Sunday, May 4, 2008

MLS Power and Form Rankings, Week 6

Wow.

For a week that I thought would shake up the league, there are still more questions. We're now 1/5 of the way done with the season, but it's hard to pick out clear trends. The league has to be ecstatic that Beckham scored two goals in Salt Lake, but it's been a tougher road for other key players. On to the rankings...

1. Chicago (Last week: #5; beat #1 Revs away)

Winning 3-0 away is hard enough. Winning 3-0 away against a good team that you beat 4-0, partly on the back of a very early red card, takes it to another level. Chicago went to the Revs and had a game plan-- defend in numbers and play hard counter-attacking soccer. Having Chris Rolfe back on the field helped, and Blanco, although he didn't score or assist, has got to be one of the best players for counter-attacks because of his vision.

But is the Fire the best team in the league? Some of the things that make them a good team on the counter can make them look pretty awful when they have to control possession, and they are fortunate to have the points they do. But if John Thorington is back for good, Rolfe is healthy and old man Blanco stays on the field, the Fire have got to be looking at their rivals and asking "Why not us?"

2. Columbus (Last week: #6; beat #8 KC at home)

The Crew top the league tables. They won the battle of the sleeper teams against KC fairly comfortably. Robbie Rogers looks like he's fulfilling his promise. And Alejandro Moreno is on the goal leaderboard.

So why aren't the Crew #1? Partly, it's because they've amassed their record against teams in precisely the right moment. It looked like a brutal schedule ahead of the season, with early season tilts against Houston, DC and Chivas. But all three of those teams have yet to get going. Their win against Toronto occurred before the Reds added a couple of studs to the roster. I have a feeling that they are paper tigers.

But there's another side to winning against teams in difficult moments: up to a point, it just doesn't matter as long as you get the points. The 2000 KC Wizards weren't necessarily the best team in the league despite a record winning streak, but they were winners and eventually champions. I could see the Crew doing something similar.

3. FC Dallas (Last week: #2; tied #13 San Jose away)

I expect better from Dallas than an away tie against an expansion team. But it wasn't just a case of balls not falling-- Dallas just didn't get going, despite having a high-powered offense. So we'll call it an off week. Besides, who's clearly better?

4. New England Revolution (Last week: #1; lost to #5 Fire at home)

New England was miserable, apparently more motivated by revenge than soccer sense.

But Twellman is back soon, Ralston played as a sub and the Revs aren't a bad team.

5. Houston (Last week: #4; tied #9 Chivas at home)

Good teams win at home. Houston again dictated terms in its home match against Chivas, but couldn't find its way to goal. They need to do better, but I'm not going to rank them lower until they start playing really poorly.

The risk is that, just as the 2000 KC Wizards turned winning into a habit just by playing uninspiring but absolutely consistent soccer, Houston can turn losing into a habit, despite having the horses to ride so much harder.

6. Toronto (Last week: #7; tied #11 New York)
Now that Toronto's playing with the big boys, it's not enough to put in a decent effort. And they were fortunate Laurent Robert caught the NY D napping. I am wondering why Jeff Cunningham isn't getting more chances. Dichio is useful, but if Cunningham still has it, he's far superior.

7. DC United (Last week: #3; lost to #12 Colorado)
DC hasn't won in Colorado in 8 years, but I though they were superior enough to Colorado to pull it out. But United was not up to the task. They were lucky to go down only by two goals. That said, I wouldn't penalize a team too much for an away loss, especially in such a tough place to play.

So United's not dropping four places because of the loss. They're dropping three places because of this:
Ben Olsen Is Not Coming Back Soon.

United is famous for its great foreign players, like Etch, Moreno, Gomez, Emilio and now Gallardo. But much of their recent success has come from more humble names: Gros, Carroll, Namoff and most of all Ben Olsen. These guys provided bite and energy. Only Namoff remains. The replacements for these players may, in fact, be superior players, but there is no replacement for their work rate.

But the loss of Olsen is the hardest hit. United simply is not as good a team without him.

8. Colorado (Last week: #12; beat #3 United at home)
Colorado absolutely dominated DC. Yes, they did give up more than a few chances, but they also could have scored more. LaBrocca, Cummings and Jacobsen created more than the United defense could handle. When Jacobsen finally scored his wonder goal, you couldn't call yourself surprised.

9. Chivas USA (Last week: #9; tied #4 Houston away)
Yes, they got a point away. But yes, they got dominated and their shambolic defense will lose Claudio Suarez to a red card suspension. This might be what you can expect from the Goats this year.

10. New York (Last week: #11; tied #7 Toronto away)
A few thoughts: the team looked better with Reyna than Ubiparovich in the middle... Dane Richards' speed also changed the game (for the better). Angel and Altidore were relatively quiet. I think NY has weapons, but they're just not an inspiring team at this point.

11. Kansas City (Last week: #8; lost to #6 Columbus away)
The pieces aren't there for this team to take advantage of Lopez.

12. LA Galaxy (Last week: #10; ties #14 Real Salt Lake away)
It took the Gals a half to figure out Salt Lake's turf, and then Beckham scores twice. Don Garber rejoices.

They probably don't deserve to drop two places, but are they better than any of the teams above them?

13. San Jose (Last week: #13; ties #2 Dallas at home)
Ronnie O'Brien and Ivan Guerrero are actually good players. Who knew? Judging by some reports, it's breaking news.

San Jose is capable of controlling play. The forwards still aren't good enough. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

14. Real Salt Lake (Last week: #14; ties #10 Galaxy at home)
The optimist says "Hey RSL got a point!" The pessimist notes that they were up by two goals. Despite all the talk about their improvement, does anyone really think they'll make the playoffs?

In other news, Javier Morales has 4 assists already. Is he the secret hero for the Gulls?

Next week
DCU-CHI: Tie
HOU-COL: Houston win
RSL-DAL: Dallas win
SJ-CLB: Cbus win
LA-NY: LA win
Chivas-NE: Chivas win

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