In case you missed it (I had), Lazio is struggling.
http://football.guardian.co.uk/breakingnews/feedstory/0,,-7244347,00.html
What I think is interesting about this article is the idea that Lazio's attempt to play football on a budget has failed. Club President Claudio Lotito sounded vaguely like a Moneyball-style baseball manager when he annouced a new strategy: "The theory that who spends most wins is no longer valid. The winner is the one who carries out a proper project, based on values."
And he put a salary cap on players: a maximum salary of 500,000 euros. That's not really too far off of MLS salaries...
And how did they do?
Their first two years, they finished in European positions, which I think shows that President Lotito is right. You can compete in Europe on a budget. At the same time, they've struggled mightily this year and might be relegated, which shows the limitations of a strategy like this without debunking it entirely.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Friday, January 18, 2008
Osorio doesn't love the SuperDraft...
But he should.
Here's Coach Osorio's quote:
""If I am honest with you without criticizing or hurting anybody, I don't think there will be enough players to wait around for the second round," said New York Red Bulls coach Juan Carlos Osorio, whose first pick isn't until the second round (16th overall). "We're analyzing all our options and will decide if we should move up."
Osorio said he felt that there were five players at the adidas MLS Player Combine in Fort Lauderdale that were good enough to compete for a starting position and not more than 10 players who could make a team.
"I'm not just speaking on behalf of my own opinion but on behalf of the all the coaches as part of a general consensus," he said. "This time around doesn't have as many players as previous ones."
http://web.mlsnet.com/mls/events/superdraft/2008/article.jsp?ymd=20080117&content_id=135597&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp
Now, this might just be posturing, but unless this draft is the absolute worst ever (a distinction I think is held by the 1997 College Draft), you can be
certain that there will be between 6 and 12 guys that will not just make the team but have decent careers in the league. You can also be certain that one or two players from rounds three and four will make teams and perhaps even excell. How do I know? Well, I don't. No one knows about these players, which is how they get picked low. But these are players like Adam Christman (2007), Jonathan Bornstein (2006, which also featured Dyachenko and Veris, who aren't stars but could help a team like Osorio's-- whatever happened to Matt Groenwald? He looked good the few times I saw him in 2006), Chris Rolfe and Gonzalo Segares (2005), Michael Bradley, Josh Gros, David Wagenfuhr, Jeff Parke and Andy Dorman (2004), Logan Pause and Jamil Walker (2003), Alejandro Moreno and Davy Arnaud (2002), Edson Buddle, Craig Zadie, Jim Curtin, and Craig Waibel (2001).
The point here isn't that Craig Ziadie was a great player. He wasn't. But he was useful enough to contribute in MLS for four seasons. You need players like that-- and you're basically getting him for free. I wonder if Osorio really knows what he's seeing? I thought he did a great job with the Fire, but is the SuperDraft where we find out that he can't recognize the very raw talent of college youngsters?
Here's Coach Osorio's quote:
""If I am honest with you without criticizing or hurting anybody, I don't think there will be enough players to wait around for the second round," said New York Red Bulls coach Juan Carlos Osorio, whose first pick isn't until the second round (16th overall). "We're analyzing all our options and will decide if we should move up."
Osorio said he felt that there were five players at the adidas MLS Player Combine in Fort Lauderdale that were good enough to compete for a starting position and not more than 10 players who could make a team.
"I'm not just speaking on behalf of my own opinion but on behalf of the all the coaches as part of a general consensus," he said. "This time around doesn't have as many players as previous ones."
http://web.mlsnet.com/mls/events/superdraft/2008/article.jsp?ymd=20080117&content_id=135597&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp
Now, this might just be posturing, but unless this draft is the absolute worst ever (a distinction I think is held by the 1997 College Draft), you can be
certain that there will be between 6 and 12 guys that will not just make the team but have decent careers in the league. You can also be certain that one or two players from rounds three and four will make teams and perhaps even excell. How do I know? Well, I don't. No one knows about these players, which is how they get picked low. But these are players like Adam Christman (2007), Jonathan Bornstein (2006, which also featured Dyachenko and Veris, who aren't stars but could help a team like Osorio's-- whatever happened to Matt Groenwald? He looked good the few times I saw him in 2006), Chris Rolfe and Gonzalo Segares (2005), Michael Bradley, Josh Gros, David Wagenfuhr, Jeff Parke and Andy Dorman (2004), Logan Pause and Jamil Walker (2003), Alejandro Moreno and Davy Arnaud (2002), Edson Buddle, Craig Zadie, Jim Curtin, and Craig Waibel (2001).
The point here isn't that Craig Ziadie was a great player. He wasn't. But he was useful enough to contribute in MLS for four seasons. You need players like that-- and you're basically getting him for free. I wonder if Osorio really knows what he's seeing? I thought he did a great job with the Fire, but is the SuperDraft where we find out that he can't recognize the very raw talent of college youngsters?
Monday, January 14, 2008
Draft Days Steals
As the 2008 SuperDraft approaches, Steve Davis had this interesting article about the best draft day steals.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=498263&root=mls&cc=5901
As his list suggests, there are some real gems even deep in the SuperDrafts (of course, there are a few dogs in every first round too...) Davis' list is interesting, but he could have gone further:
37th overall, 2006: Johnathan Bornstein. Geez. The guy's left-footed-- sometimes it seems like a one-legged man could play in MLS, as long as he's left-footed. What took people so long to see the potential in the US National Team defender?
35th overall, 2005: Gonzalo Segares. A starting defender for the Fire almost since he was drafted, a finalist for Rookie of the Year, and a fringe Costa Rican national teamer.
34th overall, 2004: Josh Gros. Though sadly taking a year off from DC United due to effects from a possibly serious head injury, Gros is one of those guys you'd love to have on any team. He works hard, his skill is underrated and he's got a great understanding of the game. He's a workhorse, but even so, earned himself a cap with the US national team against Mexico.
36th overall, 2004: Michael Bradley. The kid who's now a near-lock starter for the national team and who's scored 7 goals from d-mid for his team in Holland was by no means a sure-thing in MLS. Although some fans didn't want to believe it, Bradley started to become an important player in MLS. Still, his game didn't take off until he left for Holland.
21st in the supplemental draft, 1997: Kerry Zavagnin. Another guy who might not be flashy, but who's proved himself in this league. To this day, he'd still start for most teams, and was an occasional national teamer.
Not a bad list for guys who didn't even make Davis' list, right? And this isn't even including guys like Corey Gibbs, who were picked late because they were likely headed overseas (LA in 2002 and Miami in 2001 both took late round fliers on him). It seems a little odd for Davis to include Arnaud and Christman-- both players I like, but who aren't quite on the level of Bradley or Bornstein.
A side note: one of the things that struck me while going down the lists is how much deeper the draft seems to be now. But is that the result of college soccer producing better players (unlikely), the improvement of scouting (definitely possible) or the fact that younger, talented players view MLS as a stable possibility and forego years of college (or simply skip it altogether)? I think all three are all somewhat true, but the latter two probably contribute most the depth of the draft. I'd love to take a look at whether players in the draft are getting younger (I think they are). Of course, the fact that so many decent players have been picked in the third or fourth round in recent years also suggests that, while scouting may have improved, it's still got a ways to go...
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=498263&root=mls&cc=5901
As his list suggests, there are some real gems even deep in the SuperDrafts (of course, there are a few dogs in every first round too...) Davis' list is interesting, but he could have gone further:
37th overall, 2006: Johnathan Bornstein. Geez. The guy's left-footed-- sometimes it seems like a one-legged man could play in MLS, as long as he's left-footed. What took people so long to see the potential in the US National Team defender?
35th overall, 2005: Gonzalo Segares. A starting defender for the Fire almost since he was drafted, a finalist for Rookie of the Year, and a fringe Costa Rican national teamer.
34th overall, 2004: Josh Gros. Though sadly taking a year off from DC United due to effects from a possibly serious head injury, Gros is one of those guys you'd love to have on any team. He works hard, his skill is underrated and he's got a great understanding of the game. He's a workhorse, but even so, earned himself a cap with the US national team against Mexico.
36th overall, 2004: Michael Bradley. The kid who's now a near-lock starter for the national team and who's scored 7 goals from d-mid for his team in Holland was by no means a sure-thing in MLS. Although some fans didn't want to believe it, Bradley started to become an important player in MLS. Still, his game didn't take off until he left for Holland.
21st in the supplemental draft, 1997: Kerry Zavagnin. Another guy who might not be flashy, but who's proved himself in this league. To this day, he'd still start for most teams, and was an occasional national teamer.
Not a bad list for guys who didn't even make Davis' list, right? And this isn't even including guys like Corey Gibbs, who were picked late because they were likely headed overseas (LA in 2002 and Miami in 2001 both took late round fliers on him). It seems a little odd for Davis to include Arnaud and Christman-- both players I like, but who aren't quite on the level of Bradley or Bornstein.
A side note: one of the things that struck me while going down the lists is how much deeper the draft seems to be now. But is that the result of college soccer producing better players (unlikely), the improvement of scouting (definitely possible) or the fact that younger, talented players view MLS as a stable possibility and forego years of college (or simply skip it altogether)? I think all three are all somewhat true, but the latter two probably contribute most the depth of the draft. I'd love to take a look at whether players in the draft are getting younger (I think they are). Of course, the fact that so many decent players have been picked in the third or fourth round in recent years also suggests that, while scouting may have improved, it's still got a ways to go...
Friday, January 4, 2008
When the next big thing isn't
Spare a thought for Santino Quaranta, who was waived by the Red Bulls the other day. He was among the most promising players when he made his MLS debut at age 16. While it's tempting to think that Quaranta's struggles (and bogus All-Star selection in his first year as a commissioner's pick) foreshadowed some of Freddy Adu's issues, the truth is that Quaranta managed to fight back from adversity to reach a higher level in MLS that Adu only achieved after he left. Quaranta's still young, so who knows what will happen, but he could have been a star. I hope he finds a way to make a soccer a career, even if it's not at the MLS level.
But Quaranta is also a cautionary tale for reactionary fans who are always ready to annoit the next big thing. Because fans hate failure, they irrationally despise former heroes who have failed them once. A young player, never touched by failure, becomes an appropriate object onto which unrealistic expectations can be placed. Then, when this player fails, as all players must, the fan then looks to the next big thing, conveniently forgetting that he went through the same process years earlier.
It turns out Bruce Arena wasn't an idiot for playing Brian McBride instead of Mike Magee. It turns out that Eddie Gaven wasn't a surefire replacement for Claudio Reyna. Or that Benny Feilhaber had made Landon Donovan expendable. Instead of discarding people when they fail, why not instead see what they do about it?
But Quaranta is also a cautionary tale for reactionary fans who are always ready to annoit the next big thing. Because fans hate failure, they irrationally despise former heroes who have failed them once. A young player, never touched by failure, becomes an appropriate object onto which unrealistic expectations can be placed. Then, when this player fails, as all players must, the fan then looks to the next big thing, conveniently forgetting that he went through the same process years earlier.
It turns out Bruce Arena wasn't an idiot for playing Brian McBride instead of Mike Magee. It turns out that Eddie Gaven wasn't a surefire replacement for Claudio Reyna. Or that Benny Feilhaber had made Landon Donovan expendable. Instead of discarding people when they fail, why not instead see what they do about it?
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