MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week Four

So, I've always wanted to try this, even though it seems like an impossible task.

It's one of those things that people argue about, mostly because they don't agree on what rankings should mean: do they mean the best team at this moment? Should they rank teams by their potential to reach the highest peak? Or should they reward consistency over the season?

For me, the answer is both. These attempted rankings combine both my assessment of a team's potential (which is why United isn't near the bottom) and their current form (which is why KC and Dallas do well).

To see if these rankings have any predictive power, I'm also going to test them against next week's results. Home teams will be considered favorites to win, unless a team is three spots above them in the rankings. In that case, a draw is predicted, unless the team is a total of six spots above their opponent in the rankings. We'll see...

1. FC Dallas. D looked shakey in the first couple of matches, but they might be settling down. Cooper is in form. That said, Dallas is first by default.

2. New England. I loved how they played in the face of adversity against Chicago and again against New York this past week. But ask yourself why they're always putting themselves into adverse situations?

3. Houston. A point on the road is good. Yes, they are in last place in the West. And I still don't know if Houston will be able to score, but I like the team otherwise. If Houston only has one problem, I expect that it will get fixed by Kinnear.

4. Kansas City. They are here because of results. I haven't watched enough games to get comfortable with the idea that Michael Harrington, Chance Myers, Kurt Morsink, Jack Jewsbury, Roger Espinoza and Tyson Wahl form the no-name backbone of an elite MLS team the same way that Brian Carrol, Brian Namoff and Josh Gros did with DC United. You underrate lesser known guys in MLS at your peril, so I'm not trying to do that here.

5. DC United. Gallardo might be an upgrade over Christian Gomez, but he doesn't give the team precisely what it needs, which is what Gomez did so well. The team also needs Ben Olsen's bite and leadership-- but Benny might not be returning soon. And Jaime Moreno is, indeed, a year older. The reworked defense has been both bad and unlucky. So why is United so high? C'mon. The team constructed to win the Champions Cup ought to be able to show a little professionalism in MLS and start winning games.

6. Chicago. I think they're underachievers. Justin Mapp had a good game yesterday against KC. Blanco was dangerous. Chad Barrett, when he wasn't imitating Shea Salinas, showed that he is useful. Frankowski does little things that MLS forwards don't do. But when you put it all together, they frequently look terrible.

7. Chivas USA. Something seems off in Goatland. Mendoza needs to develop into a true 10. Razov needs to stay healthy. Klejstan needs to stay on the field. Maybe the defeat against Dallas is because none of those things happened. But I'm not sure this year's Chivas is a #1 seed.

8. Columbus. They're 3-1-0, so it's probably harsh to rank them here, but I guess I just don't believe it. Then I look at their roster against DC:

1 - Will Hesmer (GK)
2 - Frankie Hejduk
4 - Gino Padula
5 - Danny O'Rourke
7 - Guillermo Barros Schelotto
10 - Alejandro Moreno
12 - Eddie Gaven 63
14 - Chad Marshall
16 - Brian Carroll
19 - Robbie Rogers 90
22 - Adam Moffat 85

To me, that looks like a good MLS roster, full of potential MLS superstars. That said, the Crew has been full of potential superstars for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked out well.

9. Toronto FC. I might be ranking them too high here, but I'm impressed by Robert's efficiency. Guevara is an MLS superstar. Jeff Cunningham can score goals. Edu is awesome. At some point, you add enough good players, you become a good team, right? I think TFC has added enough good players.

10. Colorado. I know the kids are supposed to be budding superstars, all. Colin Clark, indeed, looks like the real deal, but I haven't watched enough of DiRaimundo and LaBrocca to say for sure. But I do know that young players hit walls and that Colorado's defense includes both Erpen and Burciaga. I think they're heading for a fall.

11. New York. I want to rank them highly. I really do. When Angel returns from injury (permanently), they'll do better. But I think we've seen the league pass this team by. They've got a lot of question marks all over the field (even up top: can Wolyniec still be spark plug off the bench?)

12. LA. They just look like a deeply flawed team. Some of the problems might be easier to fix (surely, somewhere in the world, there's got to be a better forward who will take the $70,000 that Alan Gordon is getting). But there's just too much non-descript talent on this team right now. That said, if any tandem in the league can put a team into the playoffs on pure talent and willpower, it is LD and Beckham.

13. SJ. LA pretty comprehensively handled SJ, but I think the California Derby should be good stuff this year. SJ really took it to Chicago and finally got their deserved points at Colorado. They are dangerous, but probably need a little more seasoning before they'll convert regularly.

14. RSL. Another team I'd like to rank more highly. I like Kreis's team-first philosophy. But outside of Kovalenko and Beckerman, is there anyone on the roster that isn't an enigma?

So, going by these rankings, here are the predictions for the week...

Thursday:
FCD-Revs: FCD win
Saturday:
TFC-KC: draw
Crew-Dynamo: draw
DCU-RSL: DCU win
Fire-Rapids: Fire win
Sunday:
LAG-CUSA: draw
NY-SJ: NY win