World Cup 2010...

So the qualification draw for the 2010 World Cup is already done.

The bad news is that I won't get to make any trips to pleasant Carribean islands in February to support the U.S. national team.

The good news is that the draw for the U.S. looks no better or worse than past draws.

The U.S. needs to beat the winner of Dominica-Barbados in June and then it would move on to a group of four, with two teams advancing. If the results pan out as expected (and generally, it would require a fairly big upset for them not to), the groups would be as follows:

Group 1
U.S.
Guatemala
Cuba
Trinidad and Tobago

These are each potentially tricky teams for the U.S. Each of the road trips will be difficult as each team is capable of taking points off the U.S. And who knows what playing in Havana will be like? If the U.S. starts off the campaign with a couple of games on the road, I wouldn't be shocked to see them with 2 points from 2 matches. But the U.S. should dominate at home, which will be enough to ensure their qualification for the final round.

Group 2
Mexico
Honduras
Canada
Jamaica

Whoa Nelly. I feel awfully bad for Canada. It seems like they're trying pretty hard north of the border to get their backwards soccer federation in order. And Canada sends a good number of players out to decent leagues (at least by CONCACAF standards), so there is talent. But this is a tough, tough group. Mexico, with its massive home field advatange and superior talent, ought to go through. But this is as tough a group as you can have at this stage.

Group 3

Costa Rica
El Salvador/Panama
Suriname/Montserrat/Guyana
Nicaragua/Haiti

I'd call this the weakest group. I expect Costa Rica to cruise. It's tough to call the winner of three of the pre-qualifying matches. Panama is no pushover, and El Salvador has fallen far, but you never know what you're going to get with the Central American sides. Haiti should beat Nicaragua, but, again, you really don't know what you're going to get with these teams.

Which means that Costa Rica is the clear winner here. Whoever else advances will just be making up numbers in the final round of qualification.