next game on the bench.

But if David Beckham hasn't turned Gordon into a 10 goal striker, it looks like he might perform an even better trick with Landon Donovan. LD's got 5 goals in four games. Donovan continues to be a frustrating player-- when he gets mad, he starts playing at a level far above any other field player in MLS. The problem is that you never know when Donovan's going to respond that way. But Beckham's incisive passing makes it a little easier for Donvoan to be The Man. There's a lot to like about this partnership. Beckham probably won't challenge the all-time mark for most assists (26)in a season set by Carlos Valderrama (with a fair amount of help from Mamadou Diallo), but both he and Donovan are off to a fast start.

2. The Fire are who we thought they were.
Ironically, the first time the Fire control the run of play for a good chunk of a match, they lose, 1-0 at home to the Wizards. But while the Fire dominated for large periods, they showed their other side, too: for the first 15 minutes or so, the Fire simply boomed long balls forward from the defenders. The strategy makes no sense when you've got Cuahtemoc Blanco in the midfield. They looked terrible. Only the much-maligned Justin Mapp did anything constructive.

But then Blanco starts seeing more of the ball and the show starts. Blanco always looks like he's running in knee-deep mud, but somehow the ball just eludes defenders. And then he always makes the pass between two defenders with a Chicago player making a slight diagonal run. While some MLS teams seem to be able to pass effectively without creating danger (DC United, so far), the Fire frequently create maximum danger out of only one or two good passes. But whatever they gained from their penetrating passing, they lost through incoherence in front of goal. Chad Barrett pulled a Shea Salinas and sent a point blank shot in front of goal straight up. Gonzalo Segares and Andy Herron were sent in on goal but then couldn't decide who should shoot. And when Kansas dropped back to defend their lead, Chicago lacked aggression.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Early Season Players to Watch

A few players have caught my eye, for reasons both good and bad, early in this MLS season.

(1) Dominic Oduro. When he entered late in the Houston-FC Dallas match, I remember thinking "man, this guy is great. Look at that speed. Houston's clearly got no answer for that. Wow... look at this run. Great run. Now all he's got to do is pass the ball to the left and the on-rushing attacker will definitely socre. Yeah. Great run. Now just pass the ball. Just. Pass. The. Ball. Ugh."

Oduro's selfishness almost certainly cost FCD three points there.

He sat on the bench next week against New York.

(2) Laurent Robert. You know, for being a guy who was "playing" in the Premiership months ago, I really haven't noticed him much in the two games I've watched. That is, until he creates a chance out of nothing, like he did with a strange-looking dipping service against DC United, or as he did a couple of times against the Galaxy. What's the story with him? I think it's funny that opinions diverge quite a bit. See this sample:
"Laurent Robert, one of Toronto FC's recent acquisitions, looks past it. Many of his crosses sailed harmlessly out of bounds (ala Landon Donovan at the 2006 World Cup). Even worse, he’s either not fit or not trying."
--Grahame Frasier, MLS Outsider
Link

"Lauren Robert's free kick finds the rookie Jarrod Smith's head."
"Jeff Cunningham, who has not been a fan favorite early, finds his way in alone—off another nice ball from Robert, it should be noted—and suddenly, unexpectedly, unbelievably the Reds are poised to win." Toronto fan and SBI correspondent Duane G. Rollins
Link

So who's right? I think they both probably are. Players who are "past it" in England aren't necessarily past it in slower-paced leagues, like MLS. This is entirely separate from the question of quality (which is something I'd like to bring up to Frasier). A slow guy with good vision and great passing ability will have a job in MLS long, even after the league's quality has improved, simply because playing in the heat means that everyone is playing more slowly.

So, nothing about Robert impresses me. But then... boom... he creates a goal.

3. Alvaro Pires. This guy is made of lead, from head to toe. Lead feet, lead body, lead brains, lead gut (he could probably stand to drop a few pounds of lead). It's good to see someone with bite on the Galaxy, but he becomes a bit of a blackhole for both friend and foe: he'll disrupt attacks, but for both teams, unfortunately. Plus, he seems to spend an awful lot of time on the ground jawing at officials. He might be a useful MLS player but is so not the player that the Galaxy needs.

During the Toronto game, you just kept on waiting for LA's midfield to show a little dynamism outside of the Big Two. But there was no one making late runs into the box to slot home loose balls. There really weren't enough players making runs in general. It may partly be because Gullit doesn't want his defense-challenged team to commit too many resources forward. As it was, it appeared to be the DonoBecks show against Toronto. Ely Allen, at least, appeared willing to contribute, but he's clearly still learning.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

The Road to MLS Cup XIII, Week Three

(1)Whose League Is It Anyway?
So the Revs crush champions Houston 3-0 in their first game, setting themselves up as the league's best. But they have some injury issues, give up an early goal and red card in Chicago and lose to the Fire 4-0. Pretty bad, right? But the Revs stuck with that game as much as they could and then they have to travel to Kansas City's odd little ballpark, which looks like it's going to be a real fortress because the Wizards had won their first two there. And what do the Revs do? They beat KC 3-1 with goals from their teenage attacking substitutes, Nyassi and Mansally. So now, you've got to be thinking: wow, the Revs are for real and coach Steve Nichol's a genius.

So what did Saturday have for us? Steve Nichol is out-coached by Fernando Clavijo, who no one thinks is a genius, and the Revs lose 1-0 at home to the Rapids. Nyassi and Mansally are contained when Colorado clogs the midfield, and the Revs waste a ton of chances, making you wonder just how quickly Taylor Twellman can get healthy. So, it's not the Revs' league.

KC? Ives Galarcep thinks they might just be the best team in the league, but the loss to the Revs makes me think twice.

DC? After a 4-1 victory over Toronto FC, I was ready to forgive their week one loss to the Wizards. But then they get crushed-- 4-0-- by Real Salt Lake. It's not their league either.

Chivas USA? I think they've got the pieces to be the best, but those pieces are unfortunately injury-prone or older than the spoken word.

Dallas deserves some love: a pair of ties against good teams and a win over New York. Kenny Cooper is one fire. This backline-- Drew Moor, Duilio Davino, Adrian Serioux, Dax McCarty-- ought to be pretty good in MLS. Juan Toja is threatening to be the best player in the league. But then you think about how they were bossed around the field by Houston. You think about how disjointed the defense looked.

And Chicago? Along with Dallas, the other unbeaten team, but man, they looked awful against a supposedly toothless San Jose team. And they looked awful against Real Salt Lake, despite earning a point. And they looked about as bad as you can look when you win 4-0 against a 10 man New England.

So whose league is it? For now, I'm going with (1) Dallas, (2) Kansas City and (3) Chivas USA, but every team has a lot of question marks right now.

(2) The Weekend's Most Shocking Result?
There are a few strong contenders.
(A) Chad Barrett scores again. The graphics people on Fox Soccer Channel didn't believe it either: their graphic indicated that it was his first of the season.
(B) Real Salt Lake beating DC United 4-0. I mean, seriously? 4-0? When does Real ever beat anyone, let alone Supporters Shield winner DC, by four goals? (for what it's worth, the answer turns out to be: never-- the 4-0 victory was RSL's largest margin ever).
(C) Tony Caig kept a clean sheet. I didn't see the Houston-KC game, but I honestly wasn't expecting Caig to get another start after giving up 3 goals in his two previous games, with a solid majority being his fault. Then I looked to see who Houston's backup GK was. A kid named Corbin Waller. Here's an excerpt from his biogarphy on Yahoo Sports:
" "
That's right. THere's nothing on him. But you know what? I'd rather put Corbin Waller out there, with his empty bio, than Tony Caig with his stint in the premiership.

But Tony Caig got his clean sheet, so maybe there's a reason Dom Kinnear is a coach and I work in a cubicle.

3. Most embarassing performances?
If DC fans had recovered enough after drinking grain alchohol chased with vodka to help them forget their loss to Real Salt Lake, they had to be chuckling to themselves watching the LA Galaxy game, where Greg Vanney falls down instead of bodying up to Danny Dichio and allowing a goal, and then repeating the same trick half a game later to give up the game winning goal to Jeff Cunningham.

But United fans still shouldn't laugh too hard: I think we found out a little bit more about the pieces of United's reconstructed backline. Gonzalo "I'm not Peralta" Martinez has got range, some pace, helps distribute the ball cleanly out of the back and generally cleans up messes. Unforutnately, he wasn't playing Saturday night. Gonzalo "I'm not Martinez" Peralta was, and he had a disasterous night, before finally gifting the fourth goal to Real Salt Lake when heading the ball back to DC's keeper. It could have just been an off game for Peralta-- RSL's turf apparently is not easy to play on. But I'm beginning to feel like, if United is to have success this year, it will depend greatly on Martinez staying healthy and on the field.

I had to feel bad for Chivas USA's Eric Ebert, who did his best Greg Vanney impersonation by gifting Columbus with two goals after entering the match in the 64th minute. My guess is that the rookie doesn't start next week.

4. San Jose-Chicago
Here's the thing about the Quakes: they do have guys who can pass. Ronnie O'Briem followed up a completely anonymous performance against DC with a solid, unpredictable (in a good way) showing against Chicago. Ned Grabavoy may be the league's less-heralded #10, but I bet you he puts together a decent season. You might think Ramiro Corrales is garbage because you last remember him at the US national team level, but he's pretty good at the MLS level.

So how did San Jose lose?

Kei Kamara and Gavin Glinton seem to have developed a great, consistent partnership. The problem is that, while Kamara consistently whipped balls in, Glinton consistently missed the shot. San Jose put Chicago under tremendous pressure and really ought to have tied. But in the clutch, slow-motion moment when a ball is floating up invitingly, who is the Earthquake player to strike the ball from just feet in front of the Chicago goal?

Enter young Shea Salinas, who manages to shoot the ball at an approximately 89 degree angle so that it goes out harmlessly. Tough moment for a rookie, but ideally San Jose would have a late game finisher to handle stuff like that. They just don't, and it's really going to hurt this otherwise carefully constructed team.

5. LA-Toronto
This was the kind of game that gives equal amounts of fuel to Donovan haters and lovers. He and David Beckham have developed good rapport and Donovan's one of the few MLS players with the speed and intelligence to take advantage of some of Beckham's passes. Time and time again, Donovan went racing off with the ball, with three or four Toronto defenders trailing after him like tin cans on a Just Married car. Donovan fails each time. Now, these aren't necessarily easy chances-- he's running top speed with the ball with defenders closing in. But then Donovan, with a look of determination on his face, takes the ball, does a step over, leaves his defender stumbling like an outtake from NBA Ankle Breakers and shoots a hard, clean shot from distance. Goal.

But, as his teammates mob him, Donovan doesn't celebrate-- instead, he's got a furrowed brow. It's like he knows that he should have had 3 or 4 goals by that point so he needed to decide to play up to his potential for a brief moment in time to make up for it.

My take? The guy's by far the best American player. If he chokes a few chances here and there, keep in mind that other guys wouldn't have had the skill to even have those chances to choke. I'd pick him first on my sandlot team anytime.

But what about the rest of his team? I am no fan of Ruud Gullitt, but I liked how the Galaxy midfield defended as a unit, adjusting their positions to clog passing lanes. LA is a hard-working team, even on a day when temperatures on the field were above 100 degrees. But I'm not sure they're up to it. Beckham seems like a luxury. The rookies (and there were three of them starting) seem earnest, but they're not able to take advantage of the players created by Donovan and the Englishman. Galaxy forward Alan Gordon just isn't getting it done.

And so the Galaxy, despite creating so much more than their Canadian rivals, fall 3-2 at home. It doesn't seem fair. And yet... when David Beckham ends up being your last man on defense against Jeff Cunningham, one of the leagues speediest and deadliest forwards, something's wrong with the team. Cunningham didn't score that time, but what does it say about the Galaxy's defense that it happened at all? Of course, given Greg Vanney's performance, you wonder if the years he spent in France hadn't rubbed off on in, such was his insistence on surrender to the foreigners.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Does MLS know what it's doing with money?

The answer, according to Andrew Hush, is "no".
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524551&root=mls&cc=5901

He notes a few of the most ridiculous salaries (e.g. Nik Besagno's salary) and notes "Is it possible to reliably put such varying price tags on unproven players? According to the figures, plus what we have seen with our own eyes, no."

Well Andrew, I think the answer actually depends on what you mean by "reliable". His belief seems to be that MLS overpays based on "potential" (e.g. Project 40/Gen Addidas players) but that "the question of how much money an individual can make from a career in the league is pretty much answered as soon as he puts pen to paper on his first contract." So, the league isn't rewarding those who prove how well they play on the field.

I think Hush is a little guilty of arguing by anecdote, selecting some of the worst offenders (and he's done yeoman's work in sorting through those). So, I decided to look at Nik Besagno's draft and see if, in fact, MLS got it completely wrong in determining what to pay its players.

In the 2005 draft, there were 17 players that were put on developmental roster spots, earning a salary of $16,500 or less. They've had MLS careers of 1307 minutes, each. However, 11 of them (65%) are no longer in the league. The 6 who remain earn an average of $44,000 (only one is still a developmental player-- Amir Lowery).

There were 22 senior roster players out of the 2005 draft who played in 2005 (Tony Lochhead of New England would eventually play in 2006). They've had MLS careers averaging 2803 minutes. 9 (41%) are no longer in the league. Those that remain in the league have an average salary of $88,000.

We can break down the senior roster players into two categories: "high" salary (i.e. more than $40,000) and "medium salary (i.e. between $33,000 and $40,000) players. There were 9 high salary players, who have gone on to have careers averaging 3,111 minutes. 2 (22%) are no longer in the league. In contrast, the 13 medium salary players averaged 2590 minutes and 6 (46%) no longer ply their trade in MLS.

At first glance, it appears that MLS was, in fact, wise to pay the developmental players little and the senior roster players more. What's striking is that, even among the senior roster players, you've still got a very high rate of failure: MLS teams pick guys that don't stick in the league over 40% of the time. This could be impacted by guys that decide to play overseas (Will John, for example), but that's not a huge factor.

So, when Hush asks if there's a reliable way to put price tags on paper, I again go back to the question: what do you mean by reliable, especially when even the "good" players fail 40% of the time? Talent identification is a tough game, but it looks like, overall, the salaries paid do recognize who contributes on the field. Of course, that leaves completely open the question of whether MLS couldn't be doing a better job here.

But what about Hush's assertion that players' salaries are essentially set for life when they sign their first contract?

I'd consider 3000 minutes to be a pretty decent career for a fourth year MLS player, so I looked at each group of players to see if the 2005 developmental players who went on to log 3000 or more minutes were making substantially less in 2008 than their 2005 senior roster counterparts. Here's what I found:

Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $92,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $110,000

Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $65,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $55,000.

Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Played 3000 Minutes: $74,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $29,000.

A couple of things stick out: the 2005 high earners who have stuck around MLS but not had great careers are doing well-- this is largely the effect of Besagno and Kirk. But the other effect at work is that Besagno and Kirk are clearly still in the first contracts. To know if Hush is really right, we'd probably need to look at a few more years-- AND see what happens with Kirk and Besagno after their deals end this year. You want to tell them not to get too used to high life...

Thursday, April 10, 2008

CONCACAF Champions Cup Failure-- Is It the Salary Cap?

Jeff Carlisle has a few ideas about how to make MLS sides more competitive in the CONCACAF Champions Cup after yet another semi-final failure.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524521&root=mls&cc=5901

He notes that the salary cap puts MLS teams at a disadvantage. Well, that's definitely true with the Mexican clubs. But what about Saprissa? I imagine they've got a good salary budget but also that it's not ridiculously out of line with MLS. But MLS teams still haven't done well against Costa Rican squads.

If we can afford better players, why aren't we doing better? Costa Rican squads even pull off upsets of Mexican teams, something that MLS teams have only done once since the current home and away format was implemented in the 2002 tournament. In fact, the Costa Rican teams have done SIX times in that same time period.

So what's up? I can think of a few reasons:
(1) MLS players aren't used to the refs. Latin American refs aren't as likely to let the same challenges go as MLS refs do. You can also make the argument that CONCACAF refs simply suck, but frankly that's another question. MLS defenders need to be aware that the games will be called tightly and that home teams will generally get good calls. And... they need to adjust their games accordingly.

(2) MLS players aren't used to the playing style. I remember DC United going down to Mexico City in 2005 with a fairly good squad. They got their rears handed to them 5-0. The much-maligned David Stokes had clearly never seen anything like it. And Mike Petke, who might have, still got himself sent off. This is one of those things that I expected would be better with DC United this year. They've got guys who have played in Libertadores. They've got a healthy South American contingent. And, to their credit, I thought it looked like they knew what they were doing down at Pachuca. But it still wasn't quite enough.

(3) MLS players aren't used to the environment. Playing at Pachuca is hard. Playing at Saprissa is hard. Even Toronto's BMO Field isn't going to compare to the hostility of the crowds. But again, I thought MLS was moving in the right direction by getting more players who are accustomed to these environments. There's just one problem...

(4) Fitness does matter. Last summer's Superliga games between MLS and Mexican opposition may have been glorified friendlies, but they didn't feel that way. If you can draw anything from them, it's that fitness does matter. At this point, some idiot usually says "That's just an excuse." No, it's called an explanation and if you don't understand the different intentions behind excuses and explanations, nothing written in a blog is going to help you.

So, I do wonder if MLS teams wouldn't have better results if they were fit. For that reason, I think Carlisle's suggestion that MLS give CCC teams a few more bye weeks a little self-defeating. The teams would probably prefer not to play on Sunday and then have to fly to Costa Rica, but the fact is that they need more games ahead of the Cup matches-- not fewer. But yes, MLS might want to try to schedule a bit more with Cup ties in mind...

(5) Dollars go further in Central America. I read somewhere that the top salaries in Costa Rica were around $15,000 a month. There are tons of MLS players who make more than that. But if that's the case, then why aren't our guys better than their guys? There's no doubt that if pure dollar amounts were the only thing that mattered, a lot more of the Costa Rican (and dare I say Mexican) stars would be here. But I'm willing to bet than $225,000 goes a lot further in San Jose (Costa Rica) than it does in San Jose (California). As much as the American dream may be attractive to soccer players, living like a prince in your home country also has to be worth something. Macroeconomic factors do have an effect on how attractive players are (as the recent exodus of American players illustrates-- nothing like a cheap dollar to make Nate Jacqua a hot transfer target....)

The Caig Diet

A quick look at last night's MLS action:
(1) Don't Be Fooled. Yes, DC United won last night against the best Mexico team of the last decade, pushing their record against Mexican teams to 5-0-4 at home. But DC only scored after Pachuca stopped caring. It's a pattern we've seen again and again-- MLS teams might get on the board when the Mexican teams let up a bit, but don't read anything more into those goals. Sure, there are upsets. Chivas definitely didn't want to lose to United in last year's Copa Sudamericana (especially not after having played nearly half the match with a man advantage). But at the end of the day, DC United could have all of the possession they wanted, but they weren't able to make Pachuca pay until it no longer mattered. Last night was an awful performance, perhaps further hindered by the ref, but United's got no one else to blame for their ponderous, disjointed attack.

Instead of the quicker attack that we saw in Mexico, DC United played slowly. Gallardo wasn't able to make as much use of his ability to distribute quickly. And Emilio hadn't put his shooting boots on when DC's string-pullers did get him the ball. And for a team with a real free kick threat in Gallardo, it was disappointing to see Burch waste a decent free kick late in the game. But it was just one of many.

(2) Don't Be Fooled, part two. Despite a 3-0 scoreline and some fairly negative commentating from Brian Dunseth on Fox Soccer Channel, Houston put together a decent first half of soccer against Saprissa. Houston's passing is incisive just outside the box (especially when compared to United's more intricate midfield play) but they did, as Dunseth pointed out, lack the final pass. However, while Dunsenth attributed this to the field, Houston suffered the same problem in its home match last week. I'm not sure quite what it is-- Houston is putting together some great, truly great sequences, but hasn't been putting them away enough.

But what really caught my eye was Tony Caig's poor play. His distribution was distractingly bad. It's tough to fault a goalkeeper for a deflection, but it looked to me like Caig got down fast enough. He simply didn't make the play. Caig's a great example of why "being on the books of Newcastle [or insert big European team here]" doesn't matter. Big teams make mistakes too. Probably more often than their successes, if youth rosters are any indication. But Caig has been terrible, a few reflex saves notwithstanding. I wonder how much longer he has a job with the Dynamo?

Then the Houston we saw in the second half was a shadow of its first half self. The game was over from the 46th minute, despite what the scoreline said.

3. Don't Be Fooled by last week. I didn't see the KC-Revs match, but it confirmed something for me: yes, the Revs are fine despite their shortmanned shellacking by the Fire last week and, in fact, are going to be a good team. Can their young Gambians (who each contributed a goal) keep it up? I think the odds are going up rapidly. And if they do, when the Revs get Twellman and Ralston back, coach Nichol is either going to have a headache or the best team in the league.

I don't really have any opinion on KC but dropping three at home isn't good. I found it interesting that new signing Trujillo didn't even enter the match.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

There's just one problem with the plan.

DC United coach Tom Soehn has the perfect plan to come back from 2-0 down against Pachuca in tomorrow night's Champions Cup tie:

"If you let them have control of possession, [Pachuca star midfielder Giménez] is a big problem," said Soehn. "If you can dictate the terms a little bit more and have control of the ball, I think that in some ways he becomes a liability because his first thought isn't always defending."
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=523916&root=mls&cc=5901

I think Soehn's certainly right. If DC can dictate the terms to Pachuca and have control of the ball, they might just have a chance.

There's just a small problem with that scenario. MLS teams, so far, haven't shown that they know what to do with possession. It's a flaw that stretches from the MLS dregs all the way to the US national team: if you let American teams have possession, they don't know what to do with it and you can counter them mercilessly. By and large, you can even foul American teams pretty hard and be safe because you know they haven't traditionally been all that strong on set pieces.

I've seen evidence that this is changing. Witness the US crushing Poland on set pieces. Or even look at DC's first half in Mexico. And, with all of DC United's new additions, does it even make sense to compare them with MLS clubs of the past?

I'm optimistic that United is capable of a stronger, more dangerous possession game than we've ever seen from American teams. But if they do succeed in dictating the game to Pachuca instead of just racking up garbage possession, make no mistake: it will be a first for the league. Yes, the Mexican league is still stronger than MLS, but isn't it time for an upset? I'll be at the match tomorrow, undoubtedly standing on my chair yelling if it is so.

Monday, April 7, 2008

The Road to MLS Cup XIII, Week Two

1. Lots of goals. The average was four goals a game. In fact, this has been a pretty fast start for goals-- the league is averaging 3.3 goals a game over the first two weeks. Compare that to the period from 2002-2004 when the league averaged around 2.2 goals a game over the fist couple of weeks. Those years are rightly seen as tough years for MLS from a quality of play perspective.

So is this recent jump in goals a result of bringing in high-priced attackers without bringing in comparably excellent defenders? Maybe. MLS newbies have done pretty well. But last year, when some of the best newbies joined, the scoring average was actually down for the first couple of weeks (JP Angel, of course, arrived a few more games into the season). But the big jump in goals scored from 2.2 of the 2002-2004 era to around 3 goals a game actually first occured in 2005-- an expansion year. So I think the number of goals we're seeing is due to two things: (1) great scoring talent and (2) diluted defending. A number of teams look fairly disjointed defensively, including the Fire, DC United, Toronto, San Jose, LA, Houston, Dallas, Real Salt Lake, KC... Wait-- I could probably just name the entire league.

2. Speaking of defending. I said it last year, but the imports are going to show MLS defenders a little bit about free kicks. Free kicks are much more dangerous than they've ever been in this league. Case in point: Toronto's big signing, Laurent Robert, sent a long (40 yards or so) free kick towards the end line-- it looks like it's hit way too far. The United defenders gave up on it. But Jeff Cunningham didn't and suddenly the ball stops arching and just drops to him. He heads the ball across the goal and it hits the cross bar. You could see the players and the fans sort of looking at each other and saying "WTF just happened?"

Friday, April 4, 2008

Bizarro World (Continued)

The Revs crush the Dynamo and, in turn, are crushed by the Fire.

The Galaxy are crushed by the Rapids and, in turn, crush the San Jose Earthquakes.

None of these results are, by themselves, really all that surprising, but put together, they sure make a decent case for the existence of karma. Or at least an ESPN Primetime Curse.

Each game was interesting, although truth be told, the Fire-Revs matchup was a much better match. Even when the Revs lost Jeff Larentowicz to a soft red card in the 7th minute, the Revs continued to threaten Fire goalkeeper Jon Busch. For a team that lost 4-0, New England looked pretty good. Their young additions Nyassi and Mansally created problems for the Fire-- Mansally's skill created a few of New England's 11 corner kicks. The Revs have always had a fairly sticky midfield with Shalrie Joseph, with the ball always landing at his feet, but the young players, in addition to offseason addition Mauricio Castro, seem to give New England an element of surprise that they lacked, even with since-departed better players like Dempsey, Noonan and Dorman. It's hard to take much out of a match with an early ejection, but in bizarro world MLS, I found myself thinking that New England established themselves as an excellent team, even in a disasterous defeat. With Taylor Twellman in the lineup, you just know they would have finished at least a couple of their 11 corners.

The Fire, on the other hand, still look flawed. The Fire defense looked vulnerable and I have to think they'll be punished in the future. The attack looked, I suppose, better. New Polish attacker Thomasz Frankowski scored a pair of goals that I'm not sure Chad Barrett would have finished, but Chad Barrett scored a decent goal himself. Blanco got involved and showed his ability to hold onto the ball and kill the game. But despite the offensive fireworks, I found myself unconvinced by the Chicago attack. They've got an absolutely loaded midfield with Blanco, Mapp and Rolfe, but it didn't quite seem to click. I'm especially curious if Frankowski is going to continue to score goals. On the plus side, Barrett had a couple of nice runs and showed better decision-making.

But then again, I've got a soft spot for guys who suck. I want to believe that Chad Barrett is going to be a star, and, no, not just because he looks vaguely like Wayne Rooney. I remember feeling similarly about Matt Taylor of Chivas USA. Formerly of Chivas USA, at least.

Speaking of guys who aren't very good, how about Alan Gordon? On the same day Chad Barrett scores, Alan Gordon of the LA Galaxy gets a secondary assist in the Gal's win over the San Jose Earthquakes. But the predictions of those who said that Gordon would become a 10 goal scorer on the back of David Beckham's crosses look to be off by about 8 or 9 goals. I really want to see Gordon succeed-- I just have doubts about whether it will happen.

But his Galaxy got a much-needed win against the expansion Earthquakes. It was a poor match. The Earthquakes looked completely disjointed: their was no midfield to speak of, so defenders took to launching balls towards the relatively weak Quake forwards. Ronnie O'Brien, at times one of the best players in the league, was curiously absent. For a team that was supposed to have a solid core defensively, the Quakes seemed to lack a little nastiness. I know they're probably looking for a marquee attacker, but I half wonder if they wouldn't do better going after Pablo Mastroeni, or at least someone like him...

The Galaxy deserve some credit, too: both goals were scored because David Beckham can pass a ball and Landon DOnovan is quick with great vision. In other words, they were scored for reasons that make sense given how the team was constructed. Donovan's speed was, in particular, necessary for both goals-- he was simply doing what he does best. Beckham did fine, although some with high expectations of him may still claim to be disappointed.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Pretty Futbol and Efficiency-- Bizarro World Edition

In a reversal of roles of sorts, an American team danced with the ball, moved effortlessly around the field and put on a dazzling attacking display, yet failed to score a goal.

The Houston Dynamo couldn't find a way to take advantage of their possession last night against Costa Rican champion Saprissa. Houston looked good. At the end of the 0-0 draw, I thought that Houston must have had nearly 20 shots. A look at the box score this morning confirmed it: Houston had 17 shots.

Part of the problem was that few of them were on goal: only 4 of 17. But not every dangerous opportunity that Houston created ended in a shot on goal (especially Ching's late header just over the bar), so the bigger problem is that none of them went in.

There was a lot to like about how the Dynamo played: DeRosario looked dangerous. New striker Franco Caraccio looked decent. In fact, about the only Houston player who looked bad was newcomer Geoff Cameron. It turns out that playing for the University of Rhode Island is not good preparation for playing the Costa Rican champions. He wasted a couple of possessions for Houston late in the game, when they most needed to press. It wasn't really Cameron's fault: he's a young player fresh out of the completely different college game. Houston's lost a little attacking depth this year and injuries to Stuart Holden and Brad Davis made it even more apparent. But Houston needed a late game changer, and it didn't have one.

The real question is how surprised we should be by all of this. Houston can be fairly said to be unlucky that at least one of its close calls didn't go in, but Saprissa, despite conceding possession entirely to Houston, had a couple of equally dangerous chances (Saprissa actually put more shots on frame-- 7 to Houston's 4).

But the simple fact is that MLS teams aren't better than Costa Rican teams yet. MLS teams have struggled mightily, compiling a record of three wins, three ties and six losses against Tico teams. Series victories against Costa Rican clubs in the Champions Cup are uncommon, although Houston beat Costa Rica's Puntarenas last year. Simply put, MLS teams are still underdogs. And when Houston goes to Costa Rica, it's fair to say they'll be heavy underdogs. That's why it was a real shame that Houston, for all their pretty futbol, just couldn't get the goals last night.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Pachuca! Gezunteit!

So DC United went down to Mexico, played at Pachuca and lost 2-0 to Mexico's super club.

The time for talking about moral victories for MLS teams in Mexico is long over. DC may not have even registered a single shot on frame.

With that as a backdrop, how can I have anything positive to say about the game? But actually, there was quite a bit.

1) United didn't panic. I've seen looks of terror in MLS teams' faces in the first 15 minutes, when they realize just how fast, just how controlled and just how... good Mexican club teams really are. United actually held its shape extremely well. They tried to build from the back. United made the Tuzos much less dangerous than their dominating possession deserved. The DC defenders tracked the quick diagonal movements of Pachuca's attackers. In fact, they played better team defense against a Mexican team than I've seen in a while. If there was a major weakness, it was defending runs out to or from the flanks. United protected the box well, but didn't track runners to the flanks and was powerless to stop the Pachuca players from whipping in cross after cross.

2. United didn't lose their cool. There was a time when every MLS club trip to Mexico ended in a least one expulsion. MLS fans typically attributed this to biased refereeing-- and that's probably true to a point. But MLS players didn't do themselves any favors by not realizing that tackles that are "ok" in MLS aren't necessarily ok in international play. You just can't give a CONCACAF ref a reason to call something for the home team.

Now, it seemed like Pachuca got every 50-50 call, including a number of phantom calls in dangerous positions. And the TV replays (obviously off of a Mexican feed) emphasized every challenged by a United player by lingering on the Pachuca players, even as DC was moving the ball upfield in the opposite direction. But we also have to recognize that United's players frequently were just a touch slower. How many times did a DC and Pachuca player tangle for a ball and the Pachuca player, seemingly against longer odds than Ron Paul, came up with the ball? MLS fans just need to admit that Mexican clubs are still significantly better at tight possession.

But that's beside the point here: United players took the calls without too much jawing and generally escaped further sanctions. That's a huge positive.

3. It turns out having experienced international players can help you compete in games internationally. Gallardo is able to distribute the ball in ways that we just don't see much in MLS, redirecting hip level passes to an overlapping runner with an upturned heel. And he did the same trick four or five times, convincing me that, yes, it was on purpose. Fred showed more than good footwork-- he showed an impressive workrate that helped United maintain possession. And Martinez? This is the kind of guy that the team thought they were getting with Facundo Erpen-- a defender with good feet, good instincts and the ability to play the ball forward constructively. In fact, he and Peralta looked very solid and made it more difficult for Pachuca to simply attack through the center with rotating runners (a tactic that MLS teams haven't been able to grasp before). Of course, someone in the middle may have lost their man on the second goal, but I thought it was, overall, a fairly solid performance.

Overall, I think United's got a chance (albeit a small one) to tie this up in the second leg. They were beaten soundly, but not without some constructive play of their own.

I wonder, though, if strangely, United might not be good enough for MLS. Is Gallardo going to see as wide open a field when he plays San Jose in Buckshaw, not to mention the traditional MLS defensive powerhouses?

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

April's Fool

You can't expect people not to make a joke of it when an interview with Alexi Lalas appeared on espn.com on April Fool's Day.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=521758&root=mls&cc=5901

The fact is that Lalas appears to have whatever the opposite of the Midas Touch is when it comes to MLS clubs. One club he GM'd was relocated, another went from barely respectable to mediocre and yet another went from simply boring to completely awful. Either that's a run of bad luck to equal Job or Lalas isn't very good at creating the stability needed for competitive teams.

And frankly, that makes me a little sad. Despite his awful record as a GM, Lalas does "get" a lot of things about the sport. I read the interview hoping to find more ridiculous statements, but instead found a lot of things I agree with.

Lalas wants to be a leader and understands that being a leader sometimes means failing: "Yes. While others prefer to wait and see how things play out, we prefer to lead the charge. Of course when you're out front you expose yourself, but that's the difference between leaders and followers."

Or how about the following: "There's nothing wrong with the circus. To be honest, the alternative is a boring situation where nobody cares one way or the other. We will continue to be provocative and progressive. Winning is always the fundamental part of the equation, but I make no apologies for the circus and I'm proud to be the ringmaster."

Indeed, I'd rather have a league that's a circus as opposed to one that no one cares about.

But if I agree completely with what Alexi's saying, I can't say I think he's doing a good job. The difference between leaders and followers may be the willingness to expose yourself, but the difference between wise men and fools is knowing your strengths.