The MLS Playoff System, Post Mortem, Ad Naseum, Et Cetera-- Where the Critics have a point...

Now that the dust has settled on the MLS playoffs, it's as decent a time as any to take another look at the MLS playoff format.

Taking the 2007 playoffs into account, the higher seeds advance 70% in the first round. In the second round (single game elimination), the higher seeds advance 80% of the time (as both New England and Houston did this time around).

#2 seed Houston, of course, won the whole thing against fellow #2 seed New England.

So why was everyone complaining? I think there's a few arguments.

1. Quality of Play. Other formats might create more attractive games.

2. Creating incentives for intense play in the regular season. Rewarding higher seeds more (or differently) might make the regular season more meaningul.

3. Rewarding strong regular season performance. #3 is sort of the flip side to #2-- central to #3 is the idea that a team that does well in the regular season ought to have an easier road to the championship. The playoffs ought to reduce the number of fluke results for such teams.

As I've stated before, #2 and #3 appear to be dealt with pretty well by the current system. MLS high seeds already advance at a very rate. Making the rate even higher might have the perverse effect of making the playoffs seem less compelling if fans think the playoffs are just a rubber stamp affair.

But, even with a 70% advancement rate with higher seeds, the MLS playoff critics still have a few points.
1. Higher seeds win because they are better teams-- not because of the playoff format. This argument is 50% brilliance and 50% not-so-brilliance. First, the not-so-brilliant part: the higher seeds are only playing against teams that that they are better than because... wait for it... playing weak teams is part of the format's reward for being a higher seed. And the stats have shown that it's a pretty hefty advantage indeed.

But here's a more nuanced take: higher seeds aren't given much other advantage in the two-leg format. If a higher seed is hit by inopportune injuries (like Razov and Galindo's injuries for #1 Chivas USA, or Emilio and Moreno's injuries for #1 DC United), then their "better team" advantage evaporates because of bad timing. Injuries are a fact of life in sports, but this doesn't seem entirely "fair" that the playoff advantage gained from an entire season of work could be destroyed because of injuries at precisely the wrong moment. This is precisely the case where you'd want a higher seed to get a more concrete advantage, such as playing an extra game at home.

Then there's also this developing problem: Right now, MLS playoff teams include a few teams below 0.500. The worst MLS playoff teams are frequently pretty bad teams. However, when the league expands to 16 teams, gone will be the days when the 8 seed is a below 0.500 team. The 8 seed will be a progressively better team with each expansion of the league. What's this mean? It means that the advantage for high seeds in the current format will be correspondingly diminished. If, in five years, we start to see 1 and 2 seeds start to fall regularly to their lower seeded opponents, we'll need to revisit the playoff format.

2. The playoff format doesn't reward regular season prowess. Obviously, the stats show that the regular season is rewarded in the post-season with advancement about 70% of the time. But what if, as I suggested previously, no onr believes that the format is rewarding, even though the stats show that it positively is? Fans won't believe the regular season to be meaningful and players won't play like it is.

There are a couple of reasons why this might actually be the case.
A. Playing weaker teams only gives you a bonus if you actually play hard and are better. So your reward for playing hard and being better all season is... two more games of needing to play harder and be better in the playoffs. People like getting perks: having home field advantage is a little like getting a perk-- if a home team plays a visitor even, they'll likely win.

B. The MLS playoff format isn't an intuitively obvious reward as it is in other US leagues. The rewards might not be concrete enough or be compelling in small increments (i.e. would you rather play the Fire as a #1 seed or the Wizards as a #2 seed). Economists are frequently confounded by evidence that people frequently make irrational decisions because of little presnetational differences. If that's the case in MLS, maybe we need to re-think how the playoff format is presented to the players.

Why UEFA World Cup Qualification is Silly

Some folks are celebrating England's failure to qualify for the 2008 European Championship. I'll admit to joining in, just a little bit. Teams like Croatia can't be toyed with. While England may, in fact, be a superior team, Croatia had played consistently well and already shown it was capable of beating in England in Zagreb.

But do I really and truly believe England shouldn't be at the Euros? No. I think they're definitely stronger than either of the hosts. They're probably stronger than Greece and Turkey. Come to think of it, I think they'd be favorites against half the teams that did make it to the tournament.

So, while it's only fair to call out England's manager and players for a thouroughly uninspiring campaign, the UEFA qualifying system is absolute garbage. Depending on the strength of the group, a team might play only four meaningful matches. And the top teams will never play each other. We know Turkey can beat Greece and Norway, but that's an entirely different task than beating Italy and Germany.

So while there are almost always great teams among the failed contenders in UEFA, there are almost always terrible teams among the survivors-- teams that are almost guaranteed to be flops at the World Cup. We're left with the counter-intuitive situation where some are clamoring for more World Cup spots for UEFA based on the quality of teams that UEFA leaves behind, while others rightly point out that the continent also qualified the worst team in the 2006 World Cup (Serbia) and a couple of the monumental failures in 2002.

Of course, there will always be teams that underperform. And I believe UEFA has the deepest pool of talent of any confederation. But it's their responsibility to get the right teams to the big tournaments.

And frankly, the 2010 qualification draw for UEFA looks to set an all-time record for terrible. The Czech Republic may need to play precisely one meaningful match (against Poland on the road) to advance. On the plus side, Israel's in a very tight, competitive group and has its best shot at advancing to the World Cup in recent years. But the down side is that their toughest matches (against Greece and Switzerland) will not tell us much about their quality against top opponents. Do we really want to see the Netherlands beat Norway and Scotland to go the World Cup?

Now, of course, there will be upsets. There will always be upsets. But there are upsets on one hand, and flukes on the other. You don't want to determine participation in the WOrld Cup based on a couple of fluke results. But that's precisely what's guaranteed to happen yet again.

World Cup 2010...

So the qualification draw for the 2010 World Cup is already done.

The bad news is that I won't get to make any trips to pleasant Carribean islands in February to support the U.S. national team.

The good news is that the draw for the U.S. looks no better or worse than past draws.

The U.S. needs to beat the winner of Dominica-Barbados in June and then it would move on to a group of four, with two teams advancing. If the results pan out as expected (and generally, it would require a fairly big upset for them not to), the groups would be as follows:

Group 1
U.S.
Guatemala
Cuba
Trinidad and Tobago

These are each potentially tricky teams for the U.S. Each of the road trips will be difficult as each team is capable of taking points off the U.S. And who knows what playing in Havana will be like? If the U.S. starts off the campaign with a couple of games on the road, I wouldn't be shocked to see them with 2 points from 2 matches. But the U.S. should dominate at home, which will be enough to ensure their qualification for the final round.

Group 2
Mexico
Honduras
Canada
Jamaica

Whoa Nelly. I feel awfully bad for Canada. It seems like they're trying pretty hard north of the border to get their backwards soccer federation in order. And Canada sends a good number of players out to decent leagues (at least by CONCACAF standards), so there is talent. But this is a tough, tough group. Mexico, with its massive home field advatange and superior talent, ought to go through. But this is as tough a group as you can have at this stage.

Group 3

Costa Rica
El Salvador/Panama
Suriname/Montserrat/Guyana
Nicaragua/Haiti

I'd call this the weakest group. I expect Costa Rica to cruise. It's tough to call the winner of three of the pre-qualifying matches. Panama is no pushover, and El Salvador has fallen far, but you never know what you're going to get with the Central American sides. Haiti should beat Nicaragua, but, again, you really don't know what you're going to get with these teams.

Which means that Costa Rica is the clear winner here. Whoever else advances will just be making up numbers in the final round of qualification.

Why do so many people think Ruud Gullit is an "awesome" choice?

A big name does not a big manager make.

Otherwise, why not hire Lindsay Lohan?

Don't get me wrong: it is perfectly acceptable for the Galaxy to decide they need a "sexy" coach. And new Galaxy coach Ruud Gullit is, apparently, a sexy man.

But why would anyone think he's a great choice, an awesome choice, a new frontier for the league?

We've had coaches that have coached World Cup teams (even some good ones) and we've had coaches that have won the World Cup. So the idea that Gullit, with a coaching win in the FA Cup with Chelsea, breaks new ground smacks of a pointless fixation on the English premiership.

Gullit was a great player. But as a manager, the results were mixed. He hasn't coached in a couple of years and his last strint, one fourth place finish during a year at Feyenoord in Holland, was considered disappointing. Before that, you have to go back to the 90s for his last job. What we're left with is an FA Cup, which Ruud backers never fail to remind you "happened back when Chelsea never won anything." And Gullit never seems to stick around anywhere-- both his managerial and playing career are marked by frequent disagreements and marching off into the sunsent in a huff. If any manager came to MLS with Ruud's credentials, he'd be politely shown the door. But because we are remember Gullit as an awesome player and a good man (raising awareness against Apartheid when Europe wasn't really focused on it), we want him to be a good coach.

And he may yet turn into one. But let's not confuse hope with reality.

Nice goal, good game

And so the Revs beat the Fire and are now heading to MLS Cup, where most folks are expecting a rematch of last year's final with the Houston Dynamo.

The Revs weren't quite as awesome this year as in year's past. Andy Dorman stepped up his game and was a capable replacement for Clint Dempsey, who's now knocking on real stardom at Fulham. But Dorman's fine play only lasted half a season. The additional contributions of Ralston and Wells Thompson don't really compensate for losing a guy like Dempsey. But the Revs still had Taylor Twellman and Pat Noonan. They still have Defender of the Year Michael Parkhurst.

And the Chicago Fire know that they have Shalrie Joseph.

It was funny how many 50-50 balls ended up on Joseph's feet. The Fire had to feel frustrated-- they played well enough but seemed to come up just short in every important moment. Ironically, Fire coach Osorio, who correctly noted the lack of tactical variance in the league, found his team unable to break down a compact New England defense. And the Fire goal, announced by waves of attacks and crosses, never came to be.

Don't Call It an Upset

The first round of MLS playoffs saw the two teams with the best records (number 1 seed, DC United and number 2 seed Chivas USA) go crashing out to the 7 and 8 seeds, Chicago and Kansas City.

And a number of people are upset about the "upsets". These folks believe that the playoff format (home and away in round one) doesn't give enough of an advantage to the higher seeds. Generally, they'd like to see MLS move to a best of three or single elimination.

Personally, I like single elimination, but I think the dissenters are off-base here. I don't think Chicago's triumph over United is really an upset at all: Chicago's been among the best teams in MLS since midseason, which coincidentally was when they added an experienced coach, a superstar midfielder and a talented and versitile defender. Their mediocre 10-10-10 record reflects the first half struggles of an almost entirely different team. And United, for their part, were hit by injuries to two key players right before the series started. An upset? Not really.

Kansas City's win over Chivas USA is, indeed, a bit more of an upset. But again, what do you expect? Chivas USA was missing its two leading scorers. The Goats were lucky during the regular season that their depth was never tested, but who was surprised to see them fall in Kansas City when they started Laurent Merlin and Jon Cunliffe up top? Kansas City earned their win, but Chivas USA lost because the dropoff from their starters to their bench was simply too large.

So if these aren't real upsets, what does this mean for the playoff format? It means you can't use these results as evidence that the playoff format isn't giving enough of an advantage to higher seeds. In theory, the advantage posed by having the Western Conference Champion facing a below .500 team ought to be more than enough. Do you really need more reward than facing Kansas City instead of, say, Houston? And the results since the playoff format was adopted in 2003 seem to bear this out: about 65-70% of the higher seeds have made it through the first round....

"Irrelevant" is such a strong word

And I'm not entirely sure everyone knows what it means.

A couple of ESPN columnists have stated that seedings in MLS playoffs are "irrelevant" because none of the higher seeds won the first game in the two leg series.

To which I have to ask: for higher seeds to be meaningful, must they win the road game? No-- why on earth would anyone expect teams, even very good teams, to win on the road in MLS? United, the best team in the regular season, was barely .500 on the road at 6-5-4. Chivas USA, the next best team was below .500 and was outscored 20 to 18.

So, the only way to judge if the seeds are meaningful is to wait and see who actually advances. In the past, the higher seed has advanted 75% of the time, despite frequently losing or tying the first game. So, why exactly Jen Chang and Steve Davis at ESPN are calling seeding irrelevant, I don't know.

There is, of course, a more subtle point to be made: you expect the higher seeds to do well-- they're higher seeds becuase they're better teams. So it would be a shock if they didn't win most of the time.

But precisely how often do you need your higher seeds to win? I took a look at the regular season records of the higher seeds to try and set a baseline. From 2003-2006 (the period during which the current playoff setup has been in effect), the higher seeds earned 1.58 points a game during the regular season (which equates to a solid, 50 point regular season). During the first round of the playoffs, the higher seeds earned 1.69 points a game. So, the higher seeds are getting more points (off of better opposition) than they got during the regular season. So the best guess is that, yes, seeding means something.

But is 1/10th of a goal enough for teams to want to be a 2 seed instead of a 3 seed? That's a tougher call.

I thought I'd take a quick look at a league where home field advantage is indeed supposed to mean something: MLB over the past five years. But the results weren't quite what I expected. Overall, only half of the higher seeds advanced from the first round of the playoffs. And the higher seeds, which had combined for a .594 winning percentage during the regular season, combined for only .519 during the first round of the postseason. Against this backdrop, I'm starting to wonder why MLS's playoffs aren't even more random.

So... what does it all mean? I'm still not sure. I know that seeding is worth something, but I don't think players or fans believe it. Until more people start to believe, like the Polar Express, the playoff system isn't going to be viewed as attractive.

Danny Dichio: The Beautiful Game Embodied?

Toronto FC has received great coverage in the local press to go along with stellar support in the stands. Along with great coverage, however, they also have columnist Cathal Kelly, who seems genetically predisposed to nonsense.

In this latest article http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/270316, Kelly writes:

"[Beckham] was here to lend [soccer] glamour, to attract coverage and to serve as its spokesmodel.

It was the job of other, hungrier, more-reasonably-paid players to prove the game's worth with the ball at their feet.

Witness what Danny Dichio's done in Toronto. The English journeyman is already a cult hero because he is exactly the sort of player Beckham never could be – hard-charging, camera shy and occasionally brutal. The powerful striker arrived an unknown, but made his name through his play."

There are a couple of ideas here that are just completely wrong. First, while Dichio deserves his cult hero status in Toronto, does he really get the adulation because he's "camera shy"? Or is it because he scored the club's first ever goal and led them in scoring? Second, the idea that Beckham could never be "hard charging... and occasionally brutal" shows that Kelly hasn't watched much Beckham. Becks is a workhorse midfielder, relying on an impressive workrate. No, he can't tackle to save a baby seal, but that doesn't stop him from trying. Becks isn't a dirty player but he earns his red cards.

But finally, and most importantly, if guys like Dichio are our best hope to "prove the game's worth", then we're sunk. Surely guys like Cuahtemoc Blanco, Landon Donovan or even Canuck midfield De Rosario are better suited to that task-- I just get the sense that Kelly hasn't really watched enough of the league to know that they-- the real purveyors of the beautiful game-- rather than hard-worker scrappers like Dichio are what make the game wonderful.

In any event, I'd like to propose a cage match between Paul Gardner, whose motto is "If it ain't latin, then it's shit", and Kelly, whose motto is "If it's not Toronto, I don't know about it." That should be more entertaining than a season of Toronto FC games.

Fare thee well

And so David Beckham's Galaxy exit before the MLS playoffs begin.

The Fire-Galaxy game put an exclamation point on what many were saying all along: the Fire have turned into a great team, whose level of play is not reflected by their 7th place finish. The Galaxy, on the other hand, played just about well enough to sneak into the playoffs. There would have been no injustice had the Galaxy been the 8 seed-- they are no worse than many 8 seeds in years past. The true injustice would have been that they needed to knock off a vastly superior Fire team. The Fire created and created chance upon chance. The Gals were really on their heels.

Of course, as we go into the playoffs, we should also note that the Fire squandered and squandered. Their finishing was profligate to the extreme. While Chad Barrett has had a career year, the 7 goals he scored this year in nearly 2000 minutes do not compare well to his 5 in 800 minutes last year. This year was not the great leap forward expected of him. In the playoffs, I can't help but think that the Fire will be punished for not actually putting the ball in the net against DC United.

But spare a thought for the Galaxy: their end of season run made for great theater. Sure, they benefitted from more than a few lucky bounces and calls. Still, they played more cohesively in the stretch run. Credit Donovan for making everyone remember that he's still a great player. Credit Chris Klein for finally displaying the veteran savvy that Alexi Lalas brought him in for. Credit Joe Cannon for not completely losing his shit after some of the awful defense he saw played in front of him. And the younger players finally started to get it too. This year's Galaxy were a limited team that never got full use of their superstar signing, but they were no punchline.

Fire-Galaxy: the awesomeist game ever?

The LA Galaxy's tie with the New York Red Bulls sets up what many are calling the "awesomeist game ever": a match-up between Fire and Ice, yin and yang, Hall and Oates, Watson and Crick, Blanco and Beckham. Winner take all.

Some might even say that MLS couldn't have scripted it better, but that's clearly not quite right because it looks increasingly unlikely that both Hall and Oates will be going to the playoffs this year (no bonus points for guessing whether Blanco is more like Hall or more like Oates). As I understand (and given the byzantine nature of the tiebreaks, I may not understand at all), the Fire and the Galaxy can still both make the playoffs but they will need some help from the other playoff chasers.

Here's a quick run down, with goal differential (GD):
Chicago 37 points, GD -6, plays LA
Kansas City 37 points GD -2, plays FC Dallas
Colorado 35 points GD -4, plays Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles 34 points, GD -9, plays Chicago

With the possible exception of Chicago (and trust me-- you don't want to get into the tiebreakers) each team needs a win, but a win will not guarantee a spot for LA or Colorado.

Here are the relevant matchups:
Dallas-Wizards (at Pizza Hut Park): it feels like an awfully long time since either side put in a convincing performance. Dallas won the first meeting between the teams and is getting healthier, which means Dallas's all-time best signing ever, Brazilian stepover superstar Denilson probably won't take the field. And Dallas hasn't exactly been unbeatable at the Pizza Box, going 7-4-3, but with only a plus 2 goal differential.

So what's going to happen? Will Eddie Johnson show up? This one's going to come down to which team cares less, which, judging by the way both teams have played recently, suggests that they probably won't bother playing the game and Dallas will give KC a 2-0 decision by forfeit.

Colorado-Salt Lake (at Dick's Sporting Goods Park): despite the fact that Real Salt Lake is now like the kid in 5th grade that tries really hard but still ends up at the bottom of the class, games between the Rapids and RSL have been pretty competitive. In Colorado, the Rapids hold an edge, winning 3 and losing only 1, but most of those games have been tight. In short, this is an honest to goodness rivalry game.

We've been told that RSL is "desperate" to avoid being the last placed team in the league, which is nice, but as far as I know, 12th place in MLS doesn't come with a big bonus. I think RSL will play reasonably hard for the rivalry (and can still win the rivalry trophy, the Rocky Mountain Cup, with a win), but they are a pretty limited team.

The Rapids really aren't so much better and were looking forward to the offseason until they became the first team to beat Chivas USA at home last week.

What do I think will happen? I don't know, but the thought the of the Rapids in the playoffs gives me shivers. And not good shivers. More like shivers after an acute bout of dysentery.

The Awesomeist Game (in Chicago): with MLS's luck, this will be a dull 0-0 draw, eliminating both teams, and Blanco will accidentally decapitate Beckham while hurting his own back in the process. Beckham will, however, continue to run around the field, headless, which is pretty much what he did on Thursday against the Red Bulls.

I really, really hope that results on Saturday go LA's way. I'd rather see them in the playoffs than either the Wizards or the Rapids and, frankly, purely because I like seeing Beckham and Donovan. But LA is not a great team-- Donovan can only do so much by himself. Beckham's probably capable of being that guy too, but we haven't really seen enough from him to judge.

If it really is winner-take-all, I love the Galaxy's luck, but I think the Fire are actually a good team-- maybe one of the better sub-.500 teams in MLS history. Fire 1-0.

It's not what you say...

I've got a few favorite soccer journos and bloggers-- Ives, Arroyave, Goff spring immediately to mind, but the list could go on.

One of the guys I confess that I just don't get is Jamie Trecker. It's not because he never makes good points-- even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. It's because I just don't like how the guy thinks. He believes that it takes guts to do what he does-- to stand up to the incompetent USSF, to lambast MLS and to generally show US soccer journalists how real independent media really is.

Those are noble goals, but the guy just doesn't have the horses to pull the carriage.

He starts are recent blog with the following observation "We never know as much as we think we do", which pretty much renders most blogs useless, including his and mine.
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/JamieTrecker/2007/10/10/Unable_to_learn#comments

But what he's going for is to show that US soccer keeps on making bad calls-- but only Trecker is capable of making the right calls. The following list are what he calls "bad calls", coupled with the lesson in basic rhetoric that I wish Jamie would learn:


1. "Top of the list has to be the handling of David Beckham. The only conclusion one can draw from the events of this summer is that MLS grossly mismanaged the handling of the star and turned what had been rapturous mainstream attention into recriminations and the disappearance of too much coverage for the sport."

What hyperbolic crap. Becks came to MLS injured. The only question is "how much worse did MLS make a bad situation?" Even before the mismanagement, MLS was dealing with a public relations nightmare-- Becks wasn't ready to play and people had bought tickets.

So this brings up something that Trecker always fails to do: "consider what else could have been done?" Trecker never does that, because he's a talker and not a doer. Should MLS have told fans Beckham wasn't going to play for the rest of the season when that wasn't true? What if MLS had attempted to capitalize on Becks less and Beckham had gotten healthy? Wouldn't that have been a missed opportunity? Of course.

Lesson 1: Consider the other possibilities.

MLS has brought in millions because of Beckham. The media coverage was good. Galaxy coach Frank Yallop isn't free from blame for playing Beckham, but frankly, the negative coverage was coming regardless of what happened.

2. "MLS insists that its low-cost model is the only way to ensure the sport’s survival and stability. It’s funny how, then, that the teams who have signed big names have experienced upticks in attendance and press coverage while the ones that haven’t continue to wither. It’s also funny how the best American players ditch the league as soon as they can."

Lesson 2: In articles about the limits of knowledge, please display some.
The team that has experienced, by farm the biggest uptick in attendance: the New England Revolution. The teams that have experienced the 3rd and 4th greatest increases? DC United and the Colorado Rapids-- two teams that also don't have any of the big name players.

And one team that did bring in a big name: Dallas, with Denilson, actually has fewer people in the stands than last year.

But, I'm willing to grant that the big names have been good for MLS, but that brings us to Lesson Three and Lesson Four:
Lesson Three: Be Consistent Didn't Trecker just make a big deal about how mismanaged Beckham was? Now he's saying that the teams with big names had better media coverage and better attendance? Either it worked or it didn't, Jamie, which is it?

Lesson Four: Talking business is easier than knowing business
Jamie acts like everyone's surprised that David Beckham sold lots of Galaxy jerseys and that Cuahtemoc Blanco is bringing in Mexican and Mexican-American fans everywhere. As far as I was concerned, we knew that would happen based on our experiences with Freddy Adu and Luis Hernandez.

The question instead was: "Is it worth it?" Merely increaing revenue isn't enough, especially if (a) you don't actually receive all of that revenue and (b) you have to spend too much to generate the increase. Buying David Beckham didn't make sense when the Galaxy were in the Rose Bowl because the economics were different. It makes sense now. It would seem that MLS bigwigs actually have learned a lot over the years. So bringing up how MLS decided to try out hiring Big Names doesn't exactly support Jamie's thesis, does it? No. In fact, it was a terrible example.

3. "The truth is that many players are being flat-out exploited by contracts that don’t crack $20,000. New England’s Adam Cristman has toiled away this season for $11,000. Due to some MLS legerdemain, until recently, he was not a “senior” roster player. That allowed New England to pay him even less than the pathethic $17K minimum. What an example this league sets for kids, huh?"

No. Christman actually made $17,700, which is a developmental salary and not, as Jamie indicates, the minimum salary for senior players. The minimum for senior players is still only $30,000, but Trecker's got to get this stuff right.
Lesson Five: Check your facts.

4. "MLS sticks to a summer calendar, making the argument that soccer families are the target audience.

It’s funny how, then, at the games I go to, the crowds are filled with young people on dates and that horrifying “ethnic” crowd. It’s also funny how attendances are awful at the start of the season, increase at the back end of the year… until the playoffs, when things drop off the ledge."
Lesson Six: Don't mistake your local situation for the situation everywhere
The funny thing is, when I attend MLS games, I see plenty of kids. IN fact, that's a complaint of MLS fans everywhere: that there are too many kids. I don't know what games Trecker is going to, but he needs to get out to other MLS cities.

Trecker really ought to note, too, that the reason that attendance increases in the fall is generally because the kids are back from vacation and ready to go to games. From what MLS GMs have said, this is largely due to group sales to youth soccer. Which also explains why attendance plummets in the playoffs: there's no time for group sales (in addition to the fact that marketing time is shorter in general and that playoff tickets aren't included in season ticket packages).

5. "The new women’s league has been pushed back from 2008 to 2009? Why? That’s an excellent question, because it’s a repeat of the same stagger-start that doomed WUSA I. The truth might be that there is no good reason beyond the fact that this league doesn’t have the financial legs."
Lesson Seven: Have a point.
Seriously, what is Trecker's point here? That it's big news that the women's league needs another year to attract investment if it's going to succeed?

An addition bonus point is that Trecker's assertion that the "stagger-start" is what doomed the original league is just moronic. The league failed because it didn't start up in 2000? How about the league failed because it blew through five years of financing in one year, despite meeting attendance projections?

After reading yet anothed botched Trecker article, I just have to ask "Is this guy ever going to learn?"

Westward Hos

I'm embarrased to admit that I get awfully tired of fans in MLS expansion cities.

Yes, I know-- I should be happy they care. But they just seem to think that nothing that's gone before in MLS has anything to do with what their city is doing now. We saw it this year with Toronto: best atmosphere in MLS? Almost without a doubt. Unprecedented fan support? Erm... no.

That said, Toronto appeared to have set the standard for MLS expansion by selling out nearly every game this year and by having a true soccer-knowledgeable public. The recipe for success appeared pretty clear: open up the team in a soccer-specific stadium, sell the game to true soccer supporters and get them to build a solid season ticket base.

But now MLS is contemplating expansion to Seattle, and the model, so far, can't be any more different. Seattle MLS will be playing in Qwest Field, a "cavernous" NFL stadium (note: the use of the adjective "cavernous" is required in any post about MLS in NFL stadiums).

Seattle fans like to point out that Qwest was designed for soccer and approved by Seattle taxpayers on that basis. Let's unpack that a little.

First, Seattle is not the first NFL stadium "designed" with soccer in mind. I'm reminded that some described Gillette Stadium the same way, so let's not pretend that "designed for soccer" means anything in the abstract. I'm perfectly willing to defer to fans who have been to Qwest and say that it's actually pretty good for soccer-- but no combination of curtains, tarps and sightlines will be able to make every fan forget that the upper deck is empty for MLS matches.

As for the "approved by taxpayers" bit-- I'm not quite sure it's relevant. Besides, if Seattle taxpayers were swayed by the "also designed for soccer" bit, it's because they were already 90% convinced by the "NFL stadium" bit.

Even accepting, as I do, Seattle fans' contention that Qwest has a great atmosphere for games of the lower division soccer team, the Seattle Sounders, even when there are only 10,000 in the stadium, is the game day experience as good as it would be in a soccer-specific stadium (SSS)? Seattle fans might point to games at Crew Stadium, where a somnolent crowd chews on brats and engages in drinking games revolving around how many crosses Frankie Hejduk will mishit. That's a great point: an SSS is no guarantee of a great crowd. From what I've heard, Seattle fans will put Columbus to shame. But all things being equal, wouldn't the same crowd of Seattle fans be better in an SSS than in Qwest? Of course it would.

And then there's the economic side of things. Seattle fans are quick to point out that gazillionaire Paul Allen is involved in the ownership group-- and may be allowing MLS Seattle to play rent-free in Qwest. Their logic goes something like this: Paul Allen has made lots of money. Therefore, he doesn't make any mistakes, and this team will make money.

Frankly, that's an idiotic argument made only by people who don't understand business. Rich men make "mistakes" all of the time-- they underestimate the importance of certain factors or over-emphasize others. You don't think rich guys were buying subprime mortgages? Frequently, the rich will take huge, but calculated, risks precisely because they are rich. Investing in soccer in the US certainly falls into that category.

So, while I'll defer to any guy as successful as Allen, that doesn't mean his actions shouldn't be scrutinized. It is harder for MLS teams to make money in an NFL stadium than a soccer-specific stadium. Even rent free, an MLS team will forego certain revenue streams, like concessions, parking and merchandising. Even if the Qwest contract gives MLS Seattle 100% of those revenue streams, certain other revenue streams simply won't be available, like stadium naming rights. It's conceivable that playing rent free in Seattle will actually cost MLS more in terms of lost revenue. And it's certainly going to be harder to build a season ticket base when capacity in Qwest won't be meaningfully limited. This summer, you couldn't score a ticket to Toronto's BMO Field, even though the team stopped scoring sometime in March. For all but the highest demand games, anyone in Seattle will be able to walk up to Qwest on game day and buy a ticket. I'm sure they'll sell a decent number of season tickets because Seattle is a good market, but will they sell as many as they would have in an SSS? Of course not.

Finally, we have the old cannard that Seattle is going to be a great MLS market because the NASL was popular in Seattle. Can't we put this one to rest yet? There simply isn't any correlation between NASL success and MLS success. Times have changed, the product has changed, and, even if that weren't true, the metrics of success have changed.

None of the above means Seattle MLS won't be successful. There are a number of factors that point to success: I like the ownership group, I like the downtown location of Qwest and I like the fans' obvious, if shrill, passion for the sport. I am conscious of the quote from Voltaire: "Le mieux est l'ennemi du bien"... the best is the enemy of the good. In other words, striving for perfection can undermine real progress. So, let's not oppose Seattle on the basis that there are, theoretically, better approaches to building a team. But, at the same time, let's not sweep 12 years of experience under the rug.

Stupid Conspiracy Theories

Some folks would have you believe that the Freemasons, the Knights Templar and Don Garber are fixing MLS to make sure that David Beckham makes it into the playoffs.

In Saturday's MLS nightcap, a red card and penalty against the Galaxy's opponent, Toronto, would seem to provde some evidence for this. But Marco Reda's grab on Gavin Glinton on a breakaway seemed pretty clear (at least on the replay). It looked like a good call. But LA, despite a man advantage, continued to look bad and let Toronto tie up the game. Only a late surge by LA got them a barely earned victory.

I'm not one of those who will bag on LA if they make the playoffs after being terrible for so long. But these wins are, by and large, not particularly convincing. The Galaxy's unbeaten streak has featured 3 ejections and 3 penalty kicks. I mention this not because I think the league is rigged but because it suggests to me that LA still hasn't really righted the ship.

This is what an 8 seed looks like in 13 team MLS. They're really not that good. Compare them to Chicago, which is the odds on favorite to be the 8 seed, but are an example of a team that has turned the tide. They had a bad middle of the season, but, as they're playing right now, they can hang with the best. I can see them pulling an upset in the playoffs. The Gals, should they make the playoffs, look like odd's on favorites to bow out in the first round.

Their roster still looks like Lalas was attempting to build a First XI out of the most disappointing players in the league. Between Buddle, Martino, Gordon, Glinton and, good lord, Carlos Pavon, the Gals have more reclamation projects than the EPA. How bad is Carlos Pavon? I get that the guy's not as mobile as he used to be. But why does his touch suck so bad? In the first few minutes of the Toronto-LA game, we watched him fail to win a corner by accidentally nutmegging the Toronto defender when he needed to smack the Red in the legs with the ball and then lose balls in ever more creative ways, such as trapping it by kicking it into his face and then watching it bounce out of bounds.

One final thought on FSC's presentation of the LA-Toronto game: I liked how they were talking about how rookie Josh Tudela's play was going to make things really difficult for coach Frank Yallop in deciding the starting lineup, which has got to be the stupidest of many odd comments during the broadcast. Josh Tudela's "backup" is David Beckham-- somehow I don't think the rookie for Evansville is going to keep an England international on the bench.

Problem Solved!

When Jeff Cunningham joined Toronto, he had scored 93 goals in his MLS career. Because Jeff likes to remind people of this fact, he chose the number 93 for his jersey.

At the start of the season, Cunny noted that, next year, he was going to need to ask the league for special permission to to wear a number greater than 100.

It now looks certain that Cunningham won't need to ask the league's permission after all. That's the good news.

The bad news is that it's because Cunningham has scored only 3 goals since joining the offense-challenged Red Brigade. Unless he explodes for 4 more goals, Cunny will be stuck on 96...

Other Thoughts
1. Cuahtemoc Blanco is the most exciting player in MLS. Even when he messes up, like against DC United. As two United defenders closed in, Blanco attempted his signature move: trapping the ball between his feet and bunnyhopping between the two defenders. This time, however, his momentum carried him backwards and he fell on his rear and the ball trickled away. But as if you needed an example of how, even when he's bad, he's good, the ball still made it to the Fire's Wilman Conde in the box.

2. Sadly, the Fire's finishing is not on par with Blanco's creation. Wanchope has been a disappointment, but he's still a useful player. Chris Rolfe is a badass. Even Chad Barrett should be lauded for his awarenesxs and work effort. But the Fire needs a finisher. That said, I think they can now play with any of the league's best teams.

3. We have a race. DC's Emilio is stuck on league-leading 20 goals. NY's Juan Pablo Angel hit two against Kansas City for 19. The scoring race will go down to the last game.

Why hate on KC?

It seems like more than a few people are excited about the still remote possibility that LA will make it to the playoffs. I admit-- I am too. Especially the prospect of a Blanco-Becks showdown at Toyota Park to close out the season with a playoff berth on the line. MLS really couldn't script a better ending. There's just one problem-- it means that either the Fire or LA (i.e. Blanco or Becks) won't be in the postseason.

But, just as Obi-Wan says in Return of the Jedi, there is another. Creative commentators, like Ives Galarcep (http://njmg.typepad.com/sbi/2007/10/monday-mornin-1.html) picks KC to crash out of the playoffs, which opens up dream matchups between Team Beckham and Chivas, as well as DC United and Team Blanco.

And I get it: the Wizards are in free fall and apparently had to resort to (http://blog.washingtonpost.com/soccerinsider/2007/10/kc_aftermath_and_the_weekend.html ) putting iocane powder
in United's breakfast in order to try to get something out of their Friday night showdown. But after years of equalling the Colorado Rapids in sleep-inducing futbol, this year's Wizards are actually pretty decent to watch. And they need a playoff spot. Really really need one.

So while the Galaxy have stitched together a winning streak using nothing more than heart and an improbable run of form by Gavin Glinton, who's now been released from a Thai prison, KC's probably the more entertaining team... It's just that they're not very good...

Rico Duro-- Clark gets NINE games of suspension...

And a fine of $10,000...

Some folks are calling this suspension "unjust", "cruel" and "absurd", which makes me wonder whether those words mean the same thing in different parts of the country.

Personally, I expected six games, like the suspensions of Sala and Herron. Personally, I think Sala, who had a few moments to cool down before doing his best Bruce Lee imitation with three Rapids players, did the worst thing. But I can see how Rico's Danny Bonaduce act might seem even more out of control. Reasonable minds can differ, and I don't think the league is being unreasonable here.

I do wonder, however, how suspensions and fines stop people from losing their heads. If someone goes nuts, they're clearly not acting or thinking rationally and wondering how a potential fine might cut into their spending cash...

Crime, Punishment and the Little Fish

It was like in Face/Off where evil Nicholas Cage stole good John Travolta's face, implanted it on his own, and started doing really bad deeds to Ms. Travolta.

But this was just as much science fiction. I couldn't believe my eyes: Houston d-mid Rico Clark, about as nice a midfield destroyer as you could ever hope to meet, was kicking Dallas cheapshot and scoring machine Carlos Ruiz on the ground late in the game in 3-0 Houston victory... While we shouldn't go overboard on the St. Rico stuff (he has been ejected before), it was the kind of ugly scene that you expect Ruiz-- and not Clark-- to be involved in. It was even more mysterious because Houston was absolutely dominating the match-- why would Clark go nuts when he's on the winning side of a rout?

Most commentators have wondered what punishment Clark would get for Fish abuse. I think that's actually an easy question: six games. That's the mark that's been set for really bad behavior, like going after a ref (like Andy Herron) or clocking Hunter Freeman (like Dario Sala). By my count, that means Clark misses the rest of the season unless Houston makes it to MLS Cup.

The more interesting question, in my mind, is what to do with Carlos Ruiz. A few more details emerged about Clark's kick: it turns out that Ruiz had punched Clark in the back almost immediately before Rico's reaction. We shouldn't equate the two actions though- Rico Suave kicking a guy while he's down is pretty awful. A punch in the back while going for a ball is not as serious.

But I still think Ruiz needs to sit out the rest of the season (and for Dallas, a five game suspension should do it). Why? Because the guy's got a history. For some, you shouldn't take a player's history into account when meting out suspensions and fines. Why not?? As a society, we implicitly take bad behavior into account because it shows that people just aren't learning. This is the idea behind Three Strikes and You're Out. I'm not suggesting that MLS adhere to such rigid standards and send Jean Valjean to prison for stealing bread. And I'm not suggesting that hardnosed defenders be suspended for multiple games because it's their job to foul... a lot. But if you've got a history of smacking people around, then yes, the league needs to keep giving longer and longer suspensions for that kind of behavior.

And Carlos Ruiz's record ain't great-- he racks up cards and fouls as if he were paid to defend instead of score goals. His bad deed isn't as bad a Rico's, but given his history, perhaps his punishment should be.

US-Mexico: Efficiency, Effectivity and Pretty Futbol

The US would kill to have a player like Nery Castillo. The US would love to field Andres Guardado. And, boy, would the US like to have Barcelona's Mexican starlets. The US would also like to have Mexico's history of playing up to its opponents: remarkable runs in the World Cup and Copa America against quality opponents. The US would love to have even an ounce of Mexico's technical flair. And, yeah, the US would love to have great club teams that can compete in Libertadores.

The Mexican National Team, however, isn't smart enough to realize that they should want a few things that the US has: level-headedness, teamwork and, above all, efficiency.

When I say efficiency, I don't mean that the US finishes its chances (although it certainly did so in February in its friendly 2-0 over Mexico). In the Gold Cup, US finishing was pretty bad. What the US does particularly well is play an ugly game but still manage to create opportunities. It does that with assembly line efficiency that would make Eli Whitney proud. Contrast this to Mexico: the seleccion Azteca is unable to generate real offense that would seem to be merited by its promiscuous show of fine football maneuvers. Guys like Guardado and Castillo should be absolutely lethal to the shakey US defense, but they seemed to think that you get points just by beating their man. You don't. They need to make final passes to men making runs in the box. Apart from Guardado's goal, where were those? Indeed, Mexico got so intoxicated with their pretty futbol that they largely forgot that the US was, despite playing pretty ugly soccer, creating dangerous chances. So when Mexico decided to open up in the second half in an attempt to pile on the US, you could feel a goal coming. Whether or not it would be from the US or from Mexico was up in the air. But all Mexico had to do was give the ball to the US and let the US try to pass out of triple teams-- something the technically challenged Yanks simply cannot do.

Instead, the Mexican team bought their own hype, once again. What's the saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. What about "fool me nine times?"

A post scripts:
Is the US the best team in the region? Well, as repeating regional champions, you'd have to say that they are. But if you had your mortgage on the line and needed to bet for a CONCACAF opponent against Brazil, would you pick the US or Mexico? I think Mexico is a better team against the world's best, but a wholly impractical one against the second tier.

How much should we make of the US's record against Mexico on American soil? I'm not sure, but how many victories do you think the US would have if the Yanks played Mexico in Azteca 10 times? I'm thinking of a whole number between zero and 0.5.

Don't get me wrong: when these two teams meet, the US should be favored to get a result. But Mexico deserves respect: their technique and talent are superior to the US, which is what makes them perennial second rounders at the World Cup. The US still can't match that.

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 11

1. Just when I was getting ready to annoint Chivas USA as "best of the West" (which is akin to saying they're the prettiest girl on the naval base), an undermanned Dynamo puts 4 on them. Dallas wins against Colorado in Denver (where the Rapids have really underperformed--- think of how bad they'd be if it weren't for the altitude advantage!). And then the (still) undermanned Dynamo beat Kansas City on the road. For my money, Dallas is still a paper tiger. Houston's clawed their way back to be the Team to Beat in the West.

2. Didn't I say last week how Real Salt Lake was dangerous? Although I seriously wondered if RSL was going to be able to get through the season without a single victory (the MLS equivalent of shooting the moon), I figured they had enough spark to beat United, which, even during its recent nice run, seems strangely subdued.

3. Don't look now, but the Crew have a WINNING STREAK. LA is now the team most in need of a win. Hopefully Donovan is not skipping Copa America for nothing and can go back to the Home Depot Center and lead his team.

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 10

1. United looks like they're back on track. But I've still got a feeling that there might be struggles ahead: yes, they demolished both the Red Bulls and Chicago, but both teams are absolutely devastated right now by injuries and/or call-ups. Chicago started a number of players who probably will not make in MLS.

But you've got to give United credit. They can only play the teams with the players available, and it wasn't like United was missing any players either-- Boswell and Moreno are "stars". But I wonder if Moreno will be starting for United when he returns from Copa America. United's next game is against RSL, who are winless but not playing horribly. In my mind, that makes them a terribly dangerous team-- let's see how United does against a (Freddy-less) Real Salt Lake.





2. Will Fire Coach Dave Sarachan last long enough to see Cuahtemoc Blanco save Chicago's season? He can't be blamed for the injuries and the call-ups, but he's been using those same reasons for underperformance for a couple of seasons now. I think we can blame Chicago's lack of depth on the coach. The thing is, and I realize that most Chicago fans disagree, Sarachan teams can actually play good soccer. I'm just not sure that Coach Dave knows how to put together a team.



3. The top of the table clash between the Kansas City Wizards and the Red Bulls ended in a draw. Apparently the question "Who will fill Eddie Johnson's shoes?" has been answered by Yura Movsysian. Who? He wasn't as unlikely a hero as you might think: the KC sub really had shown some nice flashes here and there and was a first round draft pick (trust me: that does mean something in this league).



4. So Juan Pablo Angel has scored 8 goals in his first 7 matches. Insane. That's got to be a record. Some folks are going to be bummed that a premiership sub is tearing it up in MLS. (a) Don't be. The prem is still a world better than MLS; (b) I really think players without tons of speed but with great soccer brains can succeed in MLS (or other warm weather leagues) when they can't succeed in the prem. Even if MLS had unlimited money, I think we'd still find some very good players on the benches of the prem who were no longer able to get the job done in the hurly burly of England's top flight.

5. FC Dallas: the paper tigers of the west? Seriously, we've all figured out that the Toronto FCers weren't as bad as they first seemed. But you'd expect Dallas to handle them on the road. Instead, they get their tails handed to them by the FCers. Incidentally, Maurice Edu has really impressed me.

6. Abel Xavier's first major contribution to LA? Ball-watching while Chris Brown (!) marches in on Joe Cannon's goal and scores. Xavier later gets an assist on Edson Buddle's goal, but man, the guy is paid to defend. Incidentally, Chris Brown doesn't score many goals, but he's got to have some of the best goals from a career sub. He and John Wolyniec could put together the All-Journeyman Highlight Reel and it wouldn't look bad at all.

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 9

I was out of the country this weekend, so I didn't see any of the games. But the results confirm a couple of trends...

(1) Chicago needs Chris Rolfe and Justin Mapp. Love how they pass. Hate how they finish.

(2) Is Fred going to actually work out on the flank for DC? Pundits assumed that Fred, who prefers the center of the midfield, would slot in seemlessly out wide. He didn't. While his play isn't really the cause of United's slow start, their lack of width has allowed other teams to neutralize Moreno, Emilio and Gomez. But in DC's 4-2 victory against the Red Bulls, Fred got on the score sheet, as did Emilio. I'm assuming this means United actually opened up the field.

(3) Will Dallas drop like a rock without Cooper, who's out for two months due to injury? They are in first place in the west, but haven't convinced.

(4) And New York? Who we all decided was the real deal? They've put in a few ugly performances in a row. The team is really struggling with injuries, but I like their depth. Frankly, I think they should be doing better.

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 8

1. Don't be a hater. China didn't do too well against the US's European B team, but don't assume they're not improving. Yes, I know. They lost to Thailand. Some folks think they're worse than in 2002. Just remember that many of the same reasons that US fans like to think the US team has a great future (e.g. large population, commitment to sports, great sports infrastructure) apply equally, if not more, to China.

2. Clint Mathis is back to his old self. That means he's both scoring and getting red cards. He simply demands scrutiny from the ref. I didn't see his red card for throwing an elbow but heard that it was at least somewhat soft. But regardless, Mathis still hasn't learnt that jawing at refs is a good way to make sure that these kinds of calls will always go against him.

3. EJ is really back. Back to back hat tricks? Are you kidding? This is the guy we all left for dead months ago.


4. Two nil-nil draws on the same day. I didn't watch more than a few minutes of RSL's latest draw, but I tried to watch the late show between LA and DC. DC looked more like a real team (and should have been given all of the absences from LA's first team). LA, however, had supremely dangerous changes (that's what happens when Donovan is on your team). But overall? I fell asleep at the half. Did I miss anything?


5. Back to the US v China: I always like to remind people that, just because someone is playing on a reserve side in Europe, that's no reason to believe that they're national team material. Watching US v China, though, I could be forgiven for wanting to back away a little bit from that statement. Feilhaber's goal was sweet. And you had to like those few moments when Charlie Davies opened up. And that one sweet run from Lee Nyguyen... Just don't get too enamored of them-- they do need more work. Fans irrationally deplore failure, so they even more irrationally love new players who they haven't yet seen fail.


6. Nate Jacqua is really snakebit right now. I actually count myself as a fan and think that he's underrated. No, his skills aren't the best, but they're good enough given his size. But man, it's hard to keep on supporting the guy when he gets open in the box about six yards to the left of the goal and decided to shoot... straight ahead. Man, Nate, it doesn't look good.

7. Chad Barrett's goal against Columbus. Ok-- so little bulldog Chad Barrett pounces on a botched Columbus kick at midfield and realizes he's got nothing between him at the goal but about 50 yards of grass. The Crew's recent substitute, the lithe Kei Kamara, is presumably a lot faster than the stubby little Fire player and races after him. But Barrett pulls a Formula 1 move and somehow positions himself between Kamara and the ball for the entire sprint. The result? A cool finish for the game-winning goal. You've got to think that Kamara could have done a little better here somehow because I'm still scratching my head as to how Barrett pulled it off.

8. Hope he doesn't get paid by the hour. RSL's Ritchie Kotschau comes into the Revs-Real game in the 81st minutes. And gets red carded in the 82nd. The guy's been out of the league for a couple of years-- you wonder if he's wondering if he made the wrong decision to come back...

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 7

Well, I missed most of the weekend's games for the holiday weekend. Instead, I went to the Indy 500. But still, a few soccer-related thoughts came to me: while a number of soccer fans feel like they have to denigrate motorsports (and especially NASCAR) in part because NASCAR's made the kind of gains that soccer would love to make in the US, racing afficionados face many of the same challenges. The Indy 500 wasn't even televised live (well, at least not in Indianapolis according to one of my many servers this past weekend). Can you imagine that? Your signature event doesn't even make it on live tv?

I did see a couple of MLS highlights.
(1) Just when everyone's ready to annoint the Revolution as the best team in MLS, they trip up and lose 4-3 at home to the enigmatic KC Wizards. Eddie Johnson scores a hat trick and now leads the league in goals with six in eight games. Remember, his career best is only 12... He's on the Gold Cup roster, but we already know he can put three past Panama. We need to see Eddie at the Copa America to see whether he's an international player or not. I was unsure whether to declare the Wiz the real deal a couple of weeks ago, but I'm starting to form an opinion: I just want to see Marinelli fit enough to play 90 before passing judgment.

(2) Free kicks. Man, there were a couple of doozies. Too bad the replay of Christian Gomez's kick doesn't include him, you know, kicking the ball. But I can hardly blame the cameraman: the shot's from about 40 or so yards out. And then Jim Brennan in Toronto scores from about the same distance. Angel has already shown that he's a deep threat. My bottom line (and I've said it before): the foreign imports are going to teach MLS defenders not to foul needlessly anywhere in the vicinity of the goal. That's just one example of how even individual players can improve the standard of play all across the field.

(3) What moves does Chicago make? If they are going to be this bad until Blanco arrives, it may be too late. I don't share coach Dave Sarachan's assessment that they haven't been outplayed this season. In fact, I'd say they've been uniformly outplayed in almost every game but have put together such good moments sporadically that you might be inclined to forget. The team needs Rolfe and Mapp (who's now nursing a hamstring injury) in order to compete. Yes, I think the early season optimism that Jacqua and Herron wouldn't be missed was completely unfounded. The Fire need a goalscorer. And boy do they need some size on the field.

(4) What moves does LA make? When Becks arrives, LA will have two of the best players in the league. Will anyone around them be up to the task though? I don't think the roster looks too bad, so I'm a little surprised they're stuggling this much... Obviously, since their schedule is back-loaded, if there's any team that will have time to recover from a slow start, it's the LA Galaxy.

A Cure for What Ails You

So how bad were the Fire in last night's 3-0 pasting by New York?

Not really all that bad. They again showed themselves to be a good possession team that just doesn't have much of an idea about what to do with that possession. The tv pundits kept noting that Chicago "lacked the final pass". I agree, but it's not just that: sometimes Mapp would give Calen Carr or Barrett a good ball only for the young strikers to muck it up.

The Road to MLS Cup XII, Week 6

1. Teams that need a steering wheel: the Red Bulls and Chivas USA. The Red Rulls, with their loaded lineup, still need a linchpin. When healthy, that's going to be Claudio Reyna, who's been better than advertised. Without Reyna, the Bulls can look quite pedestrian, as they did last week in a 0-1 home loss to the Rapids(!) But it doesn't need to be Reyna: Bruce Arena moved forward Juan Pablo Angel back a few meters into the midfield and the result was that journeyman striker (and personal favorite) John Wolyniec looked great. Angel bossed the field and the Red Bulls destroyed the Crew 4-0. The Bulls can get all the great wing play they want from their wide players (and does anyone have a better mix than the Arby's, with Schopp, Van Den Bergh, Richards, and Freeman?), but they need someone in the center of the park to put order to it.

And that's what Chivas USA is finding out. I love the look of Chivas USA when they're on-- a bunch of guys who like possessing the ball. But Amado Guevara was going to be the linchpin of that offense and they look a little lost without him. Right now, Chivas USA seems to rely on two things: Panchito Mendoza's ability to clear up space elsewhere on the field with his slashing runs (with or without the ball at his feet) and passing combinations to confuse the defense. And they really do that well (the Telefutura announcer wasn't too far off when he said that Chivas was "asphyxiating the Galaxy"). So why did Chivas tie the Galaxy this weekend? Because they don't have a single person who can make that final pass. Ante Razov might be the best passer up front from the Goats, but the fact is that you want him to be taking (many) shots at goal. Kljesten, Bornstein and Mendoza are fantastic players who will key components on any offense, but you need someone to put it all together. Right now, no one's getting balls to Cuban speedster Maykel Galindo and the Goats are suffering because of it.

The Gals, for their part, looked pretty pedestrian, but... the "veteranisimo" Cobi Jones showed a couple of times why having a soccer brain is so important. On at least two occasions, he played insightful balls forward that Donovan was able to take advantage of. That just further underscores why Chivas USA needs a playmaker (and, incidentally, why the Galaxy need a supporting cast for Lando): during the first half, Cobi freaking Jones looked the most like a pure Number 10 on the field.

2. All This and Nothing: the Chicago Fire. Tongues were wagging when coach Dave Sarachan left volatile Wayne Rooney-think-alike Chad Barrett on the bench on Thursday against Dallas. But Barrett's replacement, Calen Carr, had done enough in spot duty to warrant a start (although he clearly needs more seasoning in front of goal). The real problem is that Chicago doesn't have any ideas. The Fire are still, for my money, the team that loves the ball the most, but damn if they don't have any ideas about what to do with it. Justin Mapp might be a metaphor for the entire team: he may be at turns the best player in the league, but sometimes you wonder if anything will come of it.

I think Dave Sarachan's plan follows the underwear gnome school of coaching: Step 1 Get the ball to Mapp or Rolfe, Step 2 ???, Step 3 GOAL!!! With Rolfe out against FC Burn, the Fire looked like they had even fewer ideas. Sure, they possessed the ball and had some gorgeous sequences. But what did it come to? A 1-2 home defeat to their Brimstone Cup rivals. The best thing you can say about first-time Fire starter Pascal Bedrossian? I hear he played in Europe. Maybe the guy needs more time to settle in, but right now it's not clear why he's starting in MLS (or getting paid decent bank to do so).

Incidentally, Big D's D deserves a lot of credit for their away win: they really worked as a unit to contain an impressive Justin Mapp.

3. All Quiet on the Wasatch Front. Ok-- so they dropped one to FC Dallas, but Jason Kreis's Real Salt Lake is a much better team than John Ellinger's Real Salt Lake. They still need help on defense-- and the loss of Carey Talley in the 10th minute against Dallas didn't help-- but this team is defending better. And as a result, their luxury attacking team is doing better as well, led by none other than Freddy Adu. When your team is not in total crisis, Adu is a nice guy to have around. He seems to do just enough things very well to make people keep saying "Just wait til he develops." I hope Adu keeps pushing himself, but I wonder if we won't all be better off when he realizes that he's a great role player. I mean, the guy draws defenders away, he wins corners-- he's a nice guy to have on the field. But he might never be a star. And that would be ok-- he could probably still be a national teamer if he learned to do a little more dirty work.

4. Karma has paid the Revs back. The Revs deserved better than their season-opening loss to Chicago after only letting in one goal in a first half that the Fire absolutely dominated. The Revs have looked much better since then and you could say that they hadn't been outplayed since. Until their match against Houston. The Revs looked pretty rough (with Andy "We Don't Need Dempsey" Dorman taken off at the half), but they still were able to grind out a win against a frustrated Dynamo team. Call it a mulligan-- the Revs are the best team in MLS. I'm circling July 14th against the Red Bulls-- I think both teams will still be in the elite.

5. The Elite. A couple weeks back, we didn't know who the elite was. Now, I think it's pretty clear that at least two teams are there: the Arby's and the Revs. I'm not ready to anoint FC Dallas just yet, but Juan Toja is a monster pickup who may have launched them into the elite. I think the Wiz still have a ways to go.

6. Guile Monster. Schelotto has yet to turn Cbus around. The result this weekend (a demoralizing 4-0 demolition at the hands of the Red Bulls) would get many coaches fired. Still, Guile showed why everyone was so excited about him: he lined up for one free kick about 40 yards out and... hit the crossbar. He'll make a couple of those eventually. That's just not a threat most MLS teams have. But Guile and (obviously) Beckham will teach MLS defenders to take more care even far from goal. I couldn't help but recall Tim Howard's first game for Man U against Arsenal in the Charity Shield. Thierry Henry was lining up for long-distance free kick. Howard casually set up a three man wall despite Roy Keane's angry insistence that the wall be comprised of at least four. And... Henry hits a perfect shot, the likes of which Howard had never seen in MLS. Here's hoping our next European goalkeeper exports get a little more exposure to dead ball experts.

The Outlaw Jozy Altidore

By now, everyone's seen teen phenom Jozy Altidore's "IMpossible is nothing" Adidas spot. In it, he starts out by saying that, when he was 5, he kicked the ball so hard that parents were worried he'd hurt the other kids. So, he had to play with older kids.

But you wonder how the parents of the 8 year olds felt when Jozy shoots his ball through their children's sternum-- definitely a mortal blow: in the commercial, a cartoon Altidore kicks the ball through three cartoon defenders to score a goal.

At least there was no Doom-style splatter.

Toronto FC-- Every Dog has its Day

The top story this week is easy: Toronto FC 3: Chicago Fire 1.

The expansion team gets its first goal, first red card and first win. Naturally, everyone had picked the Fire to dominate this game. But I think this ending was as foreshadowed as Macbeth killing the king:

First, I had asked earlier if the Fire were a paper tiger. Despite compiling an impressive record against the league's best teams, the Fire have been outplayed in large stretches of every match except against Kansas City. They are capable of playing the best soccer in the league on the backs of Justin Mapp and Chris Rolfe, but they are a supremely fragile team that has had a few breaks go their way.

Second, Toronto really weren't as bad as they seemed. Initially, a number of good soccer writers thought that FC would be a decent expansion side. Probably no one expected struggles to rival Real Salt Lake: Toronto had a pretty impressive array of talent-- Eskandarian and Buddle are both [i]capable[/i] of 10 goal seasons. Ronnie O'Brien and Richard Mulrooney are perhaps the best in MLS at their positions. And Mo Johnston had put together a roster full of guys on defense who had played in EUROPE! This team was going to be pretty good. AND they had Conor Casey, who had also played in EUROPE!

So how did this team go 0-4 without any goals to start the season-- and how did they put together this win at home?
(1) Mo Johnston went out and got some MLS defenders. Marvell Wynne and Kevin "Bobcat" Goldthwaite aren't exactly MLS Best XI defenders, but they've both played in this league. In contrast, Marco Reda came from Songdal in Norway. I think the Norwegian league is probably equivalent to MLS. BUT success there is absolutely no guarantee of success in MLS. Trotting out English first division players and Scandinavian top flight veterans is not a recipe for an MLS Championship.

Goldthwaite instantly repaid Mo Jo's decision to bring him in by having a career game against Chicago and even scoring a goal. There should a rule-- let's call MLS Expansion Rule No. 1-- If you want to be successful in MLS, build from the back. MLS defenders don't cost much money, but you need a few solid veterans if you want to make a run. Salt Lake is the perfect example of how to screw this up: John Ellinger never learned Rule No.1, but I bet Kreis is smarter and will spend some of the money RSL is getting from the league (ironically, to compensate for Kreis's retirement as a player...) on defensive-minded veterans.

(2) Settling things in the back really helped out Toronto's midfield. Andy Welsh, in particular, looked like he figured out to play in MLS, but a lot of that had to do with just getting the ball in better positions.

(3) The acquisition of Dichio looms large. Danny Dichio has the potential to be a major MLS scorer. Forget his and Mo Jo's hype about how MLS defenders have never seen anything like him (part of the whole massive Canadian and European tendency to want to "educate" us about soccer). It's hardly the first time that MLS defenders have faced an imposing target forward (geez-- remember Mamadou Diallo?). But Dichio will cause trouble-- and he certainly did for Chicago. It's fitting that he'd score FC's first ever goal.

(4) Ronnie O'Brien is a bad ass. Simply put, some of Toronto's problems just come down to the fact that O'Brien, the best player on their roster, was injured. O'Brien, with his leg so wrapped in tape that he looked like the Michelin Man, was massively influential. He didn't get on the board, but his vicious long range blasts made defenders step up-- which created space in the box.

(5) No. 1 draft pick Maurice Edu is solid. He too was injured for the first couple of games. He played well enough in the first two, but against Chicago, he had his coming out party.

(6) The fans. No, Toronto's not the first MLS town to have passionate fans. But the fans created an imposing atmosphere, throwing approximately all 20,000 seat cushions that had been given away at the gates. When the TV announcers mentioned at the half that Chicago had requested a covered bench, you kind of wondered if it was all over for the Fire. Sure enough, they came out of the break tentatively and were rightly punished by FC.

Put it all together: Mo Jo's biggest mistake was not putting together an MLS-ready defense. FC suffered a few key injuries. And that was a recipe for a terrible starts. But with the addition of two MLS defenders, one bull of a center forward, and the return from injury of O'Brien and Edu, Toronto should be much better from here out.

MLS Salaries: Some Folks Just Don't Get It

http://www.latimes.com/sports/soccer/galaxy/la-sp-soccer8may08,1,1603115.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-soccer-gal

More than a few commentators have blasted MLS as a "low cost league" by pointing out that developmental players on MLS squads can make as little $12,900 a year.

Ah, such short memories.

MLS didn't always pay so little but that's because the developmental player positions did not exist. Teams were limited to 18 players-- their depth was severely challenged on a regular basis. And if MLS teams did have any reserve players, they would have had few chances to play-- the reserve league wasn't even a glimmer in the league's eye. The league brass made the decision, with the full agreement of the players' union, that they were going to expand the rosters-- they made the decision to employ more soccer players-- these players were expected to be marginal players-- they wouldn't have made the old 18 man roster for any MLS teams. As such, they were going to be classified as "developmental" players and be paid quasi-internship wages. Critics of the program didn't balk at the low wages-- instead, they just assumed that any players uncovered by the program would be low-quality and wouldn't have any impact.

But a funny thing happened: some of these developmental players started banging in goals, like Herculez Gomez. Others started on their teams, and soon became league stars, like Bobby Boswell. Then the argument about the developmental players shifted: how could MLS actually be paying starters peanuts? Sure, Boswell and Gomez both renegotiated their deals, but it did take some time-- and not everyone is so lucky. But does this mean that we should pay all developmental players more?

NO.

I don't ever want to see the day when MLS doesn't have a few players on the payroll making $12,000. Let me explain: I'm not opposed to the players negotiating for whatever they can get. If we gave all current developmental players a 100% increase, that would be great, but only if we then expanded rosters to include a few more young players who only make $12k. Why? Because some players are so risky that they are only worth 12k. But, as we've seen with the developmental player program, some of those guys WILL develop into stars. If you eliminate 12k developmental slots on teams, those guys simply won't get picked up at all.

Some folks will say that paying players so little is automatically a black-eye for the league. Hardly: as Ivan Gazidis of MLS points out, developmental player salaries are equivalent to minor league baseball player salaries. Of course, Gazidis neglects to mention that if a minor leaguer gets called to the bigs, he automatically gets paid a Major League salary. Maybe some mechanism like that is the way forward for MLS: if a developmental player plays in a league game, he should be paid a pro-rated share of the senior roster minimum of $30,000. But for godsakes, don't eliminate the "minor league" ballplayers from the MLS pool-- just expand the opportunities in front of them.

The Road to MLS Cup, Week 4

Some early season questions have been answered-- there were some players who could really go either way this year, but the following guys now must be considered to be impact players:

1. Clint Mathis. I almost don't want to write about this guy because so much ink's already been spilled. I, like almost everyone, had written the guy off. But then we caught a glimpse of the old Cleetus in last year's playoffs, and despite your better judgment, you start to think maybe Mathis still has it. The start to the season, with 3 goals and 2 assists (and only one ejection so far!), couldn't be better. Can he keep going? In a way, that's the wrong question. With the shining exception of the 2000 season, when he was the most explosive US player of the modern era, Mathis has always been inconsistent, so I won't be shocked if there are more outbursts and more trouble ahead. So true consistency is really too much to ask: instead, be happy that the mercurial talent is producing at all.

2. Khano Smith. The Revs' Bermudan winger is a great example of something MLS does well: the league is the best platform for Carribean players. I think Smith is poised for a breakout year-- defenses are constantly shifting to try to contain him (witness Chicago moving Dasan Robinson to try to get someone who could at least slow Smith-- it worked-- sort of-- Chicago ended up losing track of players and losing 3-1). And when you consider that the Revs have Steve Ralston, MLS's all-time best crosser, banging in balls from the other side of the field, it's a true compliment to Smith's abilities.

3. Chris Rolfe. There's something off about Chicago's Chris Rolfe. After Rolfe had some rookie success after joining the league as a supremely unheralded rookie, I read an interview with him. He basically said that he lacked confidence and wasn't at all sure of his abilities. Stunning admissions from a professional athlete-- never mind a budding star and national team member who can dazzle with his trickery. But sometimes, you can see the uncertainty eat at Rolfe-- he seems to take failure hard. But so far this year (and to be fair, every year), Rolfe has been The Man for the Fire.

4. Maykel Galindo. His goal-scoring for Chivas USA has definitely taken some of the load off of Ante Razov.

5. Roberto Brown. Another Latin American goal-scorer-- these guys are great acquisitions for any team that puts in the time to scout them. It really makes you wonder why more MLS teams haven't benefited.

I want his agent!

The list of MLS player salaries is out today here:
http://www.mlsplayers.org/files/5_2_07_salary_info_club.pdf

As always, you can scan the list and find great players still stuck on their first or second contracts (e.g. 2006 MLS Defender of the Year Bobby Boswell makes $30,000... At least he has his good looks to fall back on, and can probably get some sort of sugar momma action. Chad Barrett doesn't make much more money and looks like a slightly less attractive Wayne Rooney.) However, this year's most underpaid player is possibly New England's Andy Dorman at less than $31,000. He's had to step into Clint Dempsey's Texas-sized shoes and has done a pretty good job so far-- Revs head coach Little Steven sures know how to find some bargains.

But I've got to say it works both ways-- there are a few players that have done well for themselves. Example 1: Not 2006 MLS Defender of the Year Patrick Ianni. His MLS career, which began last year consists of TWO minutes. His salary: guaranteed $103,000, or more that 3 times Mr. Boswell's. According to his MLS bio (here: http://houston.mlsnet.com/players/bio.jsp?team=t200&player=ianni_p&playerId=ian432955&statType=current), his hobbies include "reading, studying God’s Word", so maybe there's something to this religion thing.

The Second Coming of Kreis

I was confused on Tuesday morning, which is nothing out of the ordinary. But I was scratching my head with particular vigor because I couldn't quite understand how head coach John Ellinger still had a job after an ugly defeat on Monday night for his Real Salt Lake team against the rival Colorado Rapids. And the Rapids weren't just rivals: one of their players, Pablo Mastroeni, had even gotten into a screaming match with Dave Checketts, Real's owner following a match last season.

In other words, it was a must-win game.

But Tuesday morning came and went. No word from Salt Lake. Chelsea and Man U came and went. Still no word from Salt Lake.

But today, we got a bombshell: Jason Kreis, the Real capitan and all-time MLS leading goalscorer, was retiring as a player to take over as head coach.

It's a decision I have a tough time understanding. Yes, it was time for Ellinger to go-- he made too many mistakes in his MLS career (from taking talented, but not ready for Primetime Nik Basagno with his first pick in 2005, to trading away all-important allocations, to... not protecting key player Jason Kreis in the expansion draft this year and needing to use a partial allocation to get him back) and his team this year seemed to perform well below the collective level of its luxurious pieces.

But I have a feeling that success for RSL needs to consist of more than a resolution to "make fewer mistakes": I think they need an experienced, tactically adept coach who can actually make something of the disparate pieces. Is Kreis that guy? He seems like a smart guy-- and always was a smart player, but you wonder if he's going to have the tools to do this job.

And I'm also disappointed to see one of the league's all-time greats go out this way. Critics will point out that Kreis never really made it with the US national team as proof that he really wasn't that great in the first place (although his supporters might also point out that he didn't really have too many chances...) I'd sidestep that debate: Kreis's skillset was ideal for hot days in Dallas: not fast, but quick-thinking, with a good eye for players making precious runs and a cannon shot when tired defenders hesitated on closing him down. He could be absolutely deadly-- and I'm a little sad that he won't add to his 108 goals. An exciting, if unusual, race was developing: two slowing down MLS stars, Jaime Moreno and Kreis battling for the all-time goal lead. They were racing not just each other, but the end of their playing careers. With guys like Razov and Cunningham not far behind (not too mention younger guys like Twellman and Ruiz), it's possible the any victory in this battle would have been purely Pyrrhic. But definitely, a part of me wanted to see Moreno and Kreis duke it out for at least one more year.

Kreis deserves credit for a great MLS career-- and for being an American goalscorer during a period when all of the leaders were imported. It's a shame RSL couldn't send him off with a victory, but perhaps inevitable, considering the circumstances of his retirement. All you can do is wish this true class act all the best, as he starts work on the Sisyphean task of making RSL less sucky.

Soccer Etiquette, by A Canadian

On a fundamental level, I am wary of cross-cultural attempts to "educate" people. From British attempts to teach me dental hygiene to the well-intentioned efforts of Peace Corps volunteers to teach New Guinea tribes how to farm which ended in the near total destruction of the tribes' eco-system, the education is often worse than ignorance.

So now that Toronto FC is in the league, we've got Canadians lecturing us on soccer etiquette, which is vaguely like William Shatner giving singing lessons.

http://www.thestar.com/columnists/article/209992

First, I've got to give respect to the Toronto Star for great soccer coverage. Second, I've got to give a ridiculous amount of respect to the footie fans in Toronto: their support of their truly godawful team IS inspiring. The 14,000 season tickets sold is a league record, by a large margin.

But here's what Toronto is not: the first city to get real "European-style" support for its MLS team. Cathal Kelly, the Toronto Star columnist, is new to the league and can be forgiven for not knowing this. Kelly can also be forgiven for being excited about the team: these are heady moments in Toronto soccer history.

Kelly was writing about the first MLS goal scored in Beemo Field during Toronto's home opener: despite an organized effort by Toronto, Kansas City's Eddie Johnson broke free and scored the game winner. He proceded to make "a beeline for the fans in the rowdy south end. Once there, he spread his legs, threw up his arms and presented himself like Liza Minnelli finishing up the closing number in Cabaret."

But here's where Kelly goes wrong: "In most other cities in Major League Soccer, the fans would have stared mutely. In most other countries, they would have poured out of the stands to kill him. Toronto struck the happy medium. One fan launched what appeared to be the contents of his beer mug at Johnson, striking a direct hit. More beer followed. Someone tossed an empty plastic water bottle."

Kelly reminds us then of the "international rule" of goal celebrations: you don't include the fans, unless they're your own. Finally, Kelly remarks "Now that MLS has arrived in Toronto, visiting teams must realize that north of the border there are new rules. Taunting will have repercussions."

Nice writing. But it's just not true. The article would be more convincing if Jozy Altidore hadn't just gotten a beer shower from Houston fans after scoring a goal. It would be more convincing if Clint Mathis hadn't actually gotten a beer shower from his own fans in 2003 after another poor performance (Clint, in a truly classy move, went after the fans in the stands). I don't even want to imagine what Chivas USA fans would do if Landon decided to shimmy shimmy shake in front of their hard-core support.

But while we're on the subject, it's not like MLS is the only place that such celebrations... Yes, even in Europe, once in a while, some player will cup his hand to his ear after scoring an away goal. As such, there's no need to lecture Johnson on the "international" rules...

Quote of the Day: Kyle Beckerman

So the Colorado Rapids and Real Salt Lake have a little bit of a rivalry-- they even have a nice-looking trophy to commemorate the winner of each season's series: the Rocky Mountain Cup, which Colorado has taken for the past two years. But as is so often the case, it's really the off-field antics that make the rivalry fun. Last year, after another Rapids victory, Colorado midfielder Pablo Mastroeni took off his shirt, stuffed it down his shorts and pointed to his crotch, which is universal sign language for "suck a fat one".

But Pablo proved equally adept at verbal communication and managed to get into an argument with Real's owner, Dave Checketts about his behavior in front of the fans.

So, with yesterday's game, when the Rapids score a couple of soft goals against a determined, but hardly inspired Real in Salt Lake, what do they do? They celebrate like they liberated Europe. Which leads to more boos and anger from both the crowd and players in Salt Lake.

Kyle Beckerman's response? "They run their mouth the whole game. If their team is mad when we celebrate (a win), tell them to win the game."
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5789426

Exactly right. You don't want Colorado Rapids players to act like 16 year old passing a driving test? Win the game.

It's got to be tough for the Real fans: they were committed and deserve special mention for being riled up for a Monday night game. But the bottom line is that they've got to start winning. Frankly, I'm shocked that head coach John Ellinger still has his job.