MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 6

Wow.

For a week that I thought would shake up the league, there are still more questions. We're now 1/5 of the way done with the season, but it's hard to pick out clear trends. The league has to be ecstatic that Beckham scored two goals in Salt Lake, but it's been a tougher road for other key players. On to the rankings...

1. Chicago (Last week: #5; beat #1 Revs away)

Winning 3-0 away is hard enough. Winning 3-0 away against a good team that you beat 4-0, partly on the back of a very early red card, takes it to another level. Chicago went to the Revs and had a game plan-- defend in numbers and play hard counter-attacking soccer. Having Chris Rolfe back on the field helped, and Blanco, although he didn't score or assist, has got to be one of the best players for counter-attacks because of his vision.

But is the Fire the best team in the league? Some of the things that make them a good team on the counter can make them look pretty awful when they have to control possession, and they are fortunate to have the points they do. But if John Thorington is back for good, Rolfe is healthy and old man Blanco stays on the field, the Fire have got to be looking at their rivals and asking "Why not us?"

2. Columbus (Last week: #6; beat #8 KC at home)

The Crew top the league tables. They won the battle of the sleeper teams against KC fairly comfortably. Robbie Rogers looks like he's fulfilling his promise. And Alejandro Moreno is on the goal leaderboard.

So why aren't the Crew #1? Partly, it's because they've amassed their record against teams in precisely the right moment. It looked like a brutal schedule ahead of the season, with early season tilts against Houston, DC and Chivas. But all three of those teams have yet to get going. Their win against Toronto occurred before the Reds added a couple of studs to the roster. I have a feeling that they are paper tigers.

But there's another side to winning against teams in difficult moments: up to a point, it just doesn't matter as long as you get the points. The 2000 KC Wizards weren't necessarily the best team in the league despite a record winning streak, but they were winners and eventually champions. I could see the Crew doing something similar.

3. FC Dallas (Last week: #2; tied #13 San Jose away)

I expect better from Dallas than an away tie against an expansion team. But it wasn't just a case of balls not falling-- Dallas just didn't get going, despite having a high-powered offense. So we'll call it an off week. Besides, who's clearly better?

4. New England Revolution (Last week: #1; lost to #5 Fire at home)

New England was miserable, apparently more motivated by revenge than soccer sense.

But Twellman is back soon, Ralston played as a sub and the Revs aren't a bad team.

5. Houston (Last week: #4; tied #9 Chivas at home)

Good teams win at home. Houston again dictated terms in its home match against Chivas, but couldn't find its way to goal. They need to do better, but I'm not going to rank them lower until they start playing really poorly.

The risk is that, just as the 2000 KC Wizards turned winning into a habit just by playing uninspiring but absolutely consistent soccer, Houston can turn losing into a habit, despite having the horses to ride so much harder.

6. Toronto (Last week: #7; tied #11 New York)
Now that Toronto's playing with the big boys, it's not enough to put in a decent effort. And they were fortunate Laurent Robert caught the NY D napping. I am wondering why Jeff Cunningham isn't getting more chances. Dichio is useful, but if Cunningham still has it, he's far superior.

7. DC United (Last week: #3; lost to #12 Colorado)
DC hasn't won in Colorado in 8 years, but I though they were superior enough to Colorado to pull it out. But United was not up to the task. They were lucky to go down only by two goals. That said, I wouldn't penalize a team too much for an away loss, especially in such a tough place to play.

So United's not dropping four places because of the loss. They're dropping three places because of this:
Ben Olsen Is Not Coming Back Soon.

United is famous for its great foreign players, like Etch, Moreno, Gomez, Emilio and now Gallardo. But much of their recent success has come from more humble names: Gros, Carroll, Namoff and most of all Ben Olsen. These guys provided bite and energy. Only Namoff remains. The replacements for these players may, in fact, be superior players, but there is no replacement for their work rate.

But the loss of Olsen is the hardest hit. United simply is not as good a team without him.

8. Colorado (Last week: #12; beat #3 United at home)
Colorado absolutely dominated DC. Yes, they did give up more than a few chances, but they also could have scored more. LaBrocca, Cummings and Jacobsen created more than the United defense could handle. When Jacobsen finally scored his wonder goal, you couldn't call yourself surprised.

9. Chivas USA (Last week: #9; tied #4 Houston away)
Yes, they got a point away. But yes, they got dominated and their shambolic defense will lose Claudio Suarez to a red card suspension. This might be what you can expect from the Goats this year.

10. New York (Last week: #11; tied #7 Toronto away)
A few thoughts: the team looked better with Reyna than Ubiparovich in the middle... Dane Richards' speed also changed the game (for the better). Angel and Altidore were relatively quiet. I think NY has weapons, but they're just not an inspiring team at this point.

11. Kansas City (Last week: #8; lost to #6 Columbus away)
The pieces aren't there for this team to take advantage of Lopez.

12. LA Galaxy (Last week: #10; ties #14 Real Salt Lake away)
It took the Gals a half to figure out Salt Lake's turf, and then Beckham scores twice. Don Garber rejoices.

They probably don't deserve to drop two places, but are they better than any of the teams above them?

13. San Jose (Last week: #13; ties #2 Dallas at home)
Ronnie O'Brien and Ivan Guerrero are actually good players. Who knew? Judging by some reports, it's breaking news.

San Jose is capable of controlling play. The forwards still aren't good enough. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14; ties #10 Galaxy at home)
The optimist says "Hey RSL got a point!" The pessimist notes that they were up by two goals. Despite all the talk about their improvement, does anyone really think they'll make the playoffs?

In other news, Javier Morales has 4 assists already. Is he the secret hero for the Gulls?

Next week
DCU-CHI: Tie
HOU-COL: Houston win
RSL-DAL: Dallas win
SJ-CLB: Cbus win
LA-NY: LA win
Chivas-NE: Chivas win

MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 5

This week's rankings also serve as a soapbox about the foolishness of "results-ism". The Galaxy crushed the Goats this weekend 5-2 in the Superclasico. But yet, here they are, ranked a place below Chivas USA in the rankings. You don't get ranked higher than another team just by beating them, especially in front of your home fans.

That said, there's a new #1...

#1. New England. (Last week: #2, beat #1 FCD)

Winning 1-0 away is exactly the kind of result that Revs coach Steve Nichol built his career on. It's easy to forget that, before the Revs became an offensive powerhouse, they were a brutally ugly but efficient team.

#2. Dallas. (Last week: #1, lost to #2 Revs)

Last week, Dallas was in first by default. This week, they're in second because they couldn't extend their unbeaten run against New England. They had their chances against the Revs, but got punished by a cohesive, efficient team.

#3. DC United. (Last week: #5, beat #14 RSL)


The crushing win against league lapdogs Real Salt Lake was expected, so they barely deserve this ranking. Their first half against RSL was bad. Emilio still hasn't gotten back on track. And Fred, perhaps United's brightest player this season, went out with injury. But who would you pick over them in a cage match? And how about Gallardo's goal?

#4. Houston Dynamo (Last week: #2, lost to #8 Crew).


I might just cut and paste the following: "Houston looked good at times and will certainly get back on track at some point."

That said, Pat Onstad made a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes in goal. Reports of his demise have been, not only exagerated, but premature by years, but this team is only a couple of backup Tony Caig horror shows from digging itself into a very deep hole.

#5. Chicago Fire. (Last week: #6, beat #10 Colorado).


Well, the Fire should beat the Rapids in Chicago, so this isn't a game that will answer many questions about them (plus, I couldn't watch the game on HDNet...) But isn't it nice to see John Thorrington score a brace?

#6. Columbus. (Last week: #8, beat #3 Houston).
Is Alejandro Moreno ready for a career year? I'm still not sold on the Crew, but I've always thought that all they needed was a little more seasoning. Maybe they're there.

#7 Toronto. (Last week: #9, beat #4 KC).
Last week I said, "At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players." Amado Guevara puts on a great show and wins the game for the Reds.

The bad news? The fact that Guevara is on fire now can only mean one thing: he'll go nuts in a few weeks.

The other bad news? Just because Rohan Ricketts spent time in the premiership doesn't mean he got the better of KC's Harrington. I feel like each of Toronto's new signings and key players is like a character in a Greek tragedy, blessed with specific talents that will lead them to great success, but also each stricken with a fatal flaw. Robert can give incredible service, but seems to drift out of games. Ricketts is fast but might need a few tricks, as well as better distribution to be truly effective. Guevara is a star, but he's nuttier than squirrel doo.

#8. Kansas City. (Last week #4, lost to #9 TFC)
I think people need to get used to this: good teams will drop points in Toronto. So, despite the loss by KC, I feel like I got a better sense of who they are. Chance Myers and Michael Harrington did a lot of constructive things. Roger Espinoza needs some work. As commentator Bruce Arena pointed out, KC would play some good D before coughing up the ball needlessly. And the vaunted attack never quite got going.

#9. Chivas USA. (Last week #7, lost to #12 LAG)
The good: the Goats come back twice in 60 minutes. The bad: the Goats go down by three goals in the last 30 minutes, including two strikes from former leper Alan Gordon. Chivas looks like they're still trying to get into the season and injuries haven't helped. But I think they're a playoff team that can count themselves lucky that they don't have to play against an enraged Landon Donovan every week. That has a tendency to make things seem worse than they really are, which is how I'm going to view this past week's result.

#10. LA Galaxy. (Last week: #12, beat #7 CUSA)
Donovan leads the league in goals by a mile. Beckham leads the league in assists. And the Galaxy are a .500 team. Part of that is that the Galaxy are still great at making me smile: Xavier is good for at least one moment of comedy each game. I thought it was instructive that Gullit singled out young defender Sean Franklin for praise after the game. If the Gals are to be anything more than a .500 team, even with Donovan crushing the league, they need more contributions from players like Franklin.

Scary bad question for Gullit: Will the return of Carlos Ruiz help or hurt this team?

Scary good question for the league and its fans: How awesome would it be if the Gals and Chivas USA were fighting it out for the last playoff spot? It's early and midseason acquisitions can completely change teams, but both teams look to be on the fringe right now.

#11. New York. (Last week: #11, beat #13 SJ)
It's good that they managed to win without Angel, but they still look like a team that's missing something.

#12. Colorado. (Last week: #10, lost to #6 Chicago)
I didn't expect the kids to get it done away to Chicago-- that's asking for a lot.

#13. San Jose. (Last week: #13, lost to #11 NY)
They'll be in more games than they're out of. And if Peguero is able to recover the form he had in his first MLS stay, I woudln't be shocked to see the Quakes climb a little in the west.

#14. Real Salt Lake. (Last week: #14, lost to #5 DCU)
After crushing DCU at home, you kind of expected the Gulls to get crushed when they visited the District. And so it was.

Their next game against the Galaxy could be fascinating. If RSL cant' get anything positive out of that, is it too early to think about moves they need to make?

Next week (Last week: 3-4)
The next week looks awesome. We're going to learn alot. The two most enigmatic teams, KC and Cbus, face off. The Revs face a supposedly tough Chicago team.

Thursday
Toronto-NYRB- Toronto win
Revs-Chicago- Revs win
Crew-KC- Crew win
Dynamo-CUSA- Dynamo win
RSL-LAG- RSL win
SJ-FCD- FCD win
Rapids-DCU- DCU win

MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week Four

So, I've always wanted to try this, even though it seems like an impossible task.

It's one of those things that people argue about, mostly because they don't agree on what rankings should mean: do they mean the best team at this moment? Should they rank teams by their potential to reach the highest peak? Or should they reward consistency over the season?

For me, the answer is both. These attempted rankings combine both my assessment of a team's potential (which is why United isn't near the bottom) and their current form (which is why KC and Dallas do well).

To see if these rankings have any predictive power, I'm also going to test them against next week's results. Home teams will be considered favorites to win, unless a team is three spots above them in the rankings. In that case, a draw is predicted, unless the team is a total of six spots above their opponent in the rankings. We'll see...

1. FC Dallas. D looked shakey in the first couple of matches, but they might be settling down. Cooper is in form. That said, Dallas is first by default.

2. New England. I loved how they played in the face of adversity against Chicago and again against New York this past week. But ask yourself why they're always putting themselves into adverse situations?

3. Houston. A point on the road is good. Yes, they are in last place in the West. And I still don't know if Houston will be able to score, but I like the team otherwise. If Houston only has one problem, I expect that it will get fixed by Kinnear.

4. Kansas City. They are here because of results. I haven't watched enough games to get comfortable with the idea that Michael Harrington, Chance Myers, Kurt Morsink, Jack Jewsbury, Roger Espinoza and Tyson Wahl form the no-name backbone of an elite MLS team the same way that Brian Carrol, Brian Namoff and Josh Gros did with DC United. You underrate lesser known guys in MLS at your peril, so I'm not trying to do that here.

5. DC United. Gallardo might be an upgrade over Christian Gomez, but he doesn't give the team precisely what it needs, which is what Gomez did so well. The team also needs Ben Olsen's bite and leadership-- but Benny might not be returning soon. And Jaime Moreno is, indeed, a year older. The reworked defense has been both bad and unlucky. So why is United so high? C'mon. The team constructed to win the Champions Cup ought to be able to show a little professionalism in MLS and start winning games.

6. Chicago. I think they're underachievers. Justin Mapp had a good game yesterday against KC. Blanco was dangerous. Chad Barrett, when he wasn't imitating Shea Salinas, showed that he is useful. Frankowski does little things that MLS forwards don't do. But when you put it all together, they frequently look terrible.

7. Chivas USA. Something seems off in Goatland. Mendoza needs to develop into a true 10. Razov needs to stay healthy. Klejstan needs to stay on the field. Maybe the defeat against Dallas is because none of those things happened. But I'm not sure this year's Chivas is a #1 seed.

8. Columbus. They're 3-1-0, so it's probably harsh to rank them here, but I guess I just don't believe it. Then I look at their roster against DC:

1 - Will Hesmer (GK)
2 - Frankie Hejduk
4 - Gino Padula
5 - Danny O'Rourke
7 - Guillermo Barros Schelotto
10 - Alejandro Moreno
12 - Eddie Gaven 63
14 - Chad Marshall
16 - Brian Carroll
19 - Robbie Rogers 90
22 - Adam Moffat 85

To me, that looks like a good MLS roster, full of potential MLS superstars. That said, the Crew has been full of potential superstars for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked out well.

9. Toronto FC. I might be ranking them too high here, but I'm impressed by Robert's efficiency. Guevara is an MLS superstar. Jeff Cunningham can score goals. Edu is awesome. At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players.

10. Colorado. I know the kids are supposed to be budding superstars, all. Colin Clark, indeed, looks like the real deal, but I haven't watched enough of DiRaimundo and LaBrocca to say for sure. But I do know that young players hit walls and that Colorado's defense includes both Erpen and Burciaga. I think they're heading for a fall.

11. New York. I want to rank them highly. I really do. When Angel returns from injury (permanently), they'll do better. But I think we've seen the league pass this team by. They've got a lot of question marks all over the field (even up top: can Wolyniec still be spark plug off the bench?)

12. LA. They just look like a deeply flawed team. Some of the problems might be easier to fix (surely, somewhere in the world, there's got to be a better forward who will take the $70,000 that Alan Gordon is getting). But there's just too much non-descript talent on this team right now. That said, if any tandem in the league can put a team into the playoffs on pure talent and willpower, it is LD and Beckham.

13. SJ. LA pretty comprehensively handled SJ, but I think the California Derby should be good stuff this year. SJ really took it to Chicago and finally got their deserved points at Colorado. They are dangerous, but probably need a little more seasoning before they'll convert regularly.

14. RSL. Another team I'd like to rank more highly. I like Kreis's team-first philosophy. But outside of Kovalenko and Beckerman, is there anyone on the roster that isn't an enigma?

So, going by these rankings, here are the predictions for the week...

Thursday:
FCD-Revs: FCD win
Saturday:
TFC-KC: draw
Crew-Dynamo: draw
DCU-RSL: DCU win
Fire-Rapids: Fire win
Sunday:
LAG-CUSA: draw
NY-SJ: NY win