The US men's team was absolutely demolished in the second half of a cup final this year, for the second time.
One soft penalty and the US team went to pieces. After Jay Heaps tugged at Giovanni Dos Santos' shirt, Gio went tumbling down into Heaps. The call was questionable, but the US team had plenty of chances in the first half to score and put the Mexicans on their heels.
But even worse was what happened after the penalty: the US looked like it was committing every man forward, leaving the inexperienced backline at the mercy of Dos Santos and Carlos Vela. The US lost discipline, shape, the match, and, eventually, dignity by a 5-0 scoreline. That's the kind of score we haven't seen in about 25 years.
Some fans will say that this doesn't mean anything. After all Coach Bob Bradley brought an inexperienced roster and decided to stick with them to see how they handled the pressure. And that's fair enough: there are lessons to be learned in defeat. And Bradley should be commended for sticking with his young team, when he could have brought in more experienced reinforcements.
But here's what should never happen: if you are a weaker, less talented, less experienced team, you must never be beaten on heart or organization. And this young US team was beaten on both accounts. Sure, they showed me more than enough in the first half of the game: this young team had the potential to beat this Mexico. If they played with the same discipline and marksmanship of US team's past, they would have put away one of their decent chances in the first half and known how to manage the result. It's fair to say that the US sometimes got lucky against Mexico during its near decade-long home unbeaten streak, but you'd also have to admit that the hard work those US team did made its own share of "luck". I saw none of that yesterday at Giant's Stadium.
Soccer's a funny game (as most sports are) with near overnight comebacks. But it will take more than a good US performance in Azteca on August 12 to convince me that Bob Bradley knows how to organize this team. For once, the US team has talent. How ironic, then, that its heart has seemed to fade away almost in tandem with the growth of the American's skill.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
You're almost always wrong if...
You're almost always wrong if you write "If X doesn't happen, there's no way the US team can be successful at the next World Cup." (unless, of course, X is "score more goals than their opponents...)
This week's entry is Jamie Trecker's assertion that "It's been clear for some time that Adu needs to be a part of the 2010 effort for the USA to have a real chance."
Jamie's latest
So we're all clear on one thing: Freddy Adu can do things with the ball that no other US player can do. But the US had a good run in 2002 without anyone remotely resembling Adu. Not to mention the US's recent run in the Confederations Cup, in which Freddy didn't play a second...
So... no... Adu doesn't need to be part of the 2010 effort for the US to have a chance.
But here's hoping that Adu gets more playing time in the Gold Cup and shows that he can play against tighter defenses. Just because the American path to success need not be trod solely behind Adu's little footprints doesn't mean the team can't use him.
This week's entry is Jamie Trecker's assertion that "It's been clear for some time that Adu needs to be a part of the 2010 effort for the USA to have a real chance."
Jamie's latest
So we're all clear on one thing: Freddy Adu can do things with the ball that no other US player can do. But the US had a good run in 2002 without anyone remotely resembling Adu. Not to mention the US's recent run in the Confederations Cup, in which Freddy didn't play a second...
So... no... Adu doesn't need to be part of the 2010 effort for the US to have a chance.
But here's hoping that Adu gets more playing time in the Gold Cup and shows that he can play against tighter defenses. Just because the American path to success need not be trod solely behind Adu's little footprints doesn't mean the team can't use him.
Monday, July 6, 2009
It's an OUTRAGE that Torres/Adu/Whoever Didn't Play Because They Were Out of Form!
The anger starts from somewhere deep within.
Some fans of the US men's soccer team are outraged when Coach Bob Bradley keeps talents like Freddy Adu on the bench, obstensibly because Freddy's "out of form," yet still has the audacity to play Sacha Kljestan, who is also "out of form." These fans ask: "Why can Bradley play Altidore, who also hasn't played for his club team, and then sit Adu BECAUSE he's not playing for his club team? It just doesn't make sense!"
Of course it does.
Part of the problem is that we don't always mean the same thing when we say a player is "out of form." It could be the player is injured. It could be the player simply hasn't seem much action. Or maybe the player is just not performing. Sometimes, it's all of the above (consider poor DaMarcus Beasley).
But a bigger part of the problem is that different players will react... wait for it... differently to being out of form.
Remember John O'Brien? One of the US's most talented midfielders, he was also always one wrong foot away from an ambulance. As a result of his many injuries, he didn't always see much time with his club team. But if he was healthy, you had to play him. He was that good: he got healthy just in time for the 2002 World Cup and put in a great tournament.
Similarly, Jozy Altidore played a decent Confederations Cup, despite not playing a minute for his second division club in Spain. Granted, he looked gassed at times later in matches. He likely would have been even better if he was getting serious playing time in Spain. But you could count on him to play his way into form.
Coach Bradley decided that guys like Adu couldn't play their way into shape but bet that Klejstan could. He clearly made a mistake with Beasley, who had taken advantage of past experiences with the national team to regain his form. But overall, I'm inclined to give some deference to the coach: he sees what's going on in practice. If he decides that Jose Francisco Torres is too tired to play, then he's making the decision based on information that you and I don't have.
So what's the bottom line? It doens't make sense to expect Bradley to be "consistent" in his decisions about playing guys who are out of form. Consistency for consistency's sake is almost worthless: all we really care about is who performs. We can criticize Bradley for not recognizing the depth of Beasley's problems and wonder what else he got wrong, but criticizing him for his inconsistency doesn't make any sense.
Some fans of the US men's soccer team are outraged when Coach Bob Bradley keeps talents like Freddy Adu on the bench, obstensibly because Freddy's "out of form," yet still has the audacity to play Sacha Kljestan, who is also "out of form." These fans ask: "Why can Bradley play Altidore, who also hasn't played for his club team, and then sit Adu BECAUSE he's not playing for his club team? It just doesn't make sense!"
Of course it does.
Part of the problem is that we don't always mean the same thing when we say a player is "out of form." It could be the player is injured. It could be the player simply hasn't seem much action. Or maybe the player is just not performing. Sometimes, it's all of the above (consider poor DaMarcus Beasley).
But a bigger part of the problem is that different players will react... wait for it... differently to being out of form.
Remember John O'Brien? One of the US's most talented midfielders, he was also always one wrong foot away from an ambulance. As a result of his many injuries, he didn't always see much time with his club team. But if he was healthy, you had to play him. He was that good: he got healthy just in time for the 2002 World Cup and put in a great tournament.
Similarly, Jozy Altidore played a decent Confederations Cup, despite not playing a minute for his second division club in Spain. Granted, he looked gassed at times later in matches. He likely would have been even better if he was getting serious playing time in Spain. But you could count on him to play his way into form.
Coach Bradley decided that guys like Adu couldn't play their way into shape but bet that Klejstan could. He clearly made a mistake with Beasley, who had taken advantage of past experiences with the national team to regain his form. But overall, I'm inclined to give some deference to the coach: he sees what's going on in practice. If he decides that Jose Francisco Torres is too tired to play, then he's making the decision based on information that you and I don't have.
So what's the bottom line? It doens't make sense to expect Bradley to be "consistent" in his decisions about playing guys who are out of form. Consistency for consistency's sake is almost worthless: all we really care about is who performs. We can criticize Bradley for not recognizing the depth of Beasley's problems and wonder what else he got wrong, but criticizing him for his inconsistency doesn't make any sense.
Friday, June 19, 2009
US-Brazil-- The Sad, Sad Aftermath
Danny Karbassiyoon.
That's who I thought about watching Brazil completely dismantle the US men's soccer team, 3-0.
After the 2002 World Cup, where the young Americans shone brightly, US soccer fans were optimistic. Young MLS players, Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley, had acquitted themselves well under the spotlights in Korea. The US had been, for many years, tough to beat. But now the team had young talent! And Donovan and Beasley were just the start of it: Bobby Convey would soon join them! Kyle Martino was amazing. Eddie Johnson looked like he could become the superstar forward that the US sorely needed. MLS was producing real talent.
And we had an amazing overseas contingent of young Americans at top flight European teams: Danny Karbassiyoon, Zak Whitbread, Frank Simek, Kenny Cooper, Jonathan Spector, Cory Gibbs... The list was long.
We understood that not all of these players would pan out-- but they were playing with first tier European teams! At least a few of them would be great players by 2006. And, if not 2006, then just imagine 2010!
But here we are in 2009, looking dismally back at our demolition by Brazil. The embarassment of riches has given way to simple embarassment. The post-2002 generation of young Americans has not produced. Danny Karbassiyoon is retired. The other young Americans have, so far, had disappointing careers. Sure, some players came out of nowhere: Clint Dempsey has a productive career in the English Premiership. Jozy Altidore might become the superstar forward that the US sorely needs. There are still many names that give US fans hope.
But there is a fundamental fact we have to face: the US has not progressed. Much of our talent has not panned out, whether it's in Europe or MLS. The national team now looks unprepared for big games, soemthing for which coach Bob Bradley surely must take responsibility. But for whatever the coach's faults may be, I go back to talent and professionalism: would you rather have Claudio Reyna and Brian McBride or Michael Bradley, Benny Feilhaber and Jozy Altidore? I have high hopes for the young Americans, but I know what my answer would have to be today.
That's who I thought about watching Brazil completely dismantle the US men's soccer team, 3-0.
After the 2002 World Cup, where the young Americans shone brightly, US soccer fans were optimistic. Young MLS players, Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley, had acquitted themselves well under the spotlights in Korea. The US had been, for many years, tough to beat. But now the team had young talent! And Donovan and Beasley were just the start of it: Bobby Convey would soon join them! Kyle Martino was amazing. Eddie Johnson looked like he could become the superstar forward that the US sorely needed. MLS was producing real talent.
And we had an amazing overseas contingent of young Americans at top flight European teams: Danny Karbassiyoon, Zak Whitbread, Frank Simek, Kenny Cooper, Jonathan Spector, Cory Gibbs... The list was long.
We understood that not all of these players would pan out-- but they were playing with first tier European teams! At least a few of them would be great players by 2006. And, if not 2006, then just imagine 2010!
But here we are in 2009, looking dismally back at our demolition by Brazil. The embarassment of riches has given way to simple embarassment. The post-2002 generation of young Americans has not produced. Danny Karbassiyoon is retired. The other young Americans have, so far, had disappointing careers. Sure, some players came out of nowhere: Clint Dempsey has a productive career in the English Premiership. Jozy Altidore might become the superstar forward that the US sorely needs. There are still many names that give US fans hope.
But there is a fundamental fact we have to face: the US has not progressed. Much of our talent has not panned out, whether it's in Europe or MLS. The national team now looks unprepared for big games, soemthing for which coach Bob Bradley surely must take responsibility. But for whatever the coach's faults may be, I go back to talent and professionalism: would you rather have Claudio Reyna and Brian McBride or Michael Bradley, Benny Feilhaber and Jozy Altidore? I have high hopes for the young Americans, but I know what my answer would have to be today.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
US-Brazil Preview, or "You're An Idiot If You Think the US Has Any Chance of a Result"
No Chance? In the wake of the United States' loss against Italy in the Confederations Cup, I was struck by how many fans from outside the US thought it was ludicrous to suggest that US might get a result from Italy. They explained that the US has no futbol tradition and vastly inferior talent. They noted that the US coach was tactically naive and had no experience outside of the United States.
All true. But the conclusion that the US never had a "chance" is just stupid. Unforgivably stupid, really. The US got a result against Italy just three years ago, in the biggest stage possible: the World Cup. Would a rational human being expect a US win or even a tie? Of course not. But you'd have to be truly slow to say that a US result is "impossible" when they earned a hard-fought point so recently. Unfortunately, a lot of fans don't seem to understand the difference between "unlikely" and "impossible".
So what's this mean for the up-coming US-Brazil match tomorrow? I expect a competitive game. I think the US has typically done well against possession teams, so I don't think a positive result is out of the question. Is there also a decent chance the scoreline could get ugly? Certainly. The recent debacle in Costa Rica shows that this US team may not be quite as tight defensively as in year's past. Just don't discount either possibility entirely.
Was that a red? The international take. Was Ricardo Clark's tackle on Gattuso in the Italy match worthy of a red card? Some, like the master of false controversy Jamie Trecker, seem to think the tackle was clearly a red. The Italian press was rather more equivocal, with Gazzetta dello Sport noting that the tackle was more "theatrical than aggressive". Rossi, for his part, thought it was a yellow. The BBC thought it was harsh. But the Spanish press? Almost universal in deeming Rico's expulsion justified.
What do I take away from this? I think it's anecdotal evidence that countries see fouls differently-- it would be no surprise if the Italians and English saw the same tackles as innocuous while the Spanish viewed them as harsh.
And Trecker? His writing seems to lack internal consistency-- his opinions seem to shift as needed so that he can write the most inflammatory piece possible. But kudos to him: his boneheaded style keeps me reading his columns.
All true. But the conclusion that the US never had a "chance" is just stupid. Unforgivably stupid, really. The US got a result against Italy just three years ago, in the biggest stage possible: the World Cup. Would a rational human being expect a US win or even a tie? Of course not. But you'd have to be truly slow to say that a US result is "impossible" when they earned a hard-fought point so recently. Unfortunately, a lot of fans don't seem to understand the difference between "unlikely" and "impossible".
So what's this mean for the up-coming US-Brazil match tomorrow? I expect a competitive game. I think the US has typically done well against possession teams, so I don't think a positive result is out of the question. Is there also a decent chance the scoreline could get ugly? Certainly. The recent debacle in Costa Rica shows that this US team may not be quite as tight defensively as in year's past. Just don't discount either possibility entirely.
Was that a red? The international take. Was Ricardo Clark's tackle on Gattuso in the Italy match worthy of a red card? Some, like the master of false controversy Jamie Trecker, seem to think the tackle was clearly a red. The Italian press was rather more equivocal, with Gazzetta dello Sport noting that the tackle was more "theatrical than aggressive". Rossi, for his part, thought it was a yellow. The BBC thought it was harsh. But the Spanish press? Almost universal in deeming Rico's expulsion justified.
What do I take away from this? I think it's anecdotal evidence that countries see fouls differently-- it would be no surprise if the Italians and English saw the same tackles as innocuous while the Spanish viewed them as harsh.
And Trecker? His writing seems to lack internal consistency-- his opinions seem to shift as needed so that he can write the most inflammatory piece possible. But kudos to him: his boneheaded style keeps me reading his columns.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
That never stopped anyone before...
Keith Costigan had an interesting thought in his power rankings this week.
He, like many (including me), isn't entirely convinced that Columbus is for real. But his argument is the following: "The Crew still lack a striker who can score 15 to 20 goals and that may ultimately be their downfall in the quest for MLS Cup."
Hmmm. I thought back about some of the most dominant performances by strikers in MLS (I'm thinking Stern John, Mamadou Diallo, Luciano Emilio and JPA last year). How many MLS Cups did those guys win? Do you really need a 15 goal scorer to win MLS Cup?
It turns out you'd be better off not having a 15 goal scorer on the team: 8 of 12 MLS Cup winners didn't. And of the 24 MLS Cup finalists, 14 teams didn't have a 15 goal scorer.
So, no, Keith, having a 15-20 goal scorer isn't a pre-requisite for winning MLS Cup. And given that Columbus is third in the league with 14 goals scored, I'm not sure the forward tandem of Robbie Rogers and Alejandro Moreno is a problem. In fact, given that Alejandro Moreno was a starter on an MLS Cup winning team, despite never scoring more than 8 goals in his career, I'd say he definitely isn't the problem.
He, like many (including me), isn't entirely convinced that Columbus is for real. But his argument is the following: "The Crew still lack a striker who can score 15 to 20 goals and that may ultimately be their downfall in the quest for MLS Cup."
Hmmm. I thought back about some of the most dominant performances by strikers in MLS (I'm thinking Stern John, Mamadou Diallo, Luciano Emilio and JPA last year). How many MLS Cups did those guys win? Do you really need a 15 goal scorer to win MLS Cup?
It turns out you'd be better off not having a 15 goal scorer on the team: 8 of 12 MLS Cup winners didn't. And of the 24 MLS Cup finalists, 14 teams didn't have a 15 goal scorer.
So, no, Keith, having a 15-20 goal scorer isn't a pre-requisite for winning MLS Cup. And given that Columbus is third in the league with 14 goals scored, I'm not sure the forward tandem of Robbie Rogers and Alejandro Moreno is a problem. In fact, given that Alejandro Moreno was a starter on an MLS Cup winning team, despite never scoring more than 8 goals in his career, I'd say he definitely isn't the problem.
Monday, May 19, 2008
MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 8
I'd call it a quiet week, except for LA crushing Dallas. Who called that one?
1. Columbus Crew (Last week: #2, tied #6 Toronto away)
So it was ugly. I'm still not sold on the Crew, and Toronto put them under serious pressure, but right now, picking up points at BMO is an accomplishment.
2. New England (Last week: #3, beat #13 San Jose at home)
Beating up on the Earthquakes at home isn't much of an accomplishment, but the Revs got it done. Sadly, though, with Twellman's latest injury, it's back to the drawing board for the Revs' front line. Since this is a Steve Nichol team, you never know who the hero will be. This time it was Kheli Dube, scoring the go-ahead goal. I hesitate to rank them too highly without Twellman, but all of the teams are vulnerable these days.
3. Houston (Last week: #5, beat #8 Colorado at home)
For the second week in a row, Houston benefitted from a somewhat flukey goal-- who knows how many times Dwayne DeRosario's goal deflected before reaching the net (incidentally, it's hard to see how Rico Clark can really be credited with an assist on that pinball strike). Still, I have a feeling Houston was due a little more luck after a tough-luck start to the season.
4. Chicago Fire (Last week: #1, lost to #4 Houston at home)
A week after everyone was talking about this team fought for each other, we saw a performance without much fight. And how must Thomasz Frankowski feel about being behind Chad Barrett in the starting spot pecking order?
5. Toronto (Last week: #6, tied #2 Crew at home)
John Carver got apparently his first exposure to Latin American soccer the other day as the Crew came to town looking for a point. Guillermo Barros Schelotto spent an awful lot of time on the ground. Carver wasn't too pleased by the diving: "If that was back in England, everybody would be up in arms screaming and shouting it's bad for the image of the game. I'll have to be honest, I certainly agree with it."
And it's true: in England, they don't have much tolerance for diving. But it's always seemed to me that "back in England", they tolerate fouls that aren't acceptable in the international game. Carver needs to shut up and learn a little bit about how the game is played here, as opposed to how he thinks it ought to be played. Is that fair or right? No. I'm sympathetic to how the guy feels, but until he figures it out, his team will continue to drop points at home because its opponents will bunker. This is the by-product of now being a tough team to play. Toronto needs to kick it up a notch if they really want to join the elite.
6. New York Red Bulls (Last week: #7, tied #10 KC at home)
New York needs to do better. They put Kansas City under serious pressure but were still waiting for an equalizer when Danleigh Borman struck in the 81st minute. They shouldn't be dropping points to Kansas City, which is still struggling to fit together as a team.
And Danleigh Borman's goal celebration-- A mixture of an athletic cartwheel with a grade school tumbling class move? Everyone assumed that it was a mistake last week, but he went and did it again this week, claiming that he was just trying to emulate his father. I'm not sure-- I suspect he felt so stupid about it last week that he's just making up stuff this week. See for yourself from SBI.
7. Colorado (Last week: #8, beat #14 RSL at home)
Omar Cummings does it again. The whole team looks good. But it was only RSL.
8. Dallas (Last week: #5, lost to #12 LA Galaxy at home)
What a disaster: a 5-1 defeat to the Galaxy at home. The Gals lined up in a 4-5-1 and FCD's D didn't know what to do about it. Looking at the scoresheet, you'd say that Donovan and Beckham didn't have as much influence on this game, but I don't think that's true. The freedom and space they had in midfield left FCD completely disoriented, opening up the field for the Galaxy's lesser stars to have career days.
But what's most disappointing about the game? Dallas's offense. Despite a four goal deficit at half-time, the Hoops created enough chances to make it a competitive game. They just didn't show up.
9. Kansas City (Last week: #10, tied #7 NYRB away)
So Jimmy Conrad is now their leading scorer? Yes, this team needs work.
10. Los Angeles Galaxy (Last week: #10, beat #5 Dallas away)
What a surprising match. Not because the Gals scored 5 goals, but because their defense only gave up one goal. It wasn't for lack of trying to be predictably sieve-like.
And Edson Buddle scored a hattrick. As the MLSnet write-up reminded us, he once scored four goals for Columbus. Buddle does this sort of thing periodically. The only problem is that he likely won't score again until 2010, which made his celebration of his hattrick a little bittersweet.
11. Chivas USA (Last week: #11, beat #9 DCU at home)
Here was Chivas USA's backline: Marsch, Burling and Curtin. Yikes. And they still won... I'm not sure the Goats' injury situation is going to improve much over the coming weeks, though. Can they keep pulling this off? It's still a paper thin squad and, with the exception of Kljestan, none of their offensive studs have really got their seasons started.
12. DC United (Last week: #9, lost to #11 Chivas away)
Gallardo scores a wonder goal-- United's first away goal since *October 2007*. DCU loses due to a monumental late collapse. They don't have the horses.
13. San Jose (Last week: #13, lost to #3 Revs away)
The E-quakes have had a rough schedule. Yes, they aren't generating anything against the league's top teams. And it doesn't get any better with Houston on deck. I'm circling my calendar for the next RSL-SJ game.
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14, lost to #8 Colorado away)
Yes, they showed flashes of being capable of doing something constructive against Colorado. But they need to start getting results...
Next week
TOR-DC-- Toronto win
SJ-HOU-- Houston win (but what an event, right? The first vist of the Dynamo back to the community that lost them...)
CBUS-REV-- Columbus win (that's what the rankings say, but I have a hunch that the Revs' big game experience might help them get a result)
DCU-TOR-- tie
FCD-RSL-- FCD win
COL-CUSA-- Colorado win
LAG-KC-- Galaxy win
NYRB-CHI-- NYRB win
1. Columbus Crew (Last week: #2, tied #6 Toronto away)
So it was ugly. I'm still not sold on the Crew, and Toronto put them under serious pressure, but right now, picking up points at BMO is an accomplishment.
2. New England (Last week: #3, beat #13 San Jose at home)
Beating up on the Earthquakes at home isn't much of an accomplishment, but the Revs got it done. Sadly, though, with Twellman's latest injury, it's back to the drawing board for the Revs' front line. Since this is a Steve Nichol team, you never know who the hero will be. This time it was Kheli Dube, scoring the go-ahead goal. I hesitate to rank them too highly without Twellman, but all of the teams are vulnerable these days.
3. Houston (Last week: #5, beat #8 Colorado at home)
For the second week in a row, Houston benefitted from a somewhat flukey goal-- who knows how many times Dwayne DeRosario's goal deflected before reaching the net (incidentally, it's hard to see how Rico Clark can really be credited with an assist on that pinball strike). Still, I have a feeling Houston was due a little more luck after a tough-luck start to the season.
4. Chicago Fire (Last week: #1, lost to #4 Houston at home)
A week after everyone was talking about this team fought for each other, we saw a performance without much fight. And how must Thomasz Frankowski feel about being behind Chad Barrett in the starting spot pecking order?
5. Toronto (Last week: #6, tied #2 Crew at home)
John Carver got apparently his first exposure to Latin American soccer the other day as the Crew came to town looking for a point. Guillermo Barros Schelotto spent an awful lot of time on the ground. Carver wasn't too pleased by the diving: "If that was back in England, everybody would be up in arms screaming and shouting it's bad for the image of the game. I'll have to be honest, I certainly agree with it."
And it's true: in England, they don't have much tolerance for diving. But it's always seemed to me that "back in England", they tolerate fouls that aren't acceptable in the international game. Carver needs to shut up and learn a little bit about how the game is played here, as opposed to how he thinks it ought to be played. Is that fair or right? No. I'm sympathetic to how the guy feels, but until he figures it out, his team will continue to drop points at home because its opponents will bunker. This is the by-product of now being a tough team to play. Toronto needs to kick it up a notch if they really want to join the elite.
6. New York Red Bulls (Last week: #7, tied #10 KC at home)
New York needs to do better. They put Kansas City under serious pressure but were still waiting for an equalizer when Danleigh Borman struck in the 81st minute. They shouldn't be dropping points to Kansas City, which is still struggling to fit together as a team.
And Danleigh Borman's goal celebration-- A mixture of an athletic cartwheel with a grade school tumbling class move? Everyone assumed that it was a mistake last week, but he went and did it again this week, claiming that he was just trying to emulate his father. I'm not sure-- I suspect he felt so stupid about it last week that he's just making up stuff this week. See for yourself from SBI.
7. Colorado (Last week: #8, beat #14 RSL at home)
Omar Cummings does it again. The whole team looks good. But it was only RSL.
8. Dallas (Last week: #5, lost to #12 LA Galaxy at home)
What a disaster: a 5-1 defeat to the Galaxy at home. The Gals lined up in a 4-5-1 and FCD's D didn't know what to do about it. Looking at the scoresheet, you'd say that Donovan and Beckham didn't have as much influence on this game, but I don't think that's true. The freedom and space they had in midfield left FCD completely disoriented, opening up the field for the Galaxy's lesser stars to have career days.
But what's most disappointing about the game? Dallas's offense. Despite a four goal deficit at half-time, the Hoops created enough chances to make it a competitive game. They just didn't show up.
9. Kansas City (Last week: #10, tied #7 NYRB away)
So Jimmy Conrad is now their leading scorer? Yes, this team needs work.
10. Los Angeles Galaxy (Last week: #10, beat #5 Dallas away)
What a surprising match. Not because the Gals scored 5 goals, but because their defense only gave up one goal. It wasn't for lack of trying to be predictably sieve-like.
And Edson Buddle scored a hattrick. As the MLSnet write-up reminded us, he once scored four goals for Columbus. Buddle does this sort of thing periodically. The only problem is that he likely won't score again until 2010, which made his celebration of his hattrick a little bittersweet.
11. Chivas USA (Last week: #11, beat #9 DCU at home)
Here was Chivas USA's backline: Marsch, Burling and Curtin. Yikes. And they still won... I'm not sure the Goats' injury situation is going to improve much over the coming weeks, though. Can they keep pulling this off? It's still a paper thin squad and, with the exception of Kljestan, none of their offensive studs have really got their seasons started.
12. DC United (Last week: #9, lost to #11 Chivas away)
Gallardo scores a wonder goal-- United's first away goal since *October 2007*. DCU loses due to a monumental late collapse. They don't have the horses.
13. San Jose (Last week: #13, lost to #3 Revs away)
The E-quakes have had a rough schedule. Yes, they aren't generating anything against the league's top teams. And it doesn't get any better with Houston on deck. I'm circling my calendar for the next RSL-SJ game.
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14, lost to #8 Colorado away)
Yes, they showed flashes of being capable of doing something constructive against Colorado. But they need to start getting results...
Next week
TOR-DC-- Toronto win
SJ-HOU-- Houston win (but what an event, right? The first vist of the Dynamo back to the community that lost them...)
CBUS-REV-- Columbus win (that's what the rankings say, but I have a hunch that the Revs' big game experience might help them get a result)
DCU-TOR-- tie
FCD-RSL-- FCD win
COL-CUSA-- Colorado win
LAG-KC-- Galaxy win
NYRB-CHI-- NYRB win
Friday, May 16, 2008
So maybe Omar Cummings IS that guy after all...
I called out the Rapids for thinking that someone was just going to step up and become Juan Pablo Angel. You don't get JPAs off of the practice squad.
And I'll stand by that reasoning. But I'm also a professed admirer of Omar Cummings. With the passing and running that the Rapids are capable of, Cummings could really benefit, as he did last night scoring against Real Salt Lake.
Christian Gomez had a good game. Cummings had a good game. Colin Clark had a good game. Even Herculez Gomez had a good game. The Rapids are first place in the West (yes, I know, it's like being the toughest kid in first grade, but first is first).
And Real? Well, they faltered badly in the second half. Espindola looks capable. We know Beckerman and Kovalenko will work. Borchers looked overall ok. Andy Williams even ran a few times. So, really, another case of RSL looking much improved but still getting the same results. Tony Beltran, however, must have better nights ahead. I expected him to get skinned by Colin Clark. But when Herculez was putting moves on him, sending Beltran to the turf, I knew it was going to be a tough night for him. RSL still seems to have gaps in the team appropriate for an expansion team, not a fourth year club.
And I'll stand by that reasoning. But I'm also a professed admirer of Omar Cummings. With the passing and running that the Rapids are capable of, Cummings could really benefit, as he did last night scoring against Real Salt Lake.
Christian Gomez had a good game. Cummings had a good game. Colin Clark had a good game. Even Herculez Gomez had a good game. The Rapids are first place in the West (yes, I know, it's like being the toughest kid in first grade, but first is first).
And Real? Well, they faltered badly in the second half. Espindola looks capable. We know Beckerman and Kovalenko will work. Borchers looked overall ok. Andy Williams even ran a few times. So, really, another case of RSL looking much improved but still getting the same results. Tony Beltran, however, must have better nights ahead. I expected him to get skinned by Colin Clark. But when Herculez was putting moves on him, sending Beltran to the turf, I knew it was going to be a tough night for him. RSL still seems to have gaps in the team appropriate for an expansion team, not a fourth year club.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
And That Says Everything About What's Wrong with the Rapids
The Rapids have scored a boatload of goals, but only one of their players has scored more than one. As a result, you can't really say that the Rapids have a go-to guy.
Jeff Carlisle quoted Colorado Rapids coach Fernando Clavijo on this problem: "We haven't had that one player who is stepping up and being that Juan Pablo Angel. That's a luxury we don't have, and because of that, we have to do a lot more work as a group."
Does Clavijo and Rapids owner Kroenke really think a player from the Rapids reserve or bench is going to "step up" and be JPA? That's like expecting a bench player for the worst team in a Division Three basketball program to become Lebron James just by shooting a few extra free throws after practice.
The truth is, the Rapids haven't had a go-to guy since 2005 with Jeff Cunningham and his 12 goals. The last two seasons, the leading scorer on the Rapids has had 6 and 7 goals respectively (Kirovski last year, Hernandez and Beckerman the year before). I think you really have to go back to John Spencer to really find a true go-to guy, though. Relying on Jovan Kirovski to suddenly realize his potential at 32 isn't going to cut it.
Jeff Carlisle quoted Colorado Rapids coach Fernando Clavijo on this problem: "We haven't had that one player who is stepping up and being that Juan Pablo Angel. That's a luxury we don't have, and because of that, we have to do a lot more work as a group."
Does Clavijo and Rapids owner Kroenke really think a player from the Rapids reserve or bench is going to "step up" and be JPA? That's like expecting a bench player for the worst team in a Division Three basketball program to become Lebron James just by shooting a few extra free throws after practice.
The truth is, the Rapids haven't had a go-to guy since 2005 with Jeff Cunningham and his 12 goals. The last two seasons, the leading scorer on the Rapids has had 6 and 7 goals respectively (Kirovski last year, Hernandez and Beckerman the year before). I think you really have to go back to John Spencer to really find a true go-to guy, though. Relying on Jovan Kirovski to suddenly realize his potential at 32 isn't going to cut it.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 7
The field in MLS is starting to take shape a little. Although my predictions aren't getting any better, the higher ranked team won in five of six games. The early season trend of home teams dominating faded somewhat: away teams went 4-2.
1. Chicago Fire (Last week: #1, beat #7 United away)
The Fire might not always look good, but they seem to win. The first 30 minutes against DC, they looked vulnerable. But they started to control match and never looked back.
2. Columbus Crew (Last week: #2, beat #13 San Jose away)
Robbie Rogers is now second in the league with five goals. Alejandro Moreno is right behind him with four. They're looking like a team with multiple weapons. The last time you could say that, McBride and Brian West were still wearing yellow.
The only knock on the Crew? They've had a surprisingly easy schedule, given how some former powers have crumbled. Not their fault and they're racking up points now.
3. New England Revolution (Last week: #4, beat #9 Chivas away)
Twellman scores, Ralston assists, Revs win. The Revs have a great starting 11 and they have good depth (albeit not enough to carry them through the injuries unscathed). The Revs are good.
4. Houston (Last week: #5, beat #8 Colorado at home)
It might have been a flukey performance, but you got the feeling that the Dynamo were building up some serious soccer karma during their long winless streak to start the season. Unlike fellow strugglers United, the Dynamo kept their heads up and benefitted from Bouna Condoul's goalkeeping clinic (as in a clinic on how not to clear a ball). Houston is, by far, the team with the least points among the MLS elite, but I'm sticking with them at #4.
5. Dallas (Last week: #3, lost to #14 Real Salt Lake away)
Kenny Cooper is unstoppable, but you can't say the same for Dallas. They might have done just enough to tie it up in Salt Lake, but the ball didn't go in. I've got to think that Juan Toja will get his season going soon-- he shows enough quality from game to game to suggest good things to come, even if it's not coming right now.
6. Toronto (Last week: #6, did not play)
Should Toronto be ranked higher? Maybe, but let's see how they take the Guevara show on the road and have to deal with a few more calls going against them.
7. New York Red Bulls (Last week: #10, beat #12 Galaxy away)
Juan Pablo Angel still isn't quite fit, but managed to score against the Galaxy (who wisely decided to sit accident-prone "defender" Abel Xavier). The Red Bulls are geting dynamic players back from injury (Richards and Freeman) at the same time they've lost players who impose structure on the game-- Reyna and Stammler. What will they look like when everyone's healthy? Hard to say: the teams currently in the middle of the pack-- #7-#11-- are tough teams to read.
8. Colorado (Last week: #8, lost to Houston away)
A loss to Houston away, on a disputed penalty kick, is not the worst thing that could happen, so the Rapids stay at #8. Gomez to Cummings is a great combo that I hope will produce a few more goals this season.
9. DC United (Last week: #7, lost to #1 Chicago at home)
When United turned it on late in the game against Chicago, they looked like a juggernaut. They only problem was that they were already down 2-0. Another poor performance from United that led GM and noted political essayist Thomas Paine to call out players for taking plays off. But I'll hesitate to punish them more for Thursday's performance: they may not play with heart, but I'd expect them to still beat lower ranked teams on pure talent. Definitely the year's most disappointing team so far.
10. Kansas City (Last week: #11, Did Not Play)
They move up based on Chivas' loss against the Revs.
11. Chivas USA (Last week: #9, lost to #4 Revolution at home)
Sure, they had a couple of key losses: Claudio Suarez to suspension and Bornstein to a long injury. But this team has NO depth. Look at their bench for this game:
1 - Dan Kennedy (GK)
17 - Justin Braun 59
22 - Keith Savage
24 - Atiba Harris 71
31 - Daniel Paladini 68
32 - Anthony Hamilton
34 - Gerson Mayen
With the exception of Atiba Harris, who is established (even if he's a red card waiting to happen every match), these are untested players. And Chivas was starting Eric Ebert and Bobby Burling. They've got some nice pieces, but it doesn't add up to a team right now.
12. Los Angeles Galaxy (Last week: #12, lost to #10 NY at home)
The Gals shouldn't be dropping home points to New York, but it's just a fact of life with this defense. If Becks and Donovan are covered and not contributing, the Gals have precious little other resources. I'm sure that the Big Two will continue to win games and the Gals may move up a little in the rankings, but what's really the best case scenario?
13. San Jose (Last week: #13, lost to #2 Columbus at home)
The Quakes scored. The right guys-- O'Brien, Corrales and Grabavoy-- are contributing. But they didn't get the win at home against a quality opponent, whereas...
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14, beat #3 Dallas at home)
Real Salt Lake did. They played ugly and got some points. Players are talking about it being a turning point. Javier Morales added a goal to his four assists. They're unbeaten at home. And yes, they're a point out of first in the to-date dreadful Western Conference.
But really, who would you expect RSL to beat consistently? They'll have a chance to move out of the opinion basement with a result in Colorado this coming Thursday.
Next week
(Predictions last week: 2-4...)
Rapids-RSL-- Rapids win
Toronto-Cbus-- Toronto win
NYRB-KC-- Red Bulls win
Revs-SJ-- Revs win
Fire-Houston-- Fire win (but if I had to pick an upset...)
Chivas-DCU-- Chivas win
FCD-LAG-- Dallas win
1. Chicago Fire (Last week: #1, beat #7 United away)
The Fire might not always look good, but they seem to win. The first 30 minutes against DC, they looked vulnerable. But they started to control match and never looked back.
2. Columbus Crew (Last week: #2, beat #13 San Jose away)
Robbie Rogers is now second in the league with five goals. Alejandro Moreno is right behind him with four. They're looking like a team with multiple weapons. The last time you could say that, McBride and Brian West were still wearing yellow.
The only knock on the Crew? They've had a surprisingly easy schedule, given how some former powers have crumbled. Not their fault and they're racking up points now.
3. New England Revolution (Last week: #4, beat #9 Chivas away)
Twellman scores, Ralston assists, Revs win. The Revs have a great starting 11 and they have good depth (albeit not enough to carry them through the injuries unscathed). The Revs are good.
4. Houston (Last week: #5, beat #8 Colorado at home)
It might have been a flukey performance, but you got the feeling that the Dynamo were building up some serious soccer karma during their long winless streak to start the season. Unlike fellow strugglers United, the Dynamo kept their heads up and benefitted from Bouna Condoul's goalkeeping clinic (as in a clinic on how not to clear a ball). Houston is, by far, the team with the least points among the MLS elite, but I'm sticking with them at #4.
5. Dallas (Last week: #3, lost to #14 Real Salt Lake away)
Kenny Cooper is unstoppable, but you can't say the same for Dallas. They might have done just enough to tie it up in Salt Lake, but the ball didn't go in. I've got to think that Juan Toja will get his season going soon-- he shows enough quality from game to game to suggest good things to come, even if it's not coming right now.
6. Toronto (Last week: #6, did not play)
Should Toronto be ranked higher? Maybe, but let's see how they take the Guevara show on the road and have to deal with a few more calls going against them.
7. New York Red Bulls (Last week: #10, beat #12 Galaxy away)
Juan Pablo Angel still isn't quite fit, but managed to score against the Galaxy (who wisely decided to sit accident-prone "defender" Abel Xavier). The Red Bulls are geting dynamic players back from injury (Richards and Freeman) at the same time they've lost players who impose structure on the game-- Reyna and Stammler. What will they look like when everyone's healthy? Hard to say: the teams currently in the middle of the pack-- #7-#11-- are tough teams to read.
8. Colorado (Last week: #8, lost to Houston away)
A loss to Houston away, on a disputed penalty kick, is not the worst thing that could happen, so the Rapids stay at #8. Gomez to Cummings is a great combo that I hope will produce a few more goals this season.
9. DC United (Last week: #7, lost to #1 Chicago at home)
When United turned it on late in the game against Chicago, they looked like a juggernaut. They only problem was that they were already down 2-0. Another poor performance from United that led GM and noted political essayist Thomas Paine to call out players for taking plays off. But I'll hesitate to punish them more for Thursday's performance: they may not play with heart, but I'd expect them to still beat lower ranked teams on pure talent. Definitely the year's most disappointing team so far.
10. Kansas City (Last week: #11, Did Not Play)
They move up based on Chivas' loss against the Revs.
11. Chivas USA (Last week: #9, lost to #4 Revolution at home)
Sure, they had a couple of key losses: Claudio Suarez to suspension and Bornstein to a long injury. But this team has NO depth. Look at their bench for this game:
1 - Dan Kennedy (GK)
17 - Justin Braun 59
22 - Keith Savage
24 - Atiba Harris 71
31 - Daniel Paladini 68
32 - Anthony Hamilton
34 - Gerson Mayen
With the exception of Atiba Harris, who is established (even if he's a red card waiting to happen every match), these are untested players. And Chivas was starting Eric Ebert and Bobby Burling. They've got some nice pieces, but it doesn't add up to a team right now.
12. Los Angeles Galaxy (Last week: #12, lost to #10 NY at home)
The Gals shouldn't be dropping home points to New York, but it's just a fact of life with this defense. If Becks and Donovan are covered and not contributing, the Gals have precious little other resources. I'm sure that the Big Two will continue to win games and the Gals may move up a little in the rankings, but what's really the best case scenario?
13. San Jose (Last week: #13, lost to #2 Columbus at home)
The Quakes scored. The right guys-- O'Brien, Corrales and Grabavoy-- are contributing. But they didn't get the win at home against a quality opponent, whereas...
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14, beat #3 Dallas at home)
Real Salt Lake did. They played ugly and got some points. Players are talking about it being a turning point. Javier Morales added a goal to his four assists. They're unbeaten at home. And yes, they're a point out of first in the to-date dreadful Western Conference.
But really, who would you expect RSL to beat consistently? They'll have a chance to move out of the opinion basement with a result in Colorado this coming Thursday.
Next week
(Predictions last week: 2-4...)
Rapids-RSL-- Rapids win
Toronto-Cbus-- Toronto win
NYRB-KC-- Red Bulls win
Revs-SJ-- Revs win
Fire-Houston-- Fire win (but if I had to pick an upset...)
Chivas-DCU-- Chivas win
FCD-LAG-- Dallas win
Friday, May 9, 2008
An Historic Event
Last night, over eighteen thousand spectators witnessed history at RFK. No, I'm not talking about DC's sponsorship deal with Volkswagen. I'm talking about the presence of three players with the first name Gonzalo being on the field at the same time (Martinez, Peralta, and Segares).
Unfortunately for DC, one Gonzalo was better than two in this case.
United had another miserable night. You might say that the head-scratching continues, but that wouldn't be quite right: I think we know what's wrong with United. Kevin Payne started to call out players for taking plays off. Coach Soehn called out Santino Quaranta for not marking Justin Mapp on the first Fire goal. Personally, I thought Quaranta's effort has been decent. Instead, I've been noticing more how Clyde Simms isn't controlling the midfield for United. He's a good player, so I first wondered whether it was because turnover on other parts of the field were leading to breakdowns that Simms had to clean up. That might be true to a point, but it looks like he's letting the game get away from him too-- his inability to close down Gomez (a tough task, no doubt) against Colorado definitely contributed to DC's loss.
In short, I think United needs a couple upgrades in the middle.
In other news
Have you ever noticed how worthless the fantasy player picks are in Kevin Costigan's weekly power rankings for Fox Sports? Ezra Hendrickson? Jesse Marsch? Shea Salinas? I'm not sure Costigan gets how fantasy sports work...
Unfortunately for DC, one Gonzalo was better than two in this case.
United had another miserable night. You might say that the head-scratching continues, but that wouldn't be quite right: I think we know what's wrong with United. Kevin Payne started to call out players for taking plays off. Coach Soehn called out Santino Quaranta for not marking Justin Mapp on the first Fire goal. Personally, I thought Quaranta's effort has been decent. Instead, I've been noticing more how Clyde Simms isn't controlling the midfield for United. He's a good player, so I first wondered whether it was because turnover on other parts of the field were leading to breakdowns that Simms had to clean up. That might be true to a point, but it looks like he's letting the game get away from him too-- his inability to close down Gomez (a tough task, no doubt) against Colorado definitely contributed to DC's loss.
In short, I think United needs a couple upgrades in the middle.
In other news
Have you ever noticed how worthless the fantasy player picks are in Kevin Costigan's weekly power rankings for Fox Sports? Ezra Hendrickson? Jesse Marsch? Shea Salinas? I'm not sure Costigan gets how fantasy sports work...
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
No, I'm pretty sure that's not the worst thing...
Primitive man feared nature, and thus needed to make up stories about it in order to make sense of the scary world.
I feel that Jamie Trecker has much the same reaction to "hype"-- unable to trust his own senses, and let down repeatedly by over-hyped players, he somehow believes hype is the biggest problem facing American soccer.
More "logic" from Jamie Trecker
He goes so far as to write the following: "We all want American soccer stars. But we have to be patient. The worst thing that can happen is for fans and the media to try and create them."
No, Jamie. That's not the worst thing. The worst thing that could happen is if a plane full of young American players went down like Busby's babes. The dim media glare fixed on Jozy Altidore doesn't really rank up there with true tragedy.
Like any Trecker piece, he's occasionally got a point: it would be nice if we could let kids be kids and not jump to conclusions too soon.
Hey, fair enough.
But at the same time, like any Trecker piece, it also doesn't make sense. He writes: "Our homegrown soccer players still do not face the rigid public scrutiny as they develop that our other athletes do, to their detriment. It's no shock that these men then have difficulties handling sudden attention."
Ok. So they have difficulties handling sudden attention, but you're advocating the Altidore receive less attention now? Because receiving no attention as a member of an MLS side will help prepare him for receiving a ton of attention in a foreign league?
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
I feel that Jamie Trecker has much the same reaction to "hype"-- unable to trust his own senses, and let down repeatedly by over-hyped players, he somehow believes hype is the biggest problem facing American soccer.
More "logic" from Jamie Trecker
He goes so far as to write the following: "We all want American soccer stars. But we have to be patient. The worst thing that can happen is for fans and the media to try and create them."
No, Jamie. That's not the worst thing. The worst thing that could happen is if a plane full of young American players went down like Busby's babes. The dim media glare fixed on Jozy Altidore doesn't really rank up there with true tragedy.
Like any Trecker piece, he's occasionally got a point: it would be nice if we could let kids be kids and not jump to conclusions too soon.
Hey, fair enough.
But at the same time, like any Trecker piece, it also doesn't make sense. He writes: "Our homegrown soccer players still do not face the rigid public scrutiny as they develop that our other athletes do, to their detriment. It's no shock that these men then have difficulties handling sudden attention."
Ok. So they have difficulties handling sudden attention, but you're advocating the Altidore receive less attention now? Because receiving no attention as a member of an MLS side will help prepare him for receiving a ton of attention in a foreign league?
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 6
Wow.
For a week that I thought would shake up the league, there are still more questions. We're now 1/5 of the way done with the season, but it's hard to pick out clear trends. The league has to be ecstatic that Beckham scored two goals in Salt Lake, but it's been a tougher road for other key players. On to the rankings...
1. Chicago (Last week: #5; beat #1 Revs away)
Winning 3-0 away is hard enough. Winning 3-0 away against a good team that you beat 4-0, partly on the back of a very early red card, takes it to another level. Chicago went to the Revs and had a game plan-- defend in numbers and play hard counter-attacking soccer. Having Chris Rolfe back on the field helped, and Blanco, although he didn't score or assist, has got to be one of the best players for counter-attacks because of his vision.
But is the Fire the best team in the league? Some of the things that make them a good team on the counter can make them look pretty awful when they have to control possession, and they are fortunate to have the points they do. But if John Thorington is back for good, Rolfe is healthy and old man Blanco stays on the field, the Fire have got to be looking at their rivals and asking "Why not us?"
2. Columbus (Last week: #6; beat #8 KC at home)
The Crew top the league tables. They won the battle of the sleeper teams against KC fairly comfortably. Robbie Rogers looks like he's fulfilling his promise. And Alejandro Moreno is on the goal leaderboard.
So why aren't the Crew #1? Partly, it's because they've amassed their record against teams in precisely the right moment. It looked like a brutal schedule ahead of the season, with early season tilts against Houston, DC and Chivas. But all three of those teams have yet to get going. Their win against Toronto occurred before the Reds added a couple of studs to the roster. I have a feeling that they are paper tigers.
But there's another side to winning against teams in difficult moments: up to a point, it just doesn't matter as long as you get the points. The 2000 KC Wizards weren't necessarily the best team in the league despite a record winning streak, but they were winners and eventually champions. I could see the Crew doing something similar.
3. FC Dallas (Last week: #2; tied #13 San Jose away)
I expect better from Dallas than an away tie against an expansion team. But it wasn't just a case of balls not falling-- Dallas just didn't get going, despite having a high-powered offense. So we'll call it an off week. Besides, who's clearly better?
4. New England Revolution (Last week: #1; lost to #5 Fire at home)
New England was miserable, apparently more motivated by revenge than soccer sense.
But Twellman is back soon, Ralston played as a sub and the Revs aren't a bad team.
5. Houston (Last week: #4; tied #9 Chivas at home)
Good teams win at home. Houston again dictated terms in its home match against Chivas, but couldn't find its way to goal. They need to do better, but I'm not going to rank them lower until they start playing really poorly.
The risk is that, just as the 2000 KC Wizards turned winning into a habit just by playing uninspiring but absolutely consistent soccer, Houston can turn losing into a habit, despite having the horses to ride so much harder.
6. Toronto (Last week: #7; tied #11 New York)
Now that Toronto's playing with the big boys, it's not enough to put in a decent effort. And they were fortunate Laurent Robert caught the NY D napping. I am wondering why Jeff Cunningham isn't getting more chances. Dichio is useful, but if Cunningham still has it, he's far superior.
7. DC United (Last week: #3; lost to #12 Colorado)
DC hasn't won in Colorado in 8 years, but I though they were superior enough to Colorado to pull it out. But United was not up to the task. They were lucky to go down only by two goals. That said, I wouldn't penalize a team too much for an away loss, especially in such a tough place to play.
So United's not dropping four places because of the loss. They're dropping three places because of this:
Ben Olsen Is Not Coming Back Soon.
United is famous for its great foreign players, like Etch, Moreno, Gomez, Emilio and now Gallardo. But much of their recent success has come from more humble names: Gros, Carroll, Namoff and most of all Ben Olsen. These guys provided bite and energy. Only Namoff remains. The replacements for these players may, in fact, be superior players, but there is no replacement for their work rate.
But the loss of Olsen is the hardest hit. United simply is not as good a team without him.
8. Colorado (Last week: #12; beat #3 United at home)
Colorado absolutely dominated DC. Yes, they did give up more than a few chances, but they also could have scored more. LaBrocca, Cummings and Jacobsen created more than the United defense could handle. When Jacobsen finally scored his wonder goal, you couldn't call yourself surprised.
9. Chivas USA (Last week: #9; tied #4 Houston away)
Yes, they got a point away. But yes, they got dominated and their shambolic defense will lose Claudio Suarez to a red card suspension. This might be what you can expect from the Goats this year.
10. New York (Last week: #11; tied #7 Toronto away)
A few thoughts: the team looked better with Reyna than Ubiparovich in the middle... Dane Richards' speed also changed the game (for the better). Angel and Altidore were relatively quiet. I think NY has weapons, but they're just not an inspiring team at this point.
11. Kansas City (Last week: #8; lost to #6 Columbus away)
The pieces aren't there for this team to take advantage of Lopez.
12. LA Galaxy (Last week: #10; ties #14 Real Salt Lake away)
It took the Gals a half to figure out Salt Lake's turf, and then Beckham scores twice. Don Garber rejoices.
They probably don't deserve to drop two places, but are they better than any of the teams above them?
13. San Jose (Last week: #13; ties #2 Dallas at home)
Ronnie O'Brien and Ivan Guerrero are actually good players. Who knew? Judging by some reports, it's breaking news.
San Jose is capable of controlling play. The forwards still aren't good enough. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14; ties #10 Galaxy at home)
The optimist says "Hey RSL got a point!" The pessimist notes that they were up by two goals. Despite all the talk about their improvement, does anyone really think they'll make the playoffs?
In other news, Javier Morales has 4 assists already. Is he the secret hero for the Gulls?
Next week
DCU-CHI: Tie
HOU-COL: Houston win
RSL-DAL: Dallas win
SJ-CLB: Cbus win
LA-NY: LA win
Chivas-NE: Chivas win
For a week that I thought would shake up the league, there are still more questions. We're now 1/5 of the way done with the season, but it's hard to pick out clear trends. The league has to be ecstatic that Beckham scored two goals in Salt Lake, but it's been a tougher road for other key players. On to the rankings...
1. Chicago (Last week: #5; beat #1 Revs away)
Winning 3-0 away is hard enough. Winning 3-0 away against a good team that you beat 4-0, partly on the back of a very early red card, takes it to another level. Chicago went to the Revs and had a game plan-- defend in numbers and play hard counter-attacking soccer. Having Chris Rolfe back on the field helped, and Blanco, although he didn't score or assist, has got to be one of the best players for counter-attacks because of his vision.
But is the Fire the best team in the league? Some of the things that make them a good team on the counter can make them look pretty awful when they have to control possession, and they are fortunate to have the points they do. But if John Thorington is back for good, Rolfe is healthy and old man Blanco stays on the field, the Fire have got to be looking at their rivals and asking "Why not us?"
2. Columbus (Last week: #6; beat #8 KC at home)
The Crew top the league tables. They won the battle of the sleeper teams against KC fairly comfortably. Robbie Rogers looks like he's fulfilling his promise. And Alejandro Moreno is on the goal leaderboard.
So why aren't the Crew #1? Partly, it's because they've amassed their record against teams in precisely the right moment. It looked like a brutal schedule ahead of the season, with early season tilts against Houston, DC and Chivas. But all three of those teams have yet to get going. Their win against Toronto occurred before the Reds added a couple of studs to the roster. I have a feeling that they are paper tigers.
But there's another side to winning against teams in difficult moments: up to a point, it just doesn't matter as long as you get the points. The 2000 KC Wizards weren't necessarily the best team in the league despite a record winning streak, but they were winners and eventually champions. I could see the Crew doing something similar.
3. FC Dallas (Last week: #2; tied #13 San Jose away)
I expect better from Dallas than an away tie against an expansion team. But it wasn't just a case of balls not falling-- Dallas just didn't get going, despite having a high-powered offense. So we'll call it an off week. Besides, who's clearly better?
4. New England Revolution (Last week: #1; lost to #5 Fire at home)
New England was miserable, apparently more motivated by revenge than soccer sense.
But Twellman is back soon, Ralston played as a sub and the Revs aren't a bad team.
5. Houston (Last week: #4; tied #9 Chivas at home)
Good teams win at home. Houston again dictated terms in its home match against Chivas, but couldn't find its way to goal. They need to do better, but I'm not going to rank them lower until they start playing really poorly.
The risk is that, just as the 2000 KC Wizards turned winning into a habit just by playing uninspiring but absolutely consistent soccer, Houston can turn losing into a habit, despite having the horses to ride so much harder.
6. Toronto (Last week: #7; tied #11 New York)
Now that Toronto's playing with the big boys, it's not enough to put in a decent effort. And they were fortunate Laurent Robert caught the NY D napping. I am wondering why Jeff Cunningham isn't getting more chances. Dichio is useful, but if Cunningham still has it, he's far superior.
7. DC United (Last week: #3; lost to #12 Colorado)
DC hasn't won in Colorado in 8 years, but I though they were superior enough to Colorado to pull it out. But United was not up to the task. They were lucky to go down only by two goals. That said, I wouldn't penalize a team too much for an away loss, especially in such a tough place to play.
So United's not dropping four places because of the loss. They're dropping three places because of this:
Ben Olsen Is Not Coming Back Soon.
United is famous for its great foreign players, like Etch, Moreno, Gomez, Emilio and now Gallardo. But much of their recent success has come from more humble names: Gros, Carroll, Namoff and most of all Ben Olsen. These guys provided bite and energy. Only Namoff remains. The replacements for these players may, in fact, be superior players, but there is no replacement for their work rate.
But the loss of Olsen is the hardest hit. United simply is not as good a team without him.
8. Colorado (Last week: #12; beat #3 United at home)
Colorado absolutely dominated DC. Yes, they did give up more than a few chances, but they also could have scored more. LaBrocca, Cummings and Jacobsen created more than the United defense could handle. When Jacobsen finally scored his wonder goal, you couldn't call yourself surprised.
9. Chivas USA (Last week: #9; tied #4 Houston away)
Yes, they got a point away. But yes, they got dominated and their shambolic defense will lose Claudio Suarez to a red card suspension. This might be what you can expect from the Goats this year.
10. New York (Last week: #11; tied #7 Toronto away)
A few thoughts: the team looked better with Reyna than Ubiparovich in the middle... Dane Richards' speed also changed the game (for the better). Angel and Altidore were relatively quiet. I think NY has weapons, but they're just not an inspiring team at this point.
11. Kansas City (Last week: #8; lost to #6 Columbus away)
The pieces aren't there for this team to take advantage of Lopez.
12. LA Galaxy (Last week: #10; ties #14 Real Salt Lake away)
It took the Gals a half to figure out Salt Lake's turf, and then Beckham scores twice. Don Garber rejoices.
They probably don't deserve to drop two places, but are they better than any of the teams above them?
13. San Jose (Last week: #13; ties #2 Dallas at home)
Ronnie O'Brien and Ivan Guerrero are actually good players. Who knew? Judging by some reports, it's breaking news.
San Jose is capable of controlling play. The forwards still aren't good enough. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14; ties #10 Galaxy at home)
The optimist says "Hey RSL got a point!" The pessimist notes that they were up by two goals. Despite all the talk about their improvement, does anyone really think they'll make the playoffs?
In other news, Javier Morales has 4 assists already. Is he the secret hero for the Gulls?
Next week
DCU-CHI: Tie
HOU-COL: Houston win
RSL-DAL: Dallas win
SJ-CLB: Cbus win
LA-NY: LA win
Chivas-NE: Chivas win
Sunday, April 27, 2008
MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 5
This week's rankings also serve as a soapbox about the foolishness of "results-ism". The Galaxy crushed the Goats this weekend 5-2 in the Superclasico. But yet, here they are, ranked a place below Chivas USA in the rankings. You don't get ranked higher than another team just by beating them, especially in front of your home fans.
That said, there's a new #1...
#1. New England. (Last week: #2, beat #1 FCD)
Winning 1-0 away is exactly the kind of result that Revs coach Steve Nichol built his career on. It's easy to forget that, before the Revs became an offensive powerhouse, they were a brutally ugly but efficient team.
#2. Dallas. (Last week: #1, lost to #2 Revs)
Last week, Dallas was in first by default. This week, they're in second because they couldn't extend their unbeaten run against New England. They had their chances against the Revs, but got punished by a cohesive, efficient team.
#3. DC United. (Last week: #5, beat #14 RSL)
The crushing win against league lapdogs Real Salt Lake was expected, so they barely deserve this ranking. Their first half against RSL was bad. Emilio still hasn't gotten back on track. And Fred, perhaps United's brightest player this season, went out with injury. But who would you pick over them in a cage match? And how about Gallardo's goal?
#4. Houston Dynamo (Last week: #2, lost to #8 Crew).
I might just cut and paste the following: "Houston looked good at times and will certainly get back on track at some point."
That said, Pat Onstad made a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes in goal. Reports of his demise have been, not only exagerated, but premature by years, but this team is only a couple of backup Tony Caig horror shows from digging itself into a very deep hole.
#5. Chicago Fire. (Last week: #6, beat #10 Colorado).
Well, the Fire should beat the Rapids in Chicago, so this isn't a game that will answer many questions about them (plus, I couldn't watch the game on HDNet...) But isn't it nice to see John Thorrington score a brace?
#6. Columbus. (Last week: #8, beat #3 Houston).
Is Alejandro Moreno ready for a career year? I'm still not sold on the Crew, but I've always thought that all they needed was a little more seasoning. Maybe they're there.
#7 Toronto. (Last week: #9, beat #4 KC).
Last week I said, "At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players." Amado Guevara puts on a great show and wins the game for the Reds.
The bad news? The fact that Guevara is on fire now can only mean one thing: he'll go nuts in a few weeks.
The other bad news? Just because Rohan Ricketts spent time in the premiership doesn't mean he got the better of KC's Harrington. I feel like each of Toronto's new signings and key players is like a character in a Greek tragedy, blessed with specific talents that will lead them to great success, but also each stricken with a fatal flaw. Robert can give incredible service, but seems to drift out of games. Ricketts is fast but might need a few tricks, as well as better distribution to be truly effective. Guevara is a star, but he's nuttier than squirrel doo.
#8. Kansas City. (Last week #4, lost to #9 TFC)
I think people need to get used to this: good teams will drop points in Toronto. So, despite the loss by KC, I feel like I got a better sense of who they are. Chance Myers and Michael Harrington did a lot of constructive things. Roger Espinoza needs some work. As commentator Bruce Arena pointed out, KC would play some good D before coughing up the ball needlessly. And the vaunted attack never quite got going.
#9. Chivas USA. (Last week #7, lost to #12 LAG)
The good: the Goats come back twice in 60 minutes. The bad: the Goats go down by three goals in the last 30 minutes, including two strikes from former leper Alan Gordon. Chivas looks like they're still trying to get into the season and injuries haven't helped. But I think they're a playoff team that can count themselves lucky that they don't have to play against an enraged Landon Donovan every week. That has a tendency to make things seem worse than they really are, which is how I'm going to view this past week's result.
#10. LA Galaxy. (Last week: #12, beat #7 CUSA)
Donovan leads the league in goals by a mile. Beckham leads the league in assists. And the Galaxy are a .500 team. Part of that is that the Galaxy are still great at making me smile: Xavier is good for at least one moment of comedy each game. I thought it was instructive that Gullit singled out young defender Sean Franklin for praise after the game. If the Gals are to be anything more than a .500 team, even with Donovan crushing the league, they need more contributions from players like Franklin.
Scary bad question for Gullit: Will the return of Carlos Ruiz help or hurt this team?
Scary good question for the league and its fans: How awesome would it be if the Gals and Chivas USA were fighting it out for the last playoff spot? It's early and midseason acquisitions can completely change teams, but both teams look to be on the fringe right now.
#11. New York. (Last week: #11, beat #13 SJ)
It's good that they managed to win without Angel, but they still look like a team that's missing something.
#12. Colorado. (Last week: #10, lost to #6 Chicago)
I didn't expect the kids to get it done away to Chicago-- that's asking for a lot.
#13. San Jose. (Last week: #13, lost to #11 NY)
They'll be in more games than they're out of. And if Peguero is able to recover the form he had in his first MLS stay, I woudln't be shocked to see the Quakes climb a little in the west.
#14. Real Salt Lake. (Last week: #14, lost to #5 DCU)
After crushing DCU at home, you kind of expected the Gulls to get crushed when they visited the District. And so it was.
Their next game against the Galaxy could be fascinating. If RSL cant' get anything positive out of that, is it too early to think about moves they need to make?
Next week (Last week: 3-4)
The next week looks awesome. We're going to learn alot. The two most enigmatic teams, KC and Cbus, face off. The Revs face a supposedly tough Chicago team.
Thursday
Toronto-NYRB- Toronto win
Revs-Chicago- Revs win
Crew-KC- Crew win
Dynamo-CUSA- Dynamo win
RSL-LAG- RSL win
SJ-FCD- FCD win
Rapids-DCU- DCU win
That said, there's a new #1...
#1. New England. (Last week: #2, beat #1 FCD)
Winning 1-0 away is exactly the kind of result that Revs coach Steve Nichol built his career on. It's easy to forget that, before the Revs became an offensive powerhouse, they were a brutally ugly but efficient team.
#2. Dallas. (Last week: #1, lost to #2 Revs)
Last week, Dallas was in first by default. This week, they're in second because they couldn't extend their unbeaten run against New England. They had their chances against the Revs, but got punished by a cohesive, efficient team.
#3. DC United. (Last week: #5, beat #14 RSL)
The crushing win against league lapdogs Real Salt Lake was expected, so they barely deserve this ranking. Their first half against RSL was bad. Emilio still hasn't gotten back on track. And Fred, perhaps United's brightest player this season, went out with injury. But who would you pick over them in a cage match? And how about Gallardo's goal?
#4. Houston Dynamo (Last week: #2, lost to #8 Crew).
I might just cut and paste the following: "Houston looked good at times and will certainly get back on track at some point."
That said, Pat Onstad made a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes in goal. Reports of his demise have been, not only exagerated, but premature by years, but this team is only a couple of backup Tony Caig horror shows from digging itself into a very deep hole.
#5. Chicago Fire. (Last week: #6, beat #10 Colorado).
Well, the Fire should beat the Rapids in Chicago, so this isn't a game that will answer many questions about them (plus, I couldn't watch the game on HDNet...) But isn't it nice to see John Thorrington score a brace?
#6. Columbus. (Last week: #8, beat #3 Houston).
Is Alejandro Moreno ready for a career year? I'm still not sold on the Crew, but I've always thought that all they needed was a little more seasoning. Maybe they're there.
#7 Toronto. (Last week: #9, beat #4 KC).
Last week I said, "At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players." Amado Guevara puts on a great show and wins the game for the Reds.
The bad news? The fact that Guevara is on fire now can only mean one thing: he'll go nuts in a few weeks.
The other bad news? Just because Rohan Ricketts spent time in the premiership doesn't mean he got the better of KC's Harrington. I feel like each of Toronto's new signings and key players is like a character in a Greek tragedy, blessed with specific talents that will lead them to great success, but also each stricken with a fatal flaw. Robert can give incredible service, but seems to drift out of games. Ricketts is fast but might need a few tricks, as well as better distribution to be truly effective. Guevara is a star, but he's nuttier than squirrel doo.
#8. Kansas City. (Last week #4, lost to #9 TFC)
I think people need to get used to this: good teams will drop points in Toronto. So, despite the loss by KC, I feel like I got a better sense of who they are. Chance Myers and Michael Harrington did a lot of constructive things. Roger Espinoza needs some work. As commentator Bruce Arena pointed out, KC would play some good D before coughing up the ball needlessly. And the vaunted attack never quite got going.
#9. Chivas USA. (Last week #7, lost to #12 LAG)
The good: the Goats come back twice in 60 minutes. The bad: the Goats go down by three goals in the last 30 minutes, including two strikes from former leper Alan Gordon. Chivas looks like they're still trying to get into the season and injuries haven't helped. But I think they're a playoff team that can count themselves lucky that they don't have to play against an enraged Landon Donovan every week. That has a tendency to make things seem worse than they really are, which is how I'm going to view this past week's result.
#10. LA Galaxy. (Last week: #12, beat #7 CUSA)
Donovan leads the league in goals by a mile. Beckham leads the league in assists. And the Galaxy are a .500 team. Part of that is that the Galaxy are still great at making me smile: Xavier is good for at least one moment of comedy each game. I thought it was instructive that Gullit singled out young defender Sean Franklin for praise after the game. If the Gals are to be anything more than a .500 team, even with Donovan crushing the league, they need more contributions from players like Franklin.
Scary bad question for Gullit: Will the return of Carlos Ruiz help or hurt this team?
Scary good question for the league and its fans: How awesome would it be if the Gals and Chivas USA were fighting it out for the last playoff spot? It's early and midseason acquisitions can completely change teams, but both teams look to be on the fringe right now.
#11. New York. (Last week: #11, beat #13 SJ)
It's good that they managed to win without Angel, but they still look like a team that's missing something.
#12. Colorado. (Last week: #10, lost to #6 Chicago)
I didn't expect the kids to get it done away to Chicago-- that's asking for a lot.
#13. San Jose. (Last week: #13, lost to #11 NY)
They'll be in more games than they're out of. And if Peguero is able to recover the form he had in his first MLS stay, I woudln't be shocked to see the Quakes climb a little in the west.
#14. Real Salt Lake. (Last week: #14, lost to #5 DCU)
After crushing DCU at home, you kind of expected the Gulls to get crushed when they visited the District. And so it was.
Their next game against the Galaxy could be fascinating. If RSL cant' get anything positive out of that, is it too early to think about moves they need to make?
Next week (Last week: 3-4)
The next week looks awesome. We're going to learn alot. The two most enigmatic teams, KC and Cbus, face off. The Revs face a supposedly tough Chicago team.
Thursday
Toronto-NYRB- Toronto win
Revs-Chicago- Revs win
Crew-KC- Crew win
Dynamo-CUSA- Dynamo win
RSL-LAG- RSL win
SJ-FCD- FCD win
Rapids-DCU- DCU win
Monday, April 21, 2008
MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week Four
So, I've always wanted to try this, even though it seems like an impossible task.
It's one of those things that people argue about, mostly because they don't agree on what rankings should mean: do they mean the best team at this moment? Should they rank teams by their potential to reach the highest peak? Or should they reward consistency over the season?
For me, the answer is both. These attempted rankings combine both my assessment of a team's potential (which is why United isn't near the bottom) and their current form (which is why KC and Dallas do well).
To see if these rankings have any predictive power, I'm also going to test them against next week's results. Home teams will be considered favorites to win, unless a team is three spots above them in the rankings. In that case, a draw is predicted, unless the team is a total of six spots above their opponent in the rankings. We'll see...
1. FC Dallas. D looked shakey in the first couple of matches, but they might be settling down. Cooper is in form. That said, Dallas is first by default.
2. New England. I loved how they played in the face of adversity against Chicago and again against New York this past week. But ask yourself why they're always putting themselves into adverse situations?
3. Houston. A point on the road is good. Yes, they are in last place in the West. And I still don't know if Houston will be able to score, but I like the team otherwise. If Houston only has one problem, I expect that it will get fixed by Kinnear.
4. Kansas City. They are here because of results. I haven't watched enough games to get comfortable with the idea that Michael Harrington, Chance Myers, Kurt Morsink, Jack Jewsbury, Roger Espinoza and Tyson Wahl form the no-name backbone of an elite MLS team the same way that Brian Carrol, Brian Namoff and Josh Gros did with DC United. You underrate lesser known guys in MLS at your peril, so I'm not trying to do that here.
5. DC United. Gallardo might be an upgrade over Christian Gomez, but he doesn't give the team precisely what it needs, which is what Gomez did so well. The team also needs Ben Olsen's bite and leadership-- but Benny might not be returning soon. And Jaime Moreno is, indeed, a year older. The reworked defense has been both bad and unlucky. So why is United so high? C'mon. The team constructed to win the Champions Cup ought to be able to show a little professionalism in MLS and start winning games.
6. Chicago. I think they're underachievers. Justin Mapp had a good game yesterday against KC. Blanco was dangerous. Chad Barrett, when he wasn't imitating Shea Salinas, showed that he is useful. Frankowski does little things that MLS forwards don't do. But when you put it all together, they frequently look terrible.
7. Chivas USA. Something seems off in Goatland. Mendoza needs to develop into a true 10. Razov needs to stay healthy. Klejstan needs to stay on the field. Maybe the defeat against Dallas is because none of those things happened. But I'm not sure this year's Chivas is a #1 seed.
8. Columbus. They're 3-1-0, so it's probably harsh to rank them here, but I guess I just don't believe it. Then I look at their roster against DC:
1 - Will Hesmer (GK)
2 - Frankie Hejduk
4 - Gino Padula
5 - Danny O'Rourke
7 - Guillermo Barros Schelotto
10 - Alejandro Moreno
12 - Eddie Gaven 63
14 - Chad Marshall
16 - Brian Carroll
19 - Robbie Rogers 90
22 - Adam Moffat 85
To me, that looks like a good MLS roster, full of potential MLS superstars. That said, the Crew has been full of potential superstars for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked out well.
9. Toronto FC. I might be ranking them too high here, but I'm impressed by Robert's efficiency. Guevara is an MLS superstar. Jeff Cunningham can score goals. Edu is awesome. At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players.
10. Colorado. I know the kids are supposed to be budding superstars, all. Colin Clark, indeed, looks like the real deal, but I haven't watched enough of DiRaimundo and LaBrocca to say for sure. But I do know that young players hit walls and that Colorado's defense includes both Erpen and Burciaga. I think they're heading for a fall.
11. New York. I want to rank them highly. I really do. When Angel returns from injury (permanently), they'll do better. But I think we've seen the league pass this team by. They've got a lot of question marks all over the field (even up top: can Wolyniec still be spark plug off the bench?)
12. LA. They just look like a deeply flawed team. Some of the problems might be easier to fix (surely, somewhere in the world, there's got to be a better forward who will take the $70,000 that Alan Gordon is getting). But there's just too much non-descript talent on this team right now. That said, if any tandem in the league can put a team into the playoffs on pure talent and willpower, it is LD and Beckham.
13. SJ. LA pretty comprehensively handled SJ, but I think the California Derby should be good stuff this year. SJ really took it to Chicago and finally got their deserved points at Colorado. They are dangerous, but probably need a little more seasoning before they'll convert regularly.
14. RSL. Another team I'd like to rank more highly. I like Kreis's team-first philosophy. But outside of Kovalenko and Beckerman, is there anyone on the roster that isn't an enigma?
So, going by these rankings, here are the predictions for the week...
Thursday:
FCD-Revs: FCD win
Saturday:
TFC-KC: draw
Crew-Dynamo: draw
DCU-RSL: DCU win
Fire-Rapids: Fire win
Sunday:
LAG-CUSA: draw
NY-SJ: NY win
It's one of those things that people argue about, mostly because they don't agree on what rankings should mean: do they mean the best team at this moment? Should they rank teams by their potential to reach the highest peak? Or should they reward consistency over the season?
For me, the answer is both. These attempted rankings combine both my assessment of a team's potential (which is why United isn't near the bottom) and their current form (which is why KC and Dallas do well).
To see if these rankings have any predictive power, I'm also going to test them against next week's results. Home teams will be considered favorites to win, unless a team is three spots above them in the rankings. In that case, a draw is predicted, unless the team is a total of six spots above their opponent in the rankings. We'll see...
1. FC Dallas. D looked shakey in the first couple of matches, but they might be settling down. Cooper is in form. That said, Dallas is first by default.
2. New England. I loved how they played in the face of adversity against Chicago and again against New York this past week. But ask yourself why they're always putting themselves into adverse situations?
3. Houston. A point on the road is good. Yes, they are in last place in the West. And I still don't know if Houston will be able to score, but I like the team otherwise. If Houston only has one problem, I expect that it will get fixed by Kinnear.
4. Kansas City. They are here because of results. I haven't watched enough games to get comfortable with the idea that Michael Harrington, Chance Myers, Kurt Morsink, Jack Jewsbury, Roger Espinoza and Tyson Wahl form the no-name backbone of an elite MLS team the same way that Brian Carrol, Brian Namoff and Josh Gros did with DC United. You underrate lesser known guys in MLS at your peril, so I'm not trying to do that here.
5. DC United. Gallardo might be an upgrade over Christian Gomez, but he doesn't give the team precisely what it needs, which is what Gomez did so well. The team also needs Ben Olsen's bite and leadership-- but Benny might not be returning soon. And Jaime Moreno is, indeed, a year older. The reworked defense has been both bad and unlucky. So why is United so high? C'mon. The team constructed to win the Champions Cup ought to be able to show a little professionalism in MLS and start winning games.
6. Chicago. I think they're underachievers. Justin Mapp had a good game yesterday against KC. Blanco was dangerous. Chad Barrett, when he wasn't imitating Shea Salinas, showed that he is useful. Frankowski does little things that MLS forwards don't do. But when you put it all together, they frequently look terrible.
7. Chivas USA. Something seems off in Goatland. Mendoza needs to develop into a true 10. Razov needs to stay healthy. Klejstan needs to stay on the field. Maybe the defeat against Dallas is because none of those things happened. But I'm not sure this year's Chivas is a #1 seed.
8. Columbus. They're 3-1-0, so it's probably harsh to rank them here, but I guess I just don't believe it. Then I look at their roster against DC:
1 - Will Hesmer (GK)
2 - Frankie Hejduk
4 - Gino Padula
5 - Danny O'Rourke
7 - Guillermo Barros Schelotto
10 - Alejandro Moreno
12 - Eddie Gaven 63
14 - Chad Marshall
16 - Brian Carroll
19 - Robbie Rogers 90
22 - Adam Moffat 85
To me, that looks like a good MLS roster, full of potential MLS superstars. That said, the Crew has been full of potential superstars for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked out well.
9. Toronto FC. I might be ranking them too high here, but I'm impressed by Robert's efficiency. Guevara is an MLS superstar. Jeff Cunningham can score goals. Edu is awesome. At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players.
10. Colorado. I know the kids are supposed to be budding superstars, all. Colin Clark, indeed, looks like the real deal, but I haven't watched enough of DiRaimundo and LaBrocca to say for sure. But I do know that young players hit walls and that Colorado's defense includes both Erpen and Burciaga. I think they're heading for a fall.
11. New York. I want to rank them highly. I really do. When Angel returns from injury (permanently), they'll do better. But I think we've seen the league pass this team by. They've got a lot of question marks all over the field (even up top: can Wolyniec still be spark plug off the bench?)
12. LA. They just look like a deeply flawed team. Some of the problems might be easier to fix (surely, somewhere in the world, there's got to be a better forward who will take the $70,000 that Alan Gordon is getting). But there's just too much non-descript talent on this team right now. That said, if any tandem in the league can put a team into the playoffs on pure talent and willpower, it is LD and Beckham.
13. SJ. LA pretty comprehensively handled SJ, but I think the California Derby should be good stuff this year. SJ really took it to Chicago and finally got their deserved points at Colorado. They are dangerous, but probably need a little more seasoning before they'll convert regularly.
14. RSL. Another team I'd like to rank more highly. I like Kreis's team-first philosophy. But outside of Kovalenko and Beckerman, is there anyone on the roster that isn't an enigma?
So, going by these rankings, here are the predictions for the week...
Thursday:
FCD-Revs: FCD win
Saturday:
TFC-KC: draw
Crew-Dynamo: draw
DCU-RSL: DCU win
Fire-Rapids: Fire win
Sunday:
LAG-CUSA: draw
NY-SJ: NY win
The Road to MLS Cup XIII, Week Four
1. LA-Houston
LA forward Alan Gordon was removed at halftime for the defensive-minded new acquisition Joey Franchino when the Galaxy was down a goal. Not a typical move for a team that's chasing a game, but in this case, it gave the Galaxy the possession they needed and they go on to score two goals.
The Galaxy are a weird team, huh? As much as I don't like the Gals geriatric movement where they essentially traded away all of their young prospects to make cap space for Xavier, Klein and Vanney, I do like the move for Franchino. His cap number is low (only $50,000) but he's a bulldog. Rumored personal issues probably contributed to his exit from New England, but the guy has bite-- something that the lackadaisical Galaxy frequently lack.
So where does this leave Gordon? I'll be curious to see whether he starts the next game on the bench.
But if David Beckham hasn't turned Gordon into a 10 goal striker, it looks like he might perform an even better trick with Landon Donovan. LD's got 5 goals in four games. Donovan continues to be a frustrating player-- when he gets mad, he starts playing at a level far above any other field player in MLS. The problem is that you never know when Donovan's going to respond that way. But Beckham's incisive passing makes it a little easier for Donvoan to be The Man. There's a lot to like about this partnership. Beckham probably won't challenge the all-time mark for most assists (26)in a season set by Carlos Valderrama (with a fair amount of help from Mamadou Diallo), but both he and Donovan are off to a fast start.
2. The Fire are who we thought they were.
Ironically, the first time the Fire control the run of play for a good chunk of a match, they lose, 1-0 at home to the Wizards. But while the Fire dominated for large periods, they showed their other side, too: for the first 15 minutes or so, the Fire simply boomed long balls forward from the defenders. The strategy makes no sense when you've got Cuahtemoc Blanco in the midfield. They looked terrible. Only the much-maligned Justin Mapp did anything constructive.
But then Blanco starts seeing more of the ball and the show starts. Blanco always looks like he's running in knee-deep mud, but somehow the ball just eludes defenders. And then he always makes the pass between two defenders with a Chicago player making a slight diagonal run. While some MLS teams seem to be able to pass effectively without creating danger (DC United, so far), the Fire frequently create maximum danger out of only one or two good passes. But whatever they gained from their penetrating passing, they lost through incoherence in front of goal. Chad Barrett pulled a Shea Salinas and sent a point blank shot in front of goal straight up. Gonzalo Segares and Andy Herron were sent in on goal but then couldn't decide who should shoot. And when Kansas dropped back to defend their lead, Chicago lacked aggression.
LA forward Alan Gordon was removed at halftime for the defensive-minded new acquisition Joey Franchino when the Galaxy was down a goal. Not a typical move for a team that's chasing a game, but in this case, it gave the Galaxy the possession they needed and they go on to score two goals.
The Galaxy are a weird team, huh? As much as I don't like the Gals geriatric movement where they essentially traded away all of their young prospects to make cap space for Xavier, Klein and Vanney, I do like the move for Franchino. His cap number is low (only $50,000) but he's a bulldog. Rumored personal issues probably contributed to his exit from New England, but the guy has bite-- something that the lackadaisical Galaxy frequently lack.
So where does this leave Gordon? I'll be curious to see whether he starts the next game on the bench.
But if David Beckham hasn't turned Gordon into a 10 goal striker, it looks like he might perform an even better trick with Landon Donovan. LD's got 5 goals in four games. Donovan continues to be a frustrating player-- when he gets mad, he starts playing at a level far above any other field player in MLS. The problem is that you never know when Donovan's going to respond that way. But Beckham's incisive passing makes it a little easier for Donvoan to be The Man. There's a lot to like about this partnership. Beckham probably won't challenge the all-time mark for most assists (26)in a season set by Carlos Valderrama (with a fair amount of help from Mamadou Diallo), but both he and Donovan are off to a fast start.
2. The Fire are who we thought they were.
Ironically, the first time the Fire control the run of play for a good chunk of a match, they lose, 1-0 at home to the Wizards. But while the Fire dominated for large periods, they showed their other side, too: for the first 15 minutes or so, the Fire simply boomed long balls forward from the defenders. The strategy makes no sense when you've got Cuahtemoc Blanco in the midfield. They looked terrible. Only the much-maligned Justin Mapp did anything constructive.
But then Blanco starts seeing more of the ball and the show starts. Blanco always looks like he's running in knee-deep mud, but somehow the ball just eludes defenders. And then he always makes the pass between two defenders with a Chicago player making a slight diagonal run. While some MLS teams seem to be able to pass effectively without creating danger (DC United, so far), the Fire frequently create maximum danger out of only one or two good passes. But whatever they gained from their penetrating passing, they lost through incoherence in front of goal. Chad Barrett pulled a Shea Salinas and sent a point blank shot in front of goal straight up. Gonzalo Segares and Andy Herron were sent in on goal but then couldn't decide who should shoot. And when Kansas dropped back to defend their lead, Chicago lacked aggression.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Early Season Players to Watch
A few players have caught my eye, for reasons both good and bad, early in this MLS season.
(1) Dominic Oduro. When he entered late in the Houston-FC Dallas match, I remember thinking "man, this guy is great. Look at that speed. Houston's clearly got no answer for that. Wow... look at this run. Great run. Now all he's got to do is pass the ball to the left and the on-rushing attacker will definitely socre. Yeah. Great run. Now just pass the ball. Just. Pass. The. Ball. Ugh."
Oduro's selfishness almost certainly cost FCD three points there.
He sat on the bench next week against New York.
(2) Laurent Robert. You know, for being a guy who was "playing" in the Premiership months ago, I really haven't noticed him much in the two games I've watched. That is, until he creates a chance out of nothing, like he did with a strange-looking dipping service against DC United, or as he did a couple of times against the Galaxy. What's the story with him? I think it's funny that opinions diverge quite a bit. See this sample:
"Laurent Robert, one of Toronto FC's recent acquisitions, looks past it. Many of his crosses sailed harmlessly out of bounds (ala Landon Donovan at the 2006 World Cup). Even worse, he’s either not fit or not trying."
--Grahame Frasier, MLS Outsider
Link
"Lauren Robert's free kick finds the rookie Jarrod Smith's head."
"Jeff Cunningham, who has not been a fan favorite early, finds his way in alone—off another nice ball from Robert, it should be noted—and suddenly, unexpectedly, unbelievably the Reds are poised to win." Toronto fan and SBI correspondent Duane G. Rollins
Link
So who's right? I think they both probably are. Players who are "past it" in England aren't necessarily past it in slower-paced leagues, like MLS. This is entirely separate from the question of quality (which is something I'd like to bring up to Frasier). A slow guy with good vision and great passing ability will have a job in MLS long, even after the league's quality has improved, simply because playing in the heat means that everyone is playing more slowly.
So, nothing about Robert impresses me. But then... boom... he creates a goal.
3. Alvaro Pires. This guy is made of lead, from head to toe. Lead feet, lead body, lead brains, lead gut (he could probably stand to drop a few pounds of lead). It's good to see someone with bite on the Galaxy, but he becomes a bit of a blackhole for both friend and foe: he'll disrupt attacks, but for both teams, unfortunately. Plus, he seems to spend an awful lot of time on the ground jawing at officials. He might be a useful MLS player but is so not the player that the Galaxy needs.
During the Toronto game, you just kept on waiting for LA's midfield to show a little dynamism outside of the Big Two. But there was no one making late runs into the box to slot home loose balls. There really weren't enough players making runs in general. It may partly be because Gullit doesn't want his defense-challenged team to commit too many resources forward. As it was, it appeared to be the DonoBecks show against Toronto. Ely Allen, at least, appeared willing to contribute, but he's clearly still learning.
(1) Dominic Oduro. When he entered late in the Houston-FC Dallas match, I remember thinking "man, this guy is great. Look at that speed. Houston's clearly got no answer for that. Wow... look at this run. Great run. Now all he's got to do is pass the ball to the left and the on-rushing attacker will definitely socre. Yeah. Great run. Now just pass the ball. Just. Pass. The. Ball. Ugh."
Oduro's selfishness almost certainly cost FCD three points there.
He sat on the bench next week against New York.
(2) Laurent Robert. You know, for being a guy who was "playing" in the Premiership months ago, I really haven't noticed him much in the two games I've watched. That is, until he creates a chance out of nothing, like he did with a strange-looking dipping service against DC United, or as he did a couple of times against the Galaxy. What's the story with him? I think it's funny that opinions diverge quite a bit. See this sample:
"Laurent Robert, one of Toronto FC's recent acquisitions, looks past it. Many of his crosses sailed harmlessly out of bounds (ala Landon Donovan at the 2006 World Cup). Even worse, he’s either not fit or not trying."
--Grahame Frasier, MLS Outsider
Link
"Lauren Robert's free kick finds the rookie Jarrod Smith's head."
"Jeff Cunningham, who has not been a fan favorite early, finds his way in alone—off another nice ball from Robert, it should be noted—and suddenly, unexpectedly, unbelievably the Reds are poised to win." Toronto fan and SBI correspondent Duane G. Rollins
Link
So who's right? I think they both probably are. Players who are "past it" in England aren't necessarily past it in slower-paced leagues, like MLS. This is entirely separate from the question of quality (which is something I'd like to bring up to Frasier). A slow guy with good vision and great passing ability will have a job in MLS long, even after the league's quality has improved, simply because playing in the heat means that everyone is playing more slowly.
So, nothing about Robert impresses me. But then... boom... he creates a goal.
3. Alvaro Pires. This guy is made of lead, from head to toe. Lead feet, lead body, lead brains, lead gut (he could probably stand to drop a few pounds of lead). It's good to see someone with bite on the Galaxy, but he becomes a bit of a blackhole for both friend and foe: he'll disrupt attacks, but for both teams, unfortunately. Plus, he seems to spend an awful lot of time on the ground jawing at officials. He might be a useful MLS player but is so not the player that the Galaxy needs.
During the Toronto game, you just kept on waiting for LA's midfield to show a little dynamism outside of the Big Two. But there was no one making late runs into the box to slot home loose balls. There really weren't enough players making runs in general. It may partly be because Gullit doesn't want his defense-challenged team to commit too many resources forward. As it was, it appeared to be the DonoBecks show against Toronto. Ely Allen, at least, appeared willing to contribute, but he's clearly still learning.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
The Road to MLS Cup XIII, Week Three
(1)Whose League Is It Anyway?
So the Revs crush champions Houston 3-0 in their first game, setting themselves up as the league's best. But they have some injury issues, give up an early goal and red card in Chicago and lose to the Fire 4-0. Pretty bad, right? But the Revs stuck with that game as much as they could and then they have to travel to Kansas City's odd little ballpark, which looks like it's going to be a real fortress because the Wizards had won their first two there. And what do the Revs do? They beat KC 3-1 with goals from their teenage attacking substitutes, Nyassi and Mansally. So now, you've got to be thinking: wow, the Revs are for real and coach Steve Nichol's a genius.
So what did Saturday have for us? Steve Nichol is out-coached by Fernando Clavijo, who no one thinks is a genius, and the Revs lose 1-0 at home to the Rapids. Nyassi and Mansally are contained when Colorado clogs the midfield, and the Revs waste a ton of chances, making you wonder just how quickly Taylor Twellman can get healthy. So, it's not the Revs' league.
KC? Ives Galarcep thinks they might just be the best team in the league, but the loss to the Revs makes me think twice.
DC? After a 4-1 victory over Toronto FC, I was ready to forgive their week one loss to the Wizards. But then they get crushed-- 4-0-- by Real Salt Lake. It's not their league either.
Chivas USA? I think they've got the pieces to be the best, but those pieces are unfortunately injury-prone or older than the spoken word.
Dallas deserves some love: a pair of ties against good teams and a win over New York. Kenny Cooper is one fire. This backline-- Drew Moor, Duilio Davino, Adrian Serioux, Dax McCarty-- ought to be pretty good in MLS. Juan Toja is threatening to be the best player in the league. But then you think about how they were bossed around the field by Houston. You think about how disjointed the defense looked.
And Chicago? Along with Dallas, the other unbeaten team, but man, they looked awful against a supposedly toothless San Jose team. And they looked awful against Real Salt Lake, despite earning a point. And they looked about as bad as you can look when you win 4-0 against a 10 man New England.
So whose league is it? For now, I'm going with (1) Dallas, (2) Kansas City and (3) Chivas USA, but every team has a lot of question marks right now.
(2) The Weekend's Most Shocking Result?
There are a few strong contenders.
(A) Chad Barrett scores again. The graphics people on Fox Soccer Channel didn't believe it either: their graphic indicated that it was his first of the season.
(B) Real Salt Lake beating DC United 4-0. I mean, seriously? 4-0? When does Real ever beat anyone, let alone Supporters Shield winner DC, by four goals? (for what it's worth, the answer turns out to be: never-- the 4-0 victory was RSL's largest margin ever).
(C) Tony Caig kept a clean sheet. I didn't see the Houston-KC game, but I honestly wasn't expecting Caig to get another start after giving up 3 goals in his two previous games, with a solid majority being his fault. Then I looked to see who Houston's backup GK was. A kid named Corbin Waller. Here's an excerpt from his biogarphy on Yahoo Sports:
" "
That's right. THere's nothing on him. But you know what? I'd rather put Corbin Waller out there, with his empty bio, than Tony Caig with his stint in the premiership.
But Tony Caig got his clean sheet, so maybe there's a reason Dom Kinnear is a coach and I work in a cubicle.
3. Most embarassing performances?
If DC fans had recovered enough after drinking grain alchohol chased with vodka to help them forget their loss to Real Salt Lake, they had to be chuckling to themselves watching the LA Galaxy game, where Greg Vanney falls down instead of bodying up to Danny Dichio and allowing a goal, and then repeating the same trick half a game later to give up the game winning goal to Jeff Cunningham.
But United fans still shouldn't laugh too hard: I think we found out a little bit more about the pieces of United's reconstructed backline. Gonzalo "I'm not Peralta" Martinez has got range, some pace, helps distribute the ball cleanly out of the back and generally cleans up messes. Unforutnately, he wasn't playing Saturday night. Gonzalo "I'm not Martinez" Peralta was, and he had a disasterous night, before finally gifting the fourth goal to Real Salt Lake when heading the ball back to DC's keeper. It could have just been an off game for Peralta-- RSL's turf apparently is not easy to play on. But I'm beginning to feel like, if United is to have success this year, it will depend greatly on Martinez staying healthy and on the field.
I had to feel bad for Chivas USA's Eric Ebert, who did his best Greg Vanney impersonation by gifting Columbus with two goals after entering the match in the 64th minute. My guess is that the rookie doesn't start next week.
4. San Jose-Chicago
Here's the thing about the Quakes: they do have guys who can pass. Ronnie O'Briem followed up a completely anonymous performance against DC with a solid, unpredictable (in a good way) showing against Chicago. Ned Grabavoy may be the league's less-heralded #10, but I bet you he puts together a decent season. You might think Ramiro Corrales is garbage because you last remember him at the US national team level, but he's pretty good at the MLS level.
So how did San Jose lose?
Kei Kamara and Gavin Glinton seem to have developed a great, consistent partnership. The problem is that, while Kamara consistently whipped balls in, Glinton consistently missed the shot. San Jose put Chicago under tremendous pressure and really ought to have tied. But in the clutch, slow-motion moment when a ball is floating up invitingly, who is the Earthquake player to strike the ball from just feet in front of the Chicago goal?
Enter young Shea Salinas, who manages to shoot the ball at an approximately 89 degree angle so that it goes out harmlessly. Tough moment for a rookie, but ideally San Jose would have a late game finisher to handle stuff like that. They just don't, and it's really going to hurt this otherwise carefully constructed team.
5. LA-Toronto
This was the kind of game that gives equal amounts of fuel to Donovan haters and lovers. He and David Beckham have developed good rapport and Donovan's one of the few MLS players with the speed and intelligence to take advantage of some of Beckham's passes. Time and time again, Donovan went racing off with the ball, with three or four Toronto defenders trailing after him like tin cans on a Just Married car. Donovan fails each time. Now, these aren't necessarily easy chances-- he's running top speed with the ball with defenders closing in. But then Donovan, with a look of determination on his face, takes the ball, does a step over, leaves his defender stumbling like an outtake from NBA Ankle Breakers and shoots a hard, clean shot from distance. Goal.
But, as his teammates mob him, Donovan doesn't celebrate-- instead, he's got a furrowed brow. It's like he knows that he should have had 3 or 4 goals by that point so he needed to decide to play up to his potential for a brief moment in time to make up for it.
My take? The guy's by far the best American player. If he chokes a few chances here and there, keep in mind that other guys wouldn't have had the skill to even have those chances to choke. I'd pick him first on my sandlot team anytime.
But what about the rest of his team? I am no fan of Ruud Gullitt, but I liked how the Galaxy midfield defended as a unit, adjusting their positions to clog passing lanes. LA is a hard-working team, even on a day when temperatures on the field were above 100 degrees. But I'm not sure they're up to it. Beckham seems like a luxury. The rookies (and there were three of them starting) seem earnest, but they're not able to take advantage of the players created by Donovan and the Englishman. Galaxy forward Alan Gordon just isn't getting it done.
And so the Galaxy, despite creating so much more than their Canadian rivals, fall 3-2 at home. It doesn't seem fair. And yet... when David Beckham ends up being your last man on defense against Jeff Cunningham, one of the leagues speediest and deadliest forwards, something's wrong with the team. Cunningham didn't score that time, but what does it say about the Galaxy's defense that it happened at all? Of course, given Greg Vanney's performance, you wonder if the years he spent in France hadn't rubbed off on in, such was his insistence on surrender to the foreigners.
So the Revs crush champions Houston 3-0 in their first game, setting themselves up as the league's best. But they have some injury issues, give up an early goal and red card in Chicago and lose to the Fire 4-0. Pretty bad, right? But the Revs stuck with that game as much as they could and then they have to travel to Kansas City's odd little ballpark, which looks like it's going to be a real fortress because the Wizards had won their first two there. And what do the Revs do? They beat KC 3-1 with goals from their teenage attacking substitutes, Nyassi and Mansally. So now, you've got to be thinking: wow, the Revs are for real and coach Steve Nichol's a genius.
So what did Saturday have for us? Steve Nichol is out-coached by Fernando Clavijo, who no one thinks is a genius, and the Revs lose 1-0 at home to the Rapids. Nyassi and Mansally are contained when Colorado clogs the midfield, and the Revs waste a ton of chances, making you wonder just how quickly Taylor Twellman can get healthy. So, it's not the Revs' league.
KC? Ives Galarcep thinks they might just be the best team in the league, but the loss to the Revs makes me think twice.
DC? After a 4-1 victory over Toronto FC, I was ready to forgive their week one loss to the Wizards. But then they get crushed-- 4-0-- by Real Salt Lake. It's not their league either.
Chivas USA? I think they've got the pieces to be the best, but those pieces are unfortunately injury-prone or older than the spoken word.
Dallas deserves some love: a pair of ties against good teams and a win over New York. Kenny Cooper is one fire. This backline-- Drew Moor, Duilio Davino, Adrian Serioux, Dax McCarty-- ought to be pretty good in MLS. Juan Toja is threatening to be the best player in the league. But then you think about how they were bossed around the field by Houston. You think about how disjointed the defense looked.
And Chicago? Along with Dallas, the other unbeaten team, but man, they looked awful against a supposedly toothless San Jose team. And they looked awful against Real Salt Lake, despite earning a point. And they looked about as bad as you can look when you win 4-0 against a 10 man New England.
So whose league is it? For now, I'm going with (1) Dallas, (2) Kansas City and (3) Chivas USA, but every team has a lot of question marks right now.
(2) The Weekend's Most Shocking Result?
There are a few strong contenders.
(A) Chad Barrett scores again. The graphics people on Fox Soccer Channel didn't believe it either: their graphic indicated that it was his first of the season.
(B) Real Salt Lake beating DC United 4-0. I mean, seriously? 4-0? When does Real ever beat anyone, let alone Supporters Shield winner DC, by four goals? (for what it's worth, the answer turns out to be: never-- the 4-0 victory was RSL's largest margin ever).
(C) Tony Caig kept a clean sheet. I didn't see the Houston-KC game, but I honestly wasn't expecting Caig to get another start after giving up 3 goals in his two previous games, with a solid majority being his fault. Then I looked to see who Houston's backup GK was. A kid named Corbin Waller. Here's an excerpt from his biogarphy on Yahoo Sports:
" "
That's right. THere's nothing on him. But you know what? I'd rather put Corbin Waller out there, with his empty bio, than Tony Caig with his stint in the premiership.
But Tony Caig got his clean sheet, so maybe there's a reason Dom Kinnear is a coach and I work in a cubicle.
3. Most embarassing performances?
If DC fans had recovered enough after drinking grain alchohol chased with vodka to help them forget their loss to Real Salt Lake, they had to be chuckling to themselves watching the LA Galaxy game, where Greg Vanney falls down instead of bodying up to Danny Dichio and allowing a goal, and then repeating the same trick half a game later to give up the game winning goal to Jeff Cunningham.
But United fans still shouldn't laugh too hard: I think we found out a little bit more about the pieces of United's reconstructed backline. Gonzalo "I'm not Peralta" Martinez has got range, some pace, helps distribute the ball cleanly out of the back and generally cleans up messes. Unforutnately, he wasn't playing Saturday night. Gonzalo "I'm not Martinez" Peralta was, and he had a disasterous night, before finally gifting the fourth goal to Real Salt Lake when heading the ball back to DC's keeper. It could have just been an off game for Peralta-- RSL's turf apparently is not easy to play on. But I'm beginning to feel like, if United is to have success this year, it will depend greatly on Martinez staying healthy and on the field.
I had to feel bad for Chivas USA's Eric Ebert, who did his best Greg Vanney impersonation by gifting Columbus with two goals after entering the match in the 64th minute. My guess is that the rookie doesn't start next week.
4. San Jose-Chicago
Here's the thing about the Quakes: they do have guys who can pass. Ronnie O'Briem followed up a completely anonymous performance against DC with a solid, unpredictable (in a good way) showing against Chicago. Ned Grabavoy may be the league's less-heralded #10, but I bet you he puts together a decent season. You might think Ramiro Corrales is garbage because you last remember him at the US national team level, but he's pretty good at the MLS level.
So how did San Jose lose?
Kei Kamara and Gavin Glinton seem to have developed a great, consistent partnership. The problem is that, while Kamara consistently whipped balls in, Glinton consistently missed the shot. San Jose put Chicago under tremendous pressure and really ought to have tied. But in the clutch, slow-motion moment when a ball is floating up invitingly, who is the Earthquake player to strike the ball from just feet in front of the Chicago goal?
Enter young Shea Salinas, who manages to shoot the ball at an approximately 89 degree angle so that it goes out harmlessly. Tough moment for a rookie, but ideally San Jose would have a late game finisher to handle stuff like that. They just don't, and it's really going to hurt this otherwise carefully constructed team.
5. LA-Toronto
This was the kind of game that gives equal amounts of fuel to Donovan haters and lovers. He and David Beckham have developed good rapport and Donovan's one of the few MLS players with the speed and intelligence to take advantage of some of Beckham's passes. Time and time again, Donovan went racing off with the ball, with three or four Toronto defenders trailing after him like tin cans on a Just Married car. Donovan fails each time. Now, these aren't necessarily easy chances-- he's running top speed with the ball with defenders closing in. But then Donovan, with a look of determination on his face, takes the ball, does a step over, leaves his defender stumbling like an outtake from NBA Ankle Breakers and shoots a hard, clean shot from distance. Goal.
But, as his teammates mob him, Donovan doesn't celebrate-- instead, he's got a furrowed brow. It's like he knows that he should have had 3 or 4 goals by that point so he needed to decide to play up to his potential for a brief moment in time to make up for it.
My take? The guy's by far the best American player. If he chokes a few chances here and there, keep in mind that other guys wouldn't have had the skill to even have those chances to choke. I'd pick him first on my sandlot team anytime.
But what about the rest of his team? I am no fan of Ruud Gullitt, but I liked how the Galaxy midfield defended as a unit, adjusting their positions to clog passing lanes. LA is a hard-working team, even on a day when temperatures on the field were above 100 degrees. But I'm not sure they're up to it. Beckham seems like a luxury. The rookies (and there were three of them starting) seem earnest, but they're not able to take advantage of the players created by Donovan and the Englishman. Galaxy forward Alan Gordon just isn't getting it done.
And so the Galaxy, despite creating so much more than their Canadian rivals, fall 3-2 at home. It doesn't seem fair. And yet... when David Beckham ends up being your last man on defense against Jeff Cunningham, one of the leagues speediest and deadliest forwards, something's wrong with the team. Cunningham didn't score that time, but what does it say about the Galaxy's defense that it happened at all? Of course, given Greg Vanney's performance, you wonder if the years he spent in France hadn't rubbed off on in, such was his insistence on surrender to the foreigners.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Does MLS know what it's doing with money?
The answer, according to Andrew Hush, is "no".
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524551&root=mls&cc=5901
He notes a few of the most ridiculous salaries (e.g. Nik Besagno's salary) and notes "Is it possible to reliably put such varying price tags on unproven players? According to the figures, plus what we have seen with our own eyes, no."
Well Andrew, I think the answer actually depends on what you mean by "reliable". His belief seems to be that MLS overpays based on "potential" (e.g. Project 40/Gen Addidas players) but that "the question of how much money an individual can make from a career in the league is pretty much answered as soon as he puts pen to paper on his first contract." So, the league isn't rewarding those who prove how well they play on the field.
I think Hush is a little guilty of arguing by anecdote, selecting some of the worst offenders (and he's done yeoman's work in sorting through those). So, I decided to look at Nik Besagno's draft and see if, in fact, MLS got it completely wrong in determining what to pay its players.
In the 2005 draft, there were 17 players that were put on developmental roster spots, earning a salary of $16,500 or less. They've had MLS careers of 1307 minutes, each. However, 11 of them (65%) are no longer in the league. The 6 who remain earn an average of $44,000 (only one is still a developmental player-- Amir Lowery).
There were 22 senior roster players out of the 2005 draft who played in 2005 (Tony Lochhead of New England would eventually play in 2006). They've had MLS careers averaging 2803 minutes. 9 (41%) are no longer in the league. Those that remain in the league have an average salary of $88,000.
We can break down the senior roster players into two categories: "high" salary (i.e. more than $40,000) and "medium salary (i.e. between $33,000 and $40,000) players. There were 9 high salary players, who have gone on to have careers averaging 3,111 minutes. 2 (22%) are no longer in the league. In contrast, the 13 medium salary players averaged 2590 minutes and 6 (46%) no longer ply their trade in MLS.
At first glance, it appears that MLS was, in fact, wise to pay the developmental players little and the senior roster players more. What's striking is that, even among the senior roster players, you've still got a very high rate of failure: MLS teams pick guys that don't stick in the league over 40% of the time. This could be impacted by guys that decide to play overseas (Will John, for example), but that's not a huge factor.
So, when Hush asks if there's a reliable way to put price tags on paper, I again go back to the question: what do you mean by reliable, especially when even the "good" players fail 40% of the time? Talent identification is a tough game, but it looks like, overall, the salaries paid do recognize who contributes on the field. Of course, that leaves completely open the question of whether MLS couldn't be doing a better job here.
But what about Hush's assertion that players' salaries are essentially set for life when they sign their first contract?
I'd consider 3000 minutes to be a pretty decent career for a fourth year MLS player, so I looked at each group of players to see if the 2005 developmental players who went on to log 3000 or more minutes were making substantially less in 2008 than their 2005 senior roster counterparts. Here's what I found:
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $92,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $110,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $65,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $55,000.
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Played 3000 Minutes: $74,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $29,000.
A couple of things stick out: the 2005 high earners who have stuck around MLS but not had great careers are doing well-- this is largely the effect of Besagno and Kirk. But the other effect at work is that Besagno and Kirk are clearly still in the first contracts. To know if Hush is really right, we'd probably need to look at a few more years-- AND see what happens with Kirk and Besagno after their deals end this year. You want to tell them not to get too used to high life...
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524551&root=mls&cc=5901
He notes a few of the most ridiculous salaries (e.g. Nik Besagno's salary) and notes "Is it possible to reliably put such varying price tags on unproven players? According to the figures, plus what we have seen with our own eyes, no."
Well Andrew, I think the answer actually depends on what you mean by "reliable". His belief seems to be that MLS overpays based on "potential" (e.g. Project 40/Gen Addidas players) but that "the question of how much money an individual can make from a career in the league is pretty much answered as soon as he puts pen to paper on his first contract." So, the league isn't rewarding those who prove how well they play on the field.
I think Hush is a little guilty of arguing by anecdote, selecting some of the worst offenders (and he's done yeoman's work in sorting through those). So, I decided to look at Nik Besagno's draft and see if, in fact, MLS got it completely wrong in determining what to pay its players.
In the 2005 draft, there were 17 players that were put on developmental roster spots, earning a salary of $16,500 or less. They've had MLS careers of 1307 minutes, each. However, 11 of them (65%) are no longer in the league. The 6 who remain earn an average of $44,000 (only one is still a developmental player-- Amir Lowery).
There were 22 senior roster players out of the 2005 draft who played in 2005 (Tony Lochhead of New England would eventually play in 2006). They've had MLS careers averaging 2803 minutes. 9 (41%) are no longer in the league. Those that remain in the league have an average salary of $88,000.
We can break down the senior roster players into two categories: "high" salary (i.e. more than $40,000) and "medium salary (i.e. between $33,000 and $40,000) players. There were 9 high salary players, who have gone on to have careers averaging 3,111 minutes. 2 (22%) are no longer in the league. In contrast, the 13 medium salary players averaged 2590 minutes and 6 (46%) no longer ply their trade in MLS.
At first glance, it appears that MLS was, in fact, wise to pay the developmental players little and the senior roster players more. What's striking is that, even among the senior roster players, you've still got a very high rate of failure: MLS teams pick guys that don't stick in the league over 40% of the time. This could be impacted by guys that decide to play overseas (Will John, for example), but that's not a huge factor.
So, when Hush asks if there's a reliable way to put price tags on paper, I again go back to the question: what do you mean by reliable, especially when even the "good" players fail 40% of the time? Talent identification is a tough game, but it looks like, overall, the salaries paid do recognize who contributes on the field. Of course, that leaves completely open the question of whether MLS couldn't be doing a better job here.
But what about Hush's assertion that players' salaries are essentially set for life when they sign their first contract?
I'd consider 3000 minutes to be a pretty decent career for a fourth year MLS player, so I looked at each group of players to see if the 2005 developmental players who went on to log 3000 or more minutes were making substantially less in 2008 than their 2005 senior roster counterparts. Here's what I found:
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $92,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 High Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $110,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Played 3000 Minutes: $65,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Medium Earner who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $55,000.
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Played 3000 Minutes: $74,000
Average 2008 Salary of 2005 Developmental Player who Did Not Play 3000 Minutes: $29,000.
A couple of things stick out: the 2005 high earners who have stuck around MLS but not had great careers are doing well-- this is largely the effect of Besagno and Kirk. But the other effect at work is that Besagno and Kirk are clearly still in the first contracts. To know if Hush is really right, we'd probably need to look at a few more years-- AND see what happens with Kirk and Besagno after their deals end this year. You want to tell them not to get too used to high life...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
CONCACAF Champions Cup Failure-- Is It the Salary Cap?
Jeff Carlisle has a few ideas about how to make MLS sides more competitive in the CONCACAF Champions Cup after yet another semi-final failure.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524521&root=mls&cc=5901
He notes that the salary cap puts MLS teams at a disadvantage. Well, that's definitely true with the Mexican clubs. But what about Saprissa? I imagine they've got a good salary budget but also that it's not ridiculously out of line with MLS. But MLS teams still haven't done well against Costa Rican squads.
If we can afford better players, why aren't we doing better? Costa Rican squads even pull off upsets of Mexican teams, something that MLS teams have only done once since the current home and away format was implemented in the 2002 tournament. In fact, the Costa Rican teams have done SIX times in that same time period.
So what's up? I can think of a few reasons:
(1) MLS players aren't used to the refs. Latin American refs aren't as likely to let the same challenges go as MLS refs do. You can also make the argument that CONCACAF refs simply suck, but frankly that's another question. MLS defenders need to be aware that the games will be called tightly and that home teams will generally get good calls. And... they need to adjust their games accordingly.
(2) MLS players aren't used to the playing style. I remember DC United going down to Mexico City in 2005 with a fairly good squad. They got their rears handed to them 5-0. The much-maligned David Stokes had clearly never seen anything like it. And Mike Petke, who might have, still got himself sent off. This is one of those things that I expected would be better with DC United this year. They've got guys who have played in Libertadores. They've got a healthy South American contingent. And, to their credit, I thought it looked like they knew what they were doing down at Pachuca. But it still wasn't quite enough.
(3) MLS players aren't used to the environment. Playing at Pachuca is hard. Playing at Saprissa is hard. Even Toronto's BMO Field isn't going to compare to the hostility of the crowds. But again, I thought MLS was moving in the right direction by getting more players who are accustomed to these environments. There's just one problem...
(4) Fitness does matter. Last summer's Superliga games between MLS and Mexican opposition may have been glorified friendlies, but they didn't feel that way. If you can draw anything from them, it's that fitness does matter. At this point, some idiot usually says "That's just an excuse." No, it's called an explanation and if you don't understand the different intentions behind excuses and explanations, nothing written in a blog is going to help you.
So, I do wonder if MLS teams wouldn't have better results if they were fit. For that reason, I think Carlisle's suggestion that MLS give CCC teams a few more bye weeks a little self-defeating. The teams would probably prefer not to play on Sunday and then have to fly to Costa Rica, but the fact is that they need more games ahead of the Cup matches-- not fewer. But yes, MLS might want to try to schedule a bit more with Cup ties in mind...
(5) Dollars go further in Central America. I read somewhere that the top salaries in Costa Rica were around $15,000 a month. There are tons of MLS players who make more than that. But if that's the case, then why aren't our guys better than their guys? There's no doubt that if pure dollar amounts were the only thing that mattered, a lot more of the Costa Rican (and dare I say Mexican) stars would be here. But I'm willing to bet than $225,000 goes a lot further in San Jose (Costa Rica) than it does in San Jose (California). As much as the American dream may be attractive to soccer players, living like a prince in your home country also has to be worth something. Macroeconomic factors do have an effect on how attractive players are (as the recent exodus of American players illustrates-- nothing like a cheap dollar to make Nate Jacqua a hot transfer target....)
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=524521&root=mls&cc=5901
He notes that the salary cap puts MLS teams at a disadvantage. Well, that's definitely true with the Mexican clubs. But what about Saprissa? I imagine they've got a good salary budget but also that it's not ridiculously out of line with MLS. But MLS teams still haven't done well against Costa Rican squads.
If we can afford better players, why aren't we doing better? Costa Rican squads even pull off upsets of Mexican teams, something that MLS teams have only done once since the current home and away format was implemented in the 2002 tournament. In fact, the Costa Rican teams have done SIX times in that same time period.
So what's up? I can think of a few reasons:
(1) MLS players aren't used to the refs. Latin American refs aren't as likely to let the same challenges go as MLS refs do. You can also make the argument that CONCACAF refs simply suck, but frankly that's another question. MLS defenders need to be aware that the games will be called tightly and that home teams will generally get good calls. And... they need to adjust their games accordingly.
(2) MLS players aren't used to the playing style. I remember DC United going down to Mexico City in 2005 with a fairly good squad. They got their rears handed to them 5-0. The much-maligned David Stokes had clearly never seen anything like it. And Mike Petke, who might have, still got himself sent off. This is one of those things that I expected would be better with DC United this year. They've got guys who have played in Libertadores. They've got a healthy South American contingent. And, to their credit, I thought it looked like they knew what they were doing down at Pachuca. But it still wasn't quite enough.
(3) MLS players aren't used to the environment. Playing at Pachuca is hard. Playing at Saprissa is hard. Even Toronto's BMO Field isn't going to compare to the hostility of the crowds. But again, I thought MLS was moving in the right direction by getting more players who are accustomed to these environments. There's just one problem...
(4) Fitness does matter. Last summer's Superliga games between MLS and Mexican opposition may have been glorified friendlies, but they didn't feel that way. If you can draw anything from them, it's that fitness does matter. At this point, some idiot usually says "That's just an excuse." No, it's called an explanation and if you don't understand the different intentions behind excuses and explanations, nothing written in a blog is going to help you.
So, I do wonder if MLS teams wouldn't have better results if they were fit. For that reason, I think Carlisle's suggestion that MLS give CCC teams a few more bye weeks a little self-defeating. The teams would probably prefer not to play on Sunday and then have to fly to Costa Rica, but the fact is that they need more games ahead of the Cup matches-- not fewer. But yes, MLS might want to try to schedule a bit more with Cup ties in mind...
(5) Dollars go further in Central America. I read somewhere that the top salaries in Costa Rica were around $15,000 a month. There are tons of MLS players who make more than that. But if that's the case, then why aren't our guys better than their guys? There's no doubt that if pure dollar amounts were the only thing that mattered, a lot more of the Costa Rican (and dare I say Mexican) stars would be here. But I'm willing to bet than $225,000 goes a lot further in San Jose (Costa Rica) than it does in San Jose (California). As much as the American dream may be attractive to soccer players, living like a prince in your home country also has to be worth something. Macroeconomic factors do have an effect on how attractive players are (as the recent exodus of American players illustrates-- nothing like a cheap dollar to make Nate Jacqua a hot transfer target....)
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