Don't Call It an Upset

The first round of MLS playoffs saw the two teams with the best records (number 1 seed, DC United and number 2 seed Chivas USA) go crashing out to the 7 and 8 seeds, Chicago and Kansas City.

And a number of people are upset about the "upsets". These folks believe that the playoff format (home and away in round one) doesn't give enough of an advantage to the higher seeds. Generally, they'd like to see MLS move to a best of three or single elimination.

Personally, I like single elimination, but I think the dissenters are off-base here. I don't think Chicago's triumph over United is really an upset at all: Chicago's been among the best teams in MLS since midseason, which coincidentally was when they added an experienced coach, a superstar midfielder and a talented and versitile defender. Their mediocre 10-10-10 record reflects the first half struggles of an almost entirely different team. And United, for their part, were hit by injuries to two key players right before the series started. An upset? Not really.

Kansas City's win over Chivas USA is, indeed, a bit more of an upset. But again, what do you expect? Chivas USA was missing its two leading scorers. The Goats were lucky during the regular season that their depth was never tested, but who was surprised to see them fall in Kansas City when they started Laurent Merlin and Jon Cunliffe up top? Kansas City earned their win, but Chivas USA lost because the dropoff from their starters to their bench was simply too large.

So if these aren't real upsets, what does this mean for the playoff format? It means you can't use these results as evidence that the playoff format isn't giving enough of an advantage to higher seeds. In theory, the advantage posed by having the Western Conference Champion facing a below .500 team ought to be more than enough. Do you really need more reward than facing Kansas City instead of, say, Houston? And the results since the playoff format was adopted in 2003 seem to bear this out: about 65-70% of the higher seeds have made it through the first round....